FoSat Week Five MAC Football Recap: Northern Illinois’ Defense Holds the Key to Your Fate.

EMU is positively cursed, and Miami just can’t run the ball. Western Michigan’s offense is emerging as a real dangerous threat in the MAC West, but Northern Illinois’ defense still holds the key to everyone’s fate.

What Happened?

• Michigan State 31 Central Michigan 20: The Chippewas created some turnovers and played tough on defense but nevertheless found themselves trailing 31–3 headed into the fourth quarter in East Lansing. Central found some success in the fourth and even recovered an onside kick, scoring 17 unanswered points and pushing the score to a more respectable level.
• Army 42 Buffalo 13: The Bulls got pummeled by Army at home. Army has scored 40 points in 26 games since 2000, and they are 21–5 in those games. Army won’t give you a lot of possessions, so what you do with them is important. The Bulls found out going 2–11 on third down is a good way to squander those possessions.
• Georgia Tech 63 Bowling Green 17: The Falcons were handled by Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Saturday. It was expected considering Georgia Tech’s entire identity is running the football and running it well whereas Bowling Green is known for allowing a ton of rushing yards. The result when an unstoppable force meets an indifferent object is a 63–17 Georgia Tech victory.
• Ohio 58 UMass 42: It’s a surprise to nobody that Ohio and UMass turned into a shootout considering last year’s contest. The Bobcats out lasted the Minutemen behind a strong day from Nathan Rourke who had 270 yards passing and 189 yards rushing. The big news from this game is the post game comments made by UMass head coach Mark Whipple. Whipple is suspended without pay, leaving former WMU defensive coordinator Ed Pinkham in charge of the team in the interim.

• Ball State 52 Kent State 24: Kent State’s wave of optimism has finally ended and it looks like the Flashes still have another year before Sean Lewis’ vision can be achieved. That’s to be expected, but the lopsided nature of this week’s loss to Ball State was surprising considering the Cardinals struggled against and lost to Western Kentucky at home a week ago. From Ball State’s perspective, it’s clear the Cardinals are not in the same tier as Kent State, and that’s a great thing in Mike Neu’s third year in Muncie. Riley Neal had a huge day for Ball State completing 30 of 50 passes for 402 yards and four touchdowns. He even added a rushing touchdown to boot.
• Western Michigan 40 Miami 39: Another frustrating loss for Miami. The RedHawks played their best game of the season on offense and it wasn’t enough to top the Broncos in Oxford. Western Michigan looks like an offense that can score a ton of points on anybody (except Michigan and maybe NIU) and that could make the race in the MAC West very interesting. Jayden Reed is going to be a star at Western Michigan, racking up as many receiving touchdowns in his first five games as Corey Davis did in his entire first year in Kalamazoo.

• Northern Illinois 26 Eastern Michigan 23 (3OT): Some missed field goals doomed Eastern Michigan in the fourth quarter and overtime, and the Huskies walked out with a victory as they are known to do. A lot happened in this game, and NIU controlled most of it. The two Huskie turnovers gave EMU a shot and the Eagles couldn’t convert. It’s another sad chapter on the EMU side of this annual MAC West tilt.

NIU’s Defense Holds the Key

What NIU does year in and year out is sets the rules of engagement in the MAC West and wagers that your team can’t do anything about it. To win the MAC West you have to be good enough to break the damn rules and get away with it, like Toledo last year and Western Michigan the year before. This year’s challenge to the rest of the conference is pretty clear: Go ahead, try and beat this defense. We know you can’t.

The Huskies have wagered correctly so far, stifling Central and Eastern Michigan on their way to a 2–0 start in the MAC. However the Huskies haven’t seen the best offense they’ll see all season yet. Not even close. The average S&P+ offensive ranking for NIU’s opponents to-date is 104.6 (out of 130 teams). Eastern Michigan clocks in at 85 this week as the best offense NIU’s seen all year. Toledo (19), Ohio (15) and Western Michigan (46) are waiting for their shot, and it promises to be a much better shot than what Eastern Michigan provided on Saturday.

This makes the MAC West equation painfully simple in 2018. Beat NIU’s defense (and hope Ohio does too, for good measure), win the crown. But just because the equation is simple doesn’t mean execution is. Sutton Smith and company are tasked with propping up a sluggish offense right now, and they’ll be standing there waiting for everyone’s best shot.

Quick Thoughts on Week Five

• Now that Buffalo’s unbeaten season is toast, the Bulls can re-focus on the MAC East slate in front of them. Right now, there isn’t much there outside of Ohio (and Akron, I guess) that complicates things much for them. It’s probably just gut feeling, but I don’t think you’re going to see the version of Buffalo that showed up Saturday ever again.
• The MAC West is going to be loaded with shootouts this year, and that could be a good thing for the MAC’s midweek slate of games. Outside of NIU, nobody in that division seems interested or capable of playing stout defense, so in games that don’t feature the Huskies be on the lookout for some gaudy numbers.
• Ball State might not be a lost cause after all. If the Cardinals played in the MAC East, there’d be some real hope they could get something done and maybe threaten to represent the division at Ford Field. Unfortunately they play in a division with three of the last four MAC champions. Any progress shown against the bigger players in the division will be a success, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals stole a game from one of those three schools (WMU, if we’re being honest).
• Bowling Green is a train wreck. There are injury issues for the Falcons right now, but what’s happening to Mike Jinks’ program right now is unfathomable considering the success the Falcons saw for the first part of this decade. Somethings got to give this next stretch of the season or Bowling Green will be in the market for a new direction.

A Look Ahead at Week Six

• Eastern Michigan’s last stand is going to come on the road in Kalamazoo. The Eagles are going to have to spoil the Broncos’ homecoming celebration if they’re going to stay alive in the MAC West.
• Miami’s situation is a bit better though. The RedHawks were nearly 2–0 in the MAC but now sit at 1–1 looking ahead to a very winnable Akron game. If Miami wants to have a say out East they’ll need to bounce back.
• Keep an eye on Mitchell Guadagni’s health this week as the Rockets may have to start Eli Peters in the annual rivalry game with Bowling Green. It shouldn’t matter either way who plays under center for the Rockets, but Bowling Green can find some hope in the possibility they’ll need to stop a backup quarterback instead.
• Buffalo can’t afford to play poorly up in Mount Pleasant this week. Central Michigan is not a pushover on defense and they will make Buffalo pay for not finishing drives. With Toledo looming in a few weeks, the Bulls cannot afford to slip up in this crossover game.