Mid American Gambler Likes Buffalo, Michigan and Maryland in Week Two
Week one was tough but hey, sometimes the bear eats you

Welcome to the Mid-American Gambler, a weekly installment where Justin makes his picks against the spread on every MAC football game (and a few others too). You can follow him on Twitter @NIFFOCNITSUJ or email him at fosatblog@gmail.com.
I’ll let Sam Elliot summarize my thoughts on week one:
Through one week we sit at 3–6 against the spread. It’s not great, but it could definitely be worse. Extra special shouts out to Oregon, UCF and yes, even Central Michigan for cooperating in these tough times.
Apologies to Kent State, who I doubted against Illinois. I’m going to doubt you again sometime in the near future and might even be right in doing so, but on this day you are trending upward. Cherish it. Here’s to hoping I won’t owe any apologies again next week. Now let’s go get back on track:
Western Michigan @ Michigan (-28.5)
There’s a reason many in expert land thought Michigan could be a playoff team. It’s a very good football team. My guess is everything that went wrong last week and the shock that came with it had more to do with Notre Dame than anything else.
Western Michigan is not Notre Dame, especially on defense. The Broncos need to pressure Shea Patterson to have a shot, and that’s all provided they stop the run in the first place. I don’t think they can duplicate the pressure the Irish were able to apply frequently enough to cover this total. Keep an eye on the special teams play of WMU early. If they don’t figure out their issues from last week (Syracuse started drives, on average, near their own 45 yard line) it could spell a big, early lead for Michigan.
Eastern Michigan (+16.5) @ Purdue
In the last two seasons Eastern Michigan is 10–1 against the spread as a road underdog. The Eagles are 12–4 against the spread in the non conference schedule under Chris Creighton. History is begging me to pick the Eagles (when can this ever be said about EMU history?), and I’m going to listen to it.
The Eagles are strong on defense. The big question for me in this game is if they are strong enough to slow down Rondale Moore, the Purdue freshman that set the school record for all purpose yards in a single game last week against Northwestern. Imagine having the most productive game in your school’s history in your first ever game! If EMU succeeds in slowing down the Purdue offense it could be in a position not only to cover but to win straight up.
Kansas @ Central Michigan (-5)
Under John Bonamego the Chippewas are 5–3 against the spread against Power Five opponents including a 45–27 win at Kansas a year ago. Central’s going to have growing pains on offense this year, but beating Kansas soundly in your home opener should be expected even in a down year.
Ball State (+34.5) @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 5–8 against the spread coming off of a straight up win the last two seasons. Last week’s win was a big one against Michigan and it’s possible there could be a bit of a hangover lingering when the Cardinals and Irish kickoff on Saturday. The only thing that could make it better for Ball State is if the Irish had a big game next week they could look forward to. It’s Vanderbilt. Sorry Ball State.
That said, the Cardinals seem to be a different team in September the last two seasons. It could be that it’s early enough in the season that the team hasn’t become a MASH unit yet. James Gilbert is healthy and Malik Dunner is emerging as a potential star in the running attack. Ball State can probably control the clock just enough to stay within the spread.
Buffalo (+5) @ Temple
The Bulls were one of the most reliable teams in the country against the spread last year, going 8–2–2 against the number. They played close against pretty much every opponent last year, including Army, Northern Illinois (with a backup quarterback) and Minnesota. This week they travel to Philadelphia to take on Temple, who just took a stinging loss to FCS Villanova. There’s not much shame in losing to the Wildcats — they are obviously better than some FBS teams — but the Owls are 0–4 in their last four home games against the spread as a home favorite. We’re running with the Bulls this week.
Maryland (-16) @ Bowling Green
The Terps are coming off of their second straight win over Texas and have a pretty favorable schedule in front of them before opening up Big Ten play against Minnesota at the end of the month. While it’s definitely possible Maryland won’t take Bowling Green seriously it’s not likely. With The Falcons ineptitude on defense the Terps will find themselves comfortable all afternoon and cover the spread.
Utah @ Northern Illinois (+10.5)
Simply put, NIU didn’t play very well last week on offense. Marcus Childers had one of the worst games of his career and it was exacerbated by the fact his leading wide receiver and tight end both didn’t play. The Huskies ran the ball relatively well outside of the quarterback position but couldn’t find the end zone in a grind-it-out affair with Iowa. This week they’ll see another strong defense in Utah.
The Huskies will have to get better on the offensive line this week to compete with Utah, and I think they will. Last week I picked NIU based on their history in games with double-digit spreads and I’m not ready to walk away from that approach just yet.
Cincinnati (+1) @ Miami
I’m having a hard time understanding why Cincinnati isn’t the favorite here. The Bearcats are coming off of a road victory at UCLA while Miami trailed wire to wire at home against Marshall last week. The game figures to be close (the last four contests were one-score games), but with Miami’s dependability in losing these types of games it really comes down to whether I expect that to change. I don’t. The Bearcats have won 12 straight in this rivalry and I think 13 is in the cards this year.
Bonus Picks
Each week I like to pick three games outside of the MAC I think are worth your time. Here’s my picks this week:
Air Force @ FAU (-9.5)
FAU was just embarrassed by Oklahoma. The Sooners are going to do that to a lot of people this season. FAU should get back on track this week.
Arkansas (-14) @ Colorado State
Until the Rams show they can stop somebody, I’m going to fade them.
Tulsa @ Texas (-23)
Texas is coming off of a loss to Maryland and Tom Herman is getting all sorts of questions like, “why?” The Longhorns may be a program that can’t beat Maryland now, but I think Saturday they’ll show they aren’t at win-close-at-home-to-Tulsa levels just yet.

