Mid-American Gambler Week One College Football Picks Against the Spread: The Legend of Non Conference Ball State
The MAC is widely expected to have a uniquely terrible year, which means week one should have some inflated spreads worth exploiting.
Welcome back to the Mid-American Gambler. A special welcome back to those who joined me for week zero that saw winning teams combine for 10 turnovers and losing teams combine for just two. Life just isn’t fair sometimes.
I’ll be doing things differently with the Gambler this year, but first let’s start with what’s the same. I pick every MAC football game against the spread and a handful of bonus picks outside the conference (usually three games). I track my performance as the year goes on to show whether or not my opinions are worth listening to.
As for what’s different, I will pick each game straight up, tracking that performance as well. I’ll also be giving a 20+ point underdog of the week that’s most likely to win the football game, just for fun.
If you like your MAC football with a side of podcast, check us out at Tuesday Night Lights, a MAC football podcast from MAC Prospectus and Free on Saturday:
Join me on Twitter @NIFFOCNITSUJ (It’s just my name backwards) or @fosatblog and let me know what your favorite MAC upset pick is this week.
Mid-American Gambler Performance To-Date
Previous Week Against the Spread: 1–1
Overall Record Against the Spread: 1–1
Previous Week Straight Up: 1–1
Overall Record Straight Up: 1–1
What Happened Last Week?
Florida was minus three in the turnover margin against Miami and still managed to win by four. Great news for Gators fans (just clean a few things up and this could be a really good team), but not great for covering a 7.5 point spread.
Hawaii’s win over Arizona proved that this was, well, a rather unique week of college football. The Warriors turned the ball over six times, ending up minus five in the turnover margin, and still won the game. In fact, it spent the entire game in the lead or tied with the double-digit road favorite Arizona. Imagine the beat down the Wildcats were in for had Hawaii just been a tiny bit more careful with the football?
Week One MAC Football Picks Against the Spread
Kent State vs. Arizona State
8/29/19; 10:00 PM ET
Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
Line: Arizona State -25
It’s tough to tell what Sean Lewis’ tenure is going to bring in just his second year, but the general consensus is Kent State is going places under the youngest head coach in college football. Last year the Flashes were 3–1 against the spread out of conference, which included a close loss at Illinois and a closer-than-expected loss at Ole Miss. It also included a 63–10 drubbing at the hands of Penn State, so it’s a bit of a mixed bag.
Arizona State has 15 returning starters, including eight on offense. They have to replace NFL first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry, but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem against a Kent State defense that figures to be another year away from significant improvement.
My Pick: Arizona State -25
Toledo vs. Kentucky
8/31/19; 12:00 PM ET
Kroger Field
Lexington, KY
Line: Kentucky -12
Toledo is just 3–4 against the spread as a road underdog under Jason Candle, and just 1–2 last year. The Rockets’ last six trips to high-quality opponents out of conference (which I’m defining as a power five team or top-tier group of five team) have not gone all that great. A 2015 win over Arkansas as a 21-point underdog and a two-point loss to BYU in 2016 as a three-point underdog are the lone bright spots, with Toledo losing big to Miami (FL; 2017), Fresno State (2018) and Cincinnati (2014).
However, Kentucky’s failed to cover in its last two games against the MAC, nearly dropping a game to Eastern Michigan at home in 2017. In fact, the Wildcats have failed to cover in their last six games against the group of five, including a straight up loss in the home opener against Southern Miss in 2016.
My Pick: Toledo +12, Kentucky straight up
Akron vs. Illinois
8/31/19; 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
Champaign, IL
Line: Illinois -18
Where have we seen this before? A MAC school with a first-year head coach, some extremely low expectations and a dynamic quarterback heads to Champaign as a double-digit underdog to open the season. The Illini were in this exact position with Kent State a year ago and now it’s up to Akron to put another scare into Illinois. The Zips have seven returning starters on offense, led by quarterback Kato Nelson who, like Woody Barrett a year ago, could make life extremely difficult for Illinois.
Trips to power five competition haven’t gone well for Akron against the spread on the whole recently, covering just three times in their last nine trips, but two of those covers included straight up wins over Pittsburgh in 2014 and Northwestern in 2018. It’s tough to tell, with Tom Arth in his first season, which Akron we’re going to see to open the season.
My Pick: Illinois -18
Indiana vs. Ball State
8/31/19; 12:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, IN
Line: Indiana -17
The Ball State Cardinals have more wins out of conference than in conference under current head coach Mike Neu. In Neu’s first year the Cardinals started 3–1, only to win just one conference game between that point and early in the 2018 season. It’s really the strangest thing.
The Cardinals make a pretty good case for taking the points in non conference play. Outside of the 28-point loss to Indiana a season ago, Ball State has an eight-point loss to Notre Dame, a three-point loss to Illinois and a 10-point loss to Indiana in Mike Neu’s tenure they can point to as evidence of their stinginess outside of the MAC.
My Pick: Ball State +17, Indiana straight up
Eastern Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina
8/31/19; 3:30 PM ET
Brooks Stadium
Conway, SC
Line: Eastern Michigan -6
That EMU is a road favorite against anybody is a pretty big testament to the job Chris Creighton has done in Ypsilanti. Against FBS competition, the Eagles have been favored 12 times since Creighton took over in 2014 and they are an even 6–6 against the spread in those games. In non conference games, the Eagles have been favored just three times, going 2–1 against the number in those games — both against Charlotte.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan -6
Miami vs Iowa
8/31/19; 7:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
Iowa City, IA
Line: Iowa -21.5
Miami made the trip to Kinnick in 2016 and it went quite poorly on the scoreboard but the RedHawks were able to cover despite the 24 point loss. Miami is 2–3 against the spread in its last five games against power five competition, but it has seen a lot of large spreads by virtue of playing the likes of Iowa, Notre Dame, Michigan and Wisconsin since 2014. Iowa is always a liability to lose at home out of conference to someone it shouldn’t, but Miami is just too conservative to put a scare into the Hawkeyes. Chuck Martin will give Iowa plenty of breathing room and look ahead to Tennessee Tech.
My Pick: Miami +21.5, Iowa straight up
Bonus Picks
Ole Miss vs Memphis
8/31/19; 12:00 PM ET
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, TN
Line: Memphis -5.5
There is no reason to pick this game other than the fact that Memphis laying the hammer to Ole Miss again would be peak entertainment value.
My Pick: Memphis -5.5
Utah vs BYU
8/29/19; 10:15 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Provo, UT
Line: Utah -6.5
I am firmly on both the Utah and BYU hype trains this year, but am more firmly on the Utah hype train. The defense figures to be extremely good, and I like the Utes to open the season strong.
My Pick: Utah -6.5
Northwestern vs Stanford
8/31/19; 4:00 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
Stanford, CA
Line: Stanford -6.5
I really like the fact that Northwestern isn’t getting a full touchdown here, and Stanford figures to be a bit better than the Wildcats this year, even though Pat Fitzgerald and company won the Big Ten West in 2018.
My Pick: Stanford -6.5
20-Point Underdog Most Likely to Win the Football Game
Georgia Southern. It’s always Georgia Southern. The Eagles play at LSU this weekend and are 27.5 point underdogs, but the Eagles are a team exactly zero teams in the entire world should ever want to play out of conference.
