Political Data and Analytics: India and the United States

One of the questions I am asked most frequently is: What are some of the similarities and differences between political data and analytics in India and the United States?

Coalition politics: India and the United States are the two largest democracies in the world. Both are diverse, pluralist societies with single-member districts and sizable ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities. This requires candidates to form diverse coalitions of voters in order to win election. But while the US has only two major parties, India has dozens of parties that are able to win seats in state and national elections. As a result, parties in India frequently form pre-poll alliances that require seat-sharing agreements. In India, we use data and analytics to determine which party in an alliance should contest from each seat.

Candidate selection: In the US, we use primary elections to determine which candidate will represent each party at the polls. In India, this decision is made by party leaders. In both countries, we use polling to identify which candidate has the highest probability of being elected. This information is used to inform decision-makers in both countries: primary voters in the US and party leaders in India.

Campaign finance: Both India and the US have deeply flawed campaign finance systems. In the US, wealthy individuals and corporations can spend virtually unlimited sums to support or oppose individual candidates or policies. In India, wealthy individuals and corporations also find ways to capture the support of politicians. Voters in both countries would benefit from an overhaul of the way political campaigns are financed.

Voter contact: Many of the techniques used for voter contact are used in both India and the US. Candidates, party workers and volunteers have conversations with voters in the community either one-on-one or in groups. They do this at events, while canvassing door-to-door, via telephone, text and social media. WhatsApp is very popular in India while both countries use Facebook and Twitter for organizing and communications. This type of person-to-person interaction is among the most effective ways to persuade a voter to support a candidate or turn out to vote.

Campaign period: In the US, the campaign period is frequently two years for presidential campaigns and can be even longer. In India, the official campaign period is just a few weeks. But in India, as in the US, there is a lot of campaign work that must be done months prior to the election if the party or candidate is to succeed. A party or candidate cannot create or rehabilitate an image in just a few weeks of campaigning — this process must begin months or even years before the election. In both countries, successful parties and candidates undertake what is called a ‘permanent campaign’ — conducting polling, message testing, communications and voter contact constantly in order to be aware of voter concerns, respond to those concerns and disseminate the candidate’s or party’s message.

Voter lists: In both countries, we obtain a list of registered voters for each election that includes each voter’s name, address, age and gender. In the US, this list also includes each voter’s past vote history — which elections they voted in, and, in many states, their preferred political party. In India, it can be very challenging to identify a voter based on the name and address on the voter roll. However, we are still able to digitize and translate these lists, and use them effectively for voter contact, individual-level predictive modeling and analytics.

Identifying marginal seats: In both countries, we use polling, data and analytics to identify the seats that are most competitive and most likely to determine party control in a close election. This process is more complex in India because of the number of political parties, but the tools used to identify marginal seats are similar.

While the differences between political data and analytics in India and the US are important, it is remarkable how well many of the techniques, tools and lessons translate from one country to the other. Each country has its own unique features, but many of the basic functions of a political campaign — registering voters, persuading them to support your candidate, addressing voter concerns, communicating your message, turning voters out on election day — are the same.

– Andrew Claster (@ahclaster)

Originally published at www.fourthlion.in on March 2, 2016.