By 2030, AI Could Replace Three Hundred Million Jobs Globally
Can DEI proponents retool to lead humanity out of this mess?
I’ve been wanting to write about AI’s impact upon diversity for some time now. A chance conversation with an architect friend gave the grounding I was missing. It was a conversation about the future of work and life for those who are marginalized by capitalism. I had asked him, “Have you thought your about how AI will change your work?” In his early thirties, he’s built a successful architectural firm. Surprisingly, to me, he sees AI’s benefit to humanity outweighing the adaptive strategies he will employ to keep his business going. He was inspiring.
Here’s our thinking on the future of architecture and design
Consider you want to build a house or commercial building. From your desktop, laptop, handheld or smart TV you pull up one of the many AI platforms available and say, “I want to build a house.” The platform’s pleasant voice asks “where, when, how much you want to spend?” Or your known accounts, credit scores, and spending habits are scanned, it might tell you, “Looks like you have this amount to spend. Is that true?” A series of prompts then guide your thinking about your project (number of bedrooms, bathrooms, materials, etc.).
Concurrently code compliant plans are computed. Integrated AI systems, including permitting agencies, financial institutions, and suppliers, will interface with each other. Their own AI platforms manage supply chain networks and inventory management systems. Each nail, screw, tile pattern, light fixture, quantities and qualities of cement, piping, wood, etc. will all be detailed in your project completion schedule. If you want all that!
3-D holographic images let you walk through your home as you are designing it. The cost of each design decision or changes you make are calculated in real time. Review, redefine, tweak your project to your heart’s content. AI never gets tired, frustrated, or snippy. What once took months, now only takes minutes, maybe a few hours. Robots will fabricate and assemble most of the work off site. AI generated work plans will drive onsite assembly and quality control.
Now, let me ask you, what he and I did not discuss — how many jobs do you think have been eliminated?
Yang Warned Us!
During his presidential bid, Andrew Yang made World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab’s book titled Fourth Industrial Revolution (2016), a key campaign message. Yang would often say because of AI, up to a third of U.S. workers will lose their jobs by 2030. Goldman Sachs, in 2023, echoed his prediction, estimating around 300 million jobs could be affected by AI, or 18% of the work globally.
Though Yang tended to focus more on lower level skills and jobs, like truck drivers and cashiers, others also point to professional class jobs, as being vulnerable. The 2023 Hollywood Writers strike proved that worry very real. Much of their complaints were about the absence of safeguards preventing their loss of pay and work as a result of increasing AI use.
As entire economies shift — as they did when industrialization redirected humanity’s course towards dependency upon factories, cars and fossil fuels — the pockets of the already wealthy and the egos of the privileged class will swell. This was true when Pittsburgh’s (PA) steel industry collapsed in the early 80's. Though some workers took it upon themselves to learn new skills, starting at the bottom of new sectors. Others did whatever work they were hired to do. Many, however, simply lived the rest of their lives unemployed and unemployable.
Traditional jobs will evolve or be lost
- News stories, written and live streamed by AI will replace reporters
- 911 emergency call centers will be handled by AI platforms. The platform will determine the appropriate first responders
- Feeling blue, stressed, depressed? Need legal help? An AI therapist or attorney will always be available.
- Communities will be policed by drones and fixed cameras. With all of our images digitized, wrongdoers will be easy to find.
- Want to speak another language? A chip in your brain will transfer your thoughts to your hand held and. . . voila! You’re speaking their language.
“…a Capital One senior vice president, told the Washington Post AI will potentially “monitor transactions” to give detailed financial advice on saving and spending . . . The World Economic Forum predicts by 2027, (an estimated) 23% of jobs in China’s financial sector will be replaced by AI.” — Forbes
Adaptability: looking backwards to move forward
Consider how much COVID’s stay at home mandates altered our lifestyles, forced companies into bankruptcy and closed places of business. For some, irreversibly! Work from home became an expectation for many. Digital nomads were a novelty, not the way of life it is now for many. The ripple effects changed the way many worked. Some to the detriment of their companies, and their own jobs. Others were able to adapt and thrive.
What’s DEI Got To Do With It?
This excerpt from then presidential candidate Barrack Obama’s speech in Berlin, July 24, 2008 gives some clues to the answer.
“Tonight, I speak to you…as a citizen - a proud citizen of the United States, and a fellow citizen of the world. I know that I don’t look like the Americans who’ve previously spoken in this great city. The journey that led me here is improbable. My mother was born in the heartland of America, but my father grew up herding goats in Kenya. His father, my grandfather, was a cook, a domestic servant to the British.”
On this side of the pond, the backlash foretold what was to follow. But I digress. His speech, “The Burdens of Global Citizenship Continue to Bind Us Together” is one I commend to all.
In his speech, you will find embedded the worry of many globalists: that we are moving towards a global caste system with a significant underclass entrenched in poverty and disenfranchisement.
Yang would often say because of AI, up to a third of U.S. workers will lose their jobs by 2030
Therein lies the challenge to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion proponents in the U.S. and globally. Beginning with sectors they traditionally target: communications and media networks, service sector industries, and production/supply chain networks, people marginalized, like President Obama’s grandparents — the foundation of his improbable path to the presidency — will be those most likely to experience the most immediate and dire turbulence.
Champions Are Needed!
The question is, can DEI proponents, who are already being marginalized, retool? Can they see themselves as champions who will guide humanity — regardless of peoples’ race, class, sexual orientation, gender, etc. — in this Fourth Industrial Revolution?
For, if political leaders are as unable as they seem to establish meaningful guardrails, AI will push those struggling to live their best lives (a right that should belong to all) to be thrown so far under the bus that roadkill will be more recognizable.
Al fin: another reason for campus unrest!
Think this is the future? Think we got time? Think again! It’s here now! And the most diverse generation in U.S. history, Generation Z, see it. As do many Millennials and Gen Xers. And for lots of them, it’s scary out here!
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