Forecasting sales in a pandemic
If you are in the medical device business or any business for that matter this is a volatile time to be forecasting sales. Here are my quick thoughts on the factors to consider in your forecasting model:
· When will COVID-19 peak and subside?
· When will patient confidence be back to normal levels?
· When will staffing levels in hospitals be at full strength?
· When will sales reps be allowed back into the hospital?
· When will a shortage of personal protection equipment (PPE) preventing elective surgeries end?
· When will a vaccine available? Will it be in the next 18 months?
· When will there be widespread testing?
· When will spending levels, especially in countries with socialized medicine, be back to normal? Given most governments have spent a lot on bailouts?
· In countries like the United States where employment-based insurance is prevalent will the high levels of unemployment lead to postponement of necessary medical care? In the 2008 recession, many people postponed necessary medical care. What would be the impact of that on procedure volumes? Can we again expect a 10–20% contraction in procedure volumes?
· In the 2008 recession, it took 3 years for the economy to bounce back. How will this impact healthcare spending overall?
· Every pandemic model is expecting an 18-month timeline (3-phases) for a full recovery. How should we account for that in our forecasting models?
Based on the above factors I came up with a 4-scenario model:
1. Scenario one would have us back at 75–80% of Pre-COVID levels in six months which would be the end of 2020.
2. Scenario two would have us back at 75–80% of Pre-COVID in 12 months which would be Q2 of 2021.
3. Scenario three would have us back at 75–80% in 18 months which would be the end of 2021.
4. Scenario four would have us in a sustained depression for the next three years because there is no vaccine, no widespread testing, prolonged self-quarantine, and a sustained recession. In this case, we may be looking at 2023 or even 2024 for a full recovery.
The factors above should be at least considered as key inputs to adjust forecast which thus far has just narrowly focused on COVID-19 trends. The effects of COVID-19 will last beyond the pandemic with a significant impact on how the economy and consumption of critical services like healthcare. For example, if every one of those factors that I listed above has a 5% chance of negatively impacting in 2nd half of 2020, we have a cumulative probability of getting back to normal at 60%. By taking into account these extraneous factors and closely monitoring them along with macroeconomic factors like government spending we could build a forecast that gives us a better handle on how the recovery is shaping up.
