The Mid-American Gambler: The Odds are Against The MAC in Week One
Welcome to the Mid-American Gambler, a weekly post where I, a notoriously shitty gambler, try to help you, the responsible adult, become a notoriously shitty gambler. Who knows, maybe you’ll get lucky a time or two.
I do not advise anyone, of any age, to gamble online or otherwise on football games. I do, however, find betting lines fascinating and fun to discuss and predict. They are inherently debatable as they are designed for exactly half of people to be wrong. Also, I like saying “take the points.”
The lines that show up here are from vegasinsider.com, and I’ll take a look at every MAC line to-date along with some fun extras in the G5 from time to time. I will make a choice on every single one, too. None of this “stay away” stuff. Scared money don’t make no money.*
*this is an awful legal defense
Western Michigan @ USC (-27)
The new-look Broncos head to California to kick off their season, and presumably they’ll be led by redshirt sophomore Jon Wassink. Hell of a way to begin a career, no doubt. The line opened at -19 which seems a bit low, and apparently some gamblers felt the same, because the Trojans enter week one as 27-point favorites.
Four touchdowns is, by any measure, an ass-whooping, and taking the Trojans here means you think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I’d like to not bet against my alma mater here, but I think the Trojans are a decent bet to cover. USC is experienced, led by wunderkind Sam Darnold under center — likely the first overall pick in next spring’s NFL draft. They also bring back their leading rusher from a year ago in junior Ronald Jones, who rushed for over one thousand yards at 6.1 yards per carry. It will be fun to see how WMU’s backfield of Jamauri Bogan and Jarvion Franklin responds to the Trojan defense, but a lot of the success could come in the middle of the game.
USC -27
UNC Charlotte @ Eastern Michigan (-14)
It’s not every day you see EMU favored in a football game. They’ve been the favorite in just 14 games since 2007. The Eagles are 4–10 against the spread in those games, including 3–10 as home favorites, the situation they find themselves in week one. The good news is that the Eagles were 10–3 against the spread in 2016, and appear to be turning a corner under Chris Creighton. I don’t think EMU is going to make you sweat out a match up like this anymore so long as he’s at the helm. Take the Eagles.
Eastern Michigan -14
Buffalo @ Minnesota (-26)
Tyree Jackson and the Bulls have nowhere to go but up, and for Lance Leipold’s sake they had better. Unfortunately for Buffalo, the new head coach at Minnesota is familiar with them, and his last team beat the Bulls quite soundly after hosting College Gameday.
P.J. Fleck’s squad gets 1,800 yards of rushing offense back despite some losses in the passing game, and shouldn’t have an issue gashing the Bulls on the ground. But the Gophers are 2–8 the last two seasons against the spread at home, and the new boat rowers will have some kinks to work out, so Buffalo, while atrocious on paper, can reasonably beat the spread.
Buffalo +26
Ball State @ Illinois (-7.5)
It’s the battle between potential last-place teams that nobody asked for, but the Big Ten Network is going to air anyway! When we last saw Lovie Smith’s Illini against a MAC school, they were seen giving up nearly 300 yards on the ground to Western Michigan. Ball State’s offensive line isn’t quite as good, but their feature back could be better. Look for James Gilbert to open the season in a big way against one of the Big Ten’s worst teams
Ball State +7.5
Boston College (-2.5) @ Northern Illinois
The Huskies actually opened as a slight favorite in this game, but now find themselves underdogs at home. And that’s completely fair. It looks like Ryan Graham will be the answer at quarterback — at least for now — and that should give us a good idea of what the Huskies will be able to do at the start of the season. He’s the most experienced option, and, quite frankly, more equipped to struggle against the BC defense without losing any confidence.
I think the Huskies are better than advertised, and running back Jordan Huff is primed for a breakout year behind that offensive line. This game will be a slog, probably something of the 17–14 type, if anyone can actually make a kick. The Eagles are anemic on offense, and you should absolutely take the Huskies and the dang points.
Northern Illinois +2.5
Kent State @ Clemson (-38.5)
When I first saw Kent State’s schedule for this season I thought “What in the name of Nick Saban’s Lifeless Stare is wrong with you?” Then I remembered it’s probably a substantial payday for the athletic department, considering they complete their death tour of the ACC with Louisville a few weeks later. Kent State isn’t likely to beat many teams regardless of caliber, so why not get paid by the defending champs?
Speaking of payday, 38.5 points is a lot, and Kent State is usually decent on defense, but week one in Death Valley is going to get ugly, championship hangover and all. Take the Tigers.
Clemson -38.5
Akron @ Penn State (-33)
You know, it really should have been the Nittany Lions getting shutout in that playoff last year instead of Ohio State. If the people that say things about sports for money are to be believed, Penn State could be in position to crash the party again. Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorely are both back, and will take on a Zips defense that was nothing short of awful a season ago.
The Zips think they can get back to 2015’s form provided they stay healthy. And unless everyone drops like flies these final days of camp, they should be better than last year. Barkley is going to rush for 200 yards in this game, but if he needs a lot of carries to do it, the time could run out before Penn State can really cover the spread. In Ulysees Gilbert I trust. Remember: good teams win, great teams cover.
Akron -33
Bowling Green @ Michigan State (-18)
Michigan State appears to be in a bad place right now, and under Mark Dantonio that usually means they’re about to go to the Rose Bowl. But on paper it just doesn’t add up. These Spartans shouldn’t be favored by 18 points over many teams, and I think the Falcons are being slept on since they underachieved at Notre Dame like proportions in 2016 (gotta get these 4–8 jokes out before the season kicks off).
The James Morgan to Scott Miller connection in Bowling Green is for real, and the Spartans could struggle on defense. The Falcons aren’t going to win the game, but you’re going to see why many think the Spartans have another year of growing pains before they return to form.
*clears throat* TAKE THE POINTS!
Bowling Green +18
Miami @ Marshall
There are no points to take here, because nobody’s getting any. We’re going to have to pick a winner, and unfortunately, it won’t be easy.
The Thundering Herd are coming off a 3–9 season after spending three straight years in double digits, winning 33 games since the start of 2013. They return every player that recorded a rushing attempt from 2016, and should be back to their old selves in no time, which doesn’t bode well for Miami. Marshall is also quite good at home in general, with last year being a bit of a hiccup.
But the RedHawks are better too, and look poised to compete for a MAC title. Gus Ragland was quite the spark for Chuck Martin’s team last year, and he’ll start week one this time around. Miami is pretty good against the spread, going 9–4 last year and a winning record the previous two years despite losing pretty much every game straight up.
Are the RedHawks good enough to beat a G5 stalwart like Marshall? I really don’t know, and when you don’t know, take the home team.
Marshall - PK
The Rest of the MAC
I didn’t forget Toledo, Central Michigan and Ohio, they just play Elon, Rhode Island and Hampton, respectively, so there’s no lines to throw your money away on this week.
Around the G5
Colorado State @ Colorado (-6.5)
I love early season rivalry games. In fact, if the MAC moved to rivalry games played on week one of the conference season each year, that would be okay by me. But alas, we’ll have to endure another midweek disaster before that ever happens. Instead, look to Colorado-Colorado State for the favorite G5 bet of the week.
I got burned on the Rams last year, but this time should be different. The Buffaloes have to replace their leading passer and second leading rusher in Sefo Liufau (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), and have just three returning starters on defense. Colorado State counters with senior quarterback Nick Stevens, a second team All Mountain West Conference performer from a year ago, and should lead the Rams out of the gate a little better than last year, where they punted on their opening four possessions in the Rocky Mountain Showdown.
Give me the Rams and those precious points. Should be a fun Friday night in Denver when the calendar hits September.
Colorado State +6.5
