Blueprint or Scramble?
Few have been able fully to shield themselves from the consequences of the financial crisis that began in 2008. Prices of things that make up a large proportion of poor people’s living costs are rising across the board. Around the world millions of jobs have been lost and it will be a long time before new jobs are created to replace them, if they ever are. As mega-corporations shed staff by the truckload, the natural engine of economic renewal should be small businesses, but they are denied credit by a self-paralyzed banking system. This deadly vicious circle means that demand for new production has collapsed.
In rich countries, social programmes designed to keep the economically disenfranchised from destitution are subject to ‘austerity measures’ (savage cuts) as governments try in vain to get a grip on a public debt crisis ignited by a deeper crisis in private finance. In poor countries, any glimmer of hope for the struggling majority has been firmly extinguished. Already 30,000 under fives are dying each day from preventable causes: hunger, inadequate post-natal care and diseases that could be eradicated by cheap inoculation. So what would civilizational collapse actually mean? It would mean more of the same, but much worse: greater suffering and hardship for people in all countries and the symptoms of absolute poverty becoming more discernible in rich countries. As the financial crisis continues to undermine the real economy, we will start to see shortages of things that populations in rich countries used to take for granted. Food and energy are the most likely consumables to have their supply restricted.
Many of those we elect to lead us, and the financiers who wield so much unaccountable power, and who keep thinking up new ways of making money for themselves without making any contribution to wealth creation, are already wise to what’s going on. They may be hoarding wealth to protect themselves, knowing that the economy will soon fail completely, but it’s difficult to see how even the super-rich can protect themselves if things get really bad.
This kind of collapse must be avoided at all costs. It would be a disaster for everyone. The human race would doubtless survive, but it would be generations, if not centuries, before a new civilization emerged. Surely it would be better to avoid the trauma? There’s still time to reconstitute our troubled civilization. Long-term renewal will require a new age of pioneers, but signs are that those committed to social transformation are ready and waiting to take up the challenge.
Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, formerly Secretary of State Colin Powell’s Chief of Staff, suggests we pay attention to the long-term strategic analysis of oil giant Royal Dutch Shell: “They have posited two scenarios,” he says. “One is called Blueprint and is obviously a planned corporate structure where world leaders get together and think about things like energy transformation, planetary warming and dwindling fossil fuels and so forth. The other is called Scramble and scramble is pretty much what it sounds like: it’s a mess. Interestingly enough in 2075, the ending year for these scenarios, we get to about the same place, it’s just the blueprint leaves a lot less blood on the floor.” The task of Shell’s analysts is to help the company prepare for all eventualities. While they obviously favour the Blueprint scenario, they are forced to concede that, right now, Scramble seems more likely.
Although things are serious, mainstream commentators avoid using phrases like ’the collapse of civilization’. They do, however, talk candidly about future events likely to bring about such a collapse. The financial markets, already irrational, could start to act more aggressively in defence of elite interests. Most of those who work in finance have no idea of the consequences for wider society of their aggregated actions. China may decide that it no longer wishes to fund the spending of the US Government or the consumption of its citizens. If the large asset-bubble-blowing Chinese economy falls into recession, what kind of reaction can we expect from millions of internet-savvy, disaffected young people? They’ve been promised so much, but most are yet to experience the benefits of their country’s economic miracle. They have no political rights; if the Chinese economy collapses there could well be revolution on the streets.
A crisis in the supply of one or more commodities, caused by genuine problems with production or by market manipulation by speculators, could easily tip the economy over the edge. So could an unexpected catastrophe linked to climate change. We may not be able to prevent such an event, but we’d be better able to cope with it if the global economy was in good shape.
The symptoms of social dislocation are likely to increase in rich nations. When English cities were hit by riots in the summer of 2011, politicians and commentators jumped through hoops to avoid the obvious conclusion that, whatever the criminal tendencies of many of those involved, such social breakdown is always a reaction to troubled economic times. The economic strain is likely to tell in poorer countries first, though. The scramble for scarce resources in places where there is already insufficient water will be exacerbated by existing political tensions and lead to more regional and civil wars. The recent overthrow of regimes in the Arab Spring provided people with a moment of hope, until the economic reality hit home. It hadn’t occurred to those who fought so courageously against oppression that the introduction of democracy comes with no guarantee of economic improvement, especially when the global economy is in such dire straits.
The evidence of history, and the unending catalogue of crises and conflicts that dominates the news, strongly suggest that without a major change of direction, collapse is inevitable. The extent of denial among politicians, economists and commentators means that change will not be led from within existing institutions of power. And, while that denial also reaches into the mindsets of many people, it is the determination of those ‘ordinary’ people organizing themselves and putting pressure on those who hold power that will offer the only hope. It’s not too late. We can buck the trend of history.
Excerpt from Four Horsemen: The Survival Manual.
Originally published at renegadeinc.com
