Mid-American Gambler: Week Three College Football Picks Against The Spread
It’s been a dreadful non conference season for the MAC so far straight up, making it difficult to see any upsets on the horizon that will make us all feel very clever for paying attention
This is the Mid-American Gambler, a weekly installment picking every MAC football game (and a handful of others) against the spread. Performance will be tracked and updated each week, but previous articles can be found by clicking here. Let us know what you think of these picks by following us on Twitter @fosatblog or by following Justin directly @NIFFOCNITSUJ
If you like your MAC football with a side of podcast, check us out at Tuesday Night Lights, a MAC football podcast from MAC Prospectus and Free on Saturday:
Mid-American Gambler Performance To-Date
Previous Week Against the Spread: 9–2
Overall Record Against the Spread: 17–5
Previous Week Straight Up: 11–0
Overall Record Straight Up: 20–1
What Happened Last Week?
Very rarely should one ever listen to me earnestly. HOWEVER, last week was one of those once-in-a-lifetime instances where I gave the people some very good advice.
The first piece of advice was Colorado. I told you not to trust Nebraska in that environment and, thanks to a freaking beautiful and gutsy flea-flicker call by the Buffaloes, I ended up being right.
The second thing I tried to warn everyone about was Army. They were the 20-point underdog I thought had the best chance to win last week and by God, it nearly happened.
The only letdowns last week? My beloved Directional Michigan rivals. How dare you.
Week Three MAC Football Picks Against the Spread
Eastern Michigan vs. Illinois
9/14/19; 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
Champaign, IL
Line: Illinois -7.5
Headed into last week Eastern Michigan was 9–1 against the spread since 2017 as a road underdog. Now the Eagles are 9–2 after failing to cover the spread at Kentucky last week. There’s a lot of buzz about the Illi — yeah I can’t finish that. Illinois is 2–0, but let’s not get carried away.
My Pick: Eastern Michigan +7.5, Eastern Michigan straight up.
Miami vs. Cincinnati
9/14/19; 12:00 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
Line: Cincinnati -17.5
Miami is 2–8 against the spread in non conference games since 2017, but you must throw out the record books when Miami and Cincinnati meet for the Victory Bell!
Speaking of said record book, there are 13 straight pages under the “game results” section that all show Cincinnati victories from 2005–2018. That can’t be right, can it?
My Pick: Cincinnati -17.5
Florida Atlantic vs. Ball State
9/14/19; 2:00 PM ET
Scheumann Stadium
Muncie, IN
Line: Florida Atlantic -2.5
If you’re going to give non conference Ball State points at home I’m going to take them. End of story.
My Pick: Ball State +2.5
Akron vs. Central Michigan
9/14/19; 3:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Mount Pleasant, MI
Line: Central Michigan -1
Before Central announced that both Quinten Dormady and Jonathan Ward would not be playing in this game or any others in the near future, my read on this game was to simply take the home team. Now that CMU is even more shorthanded than before, the Zips seem like the right play.
My Pick: Akron +1, Akron straight up.
Louisiana Tech vs. Bowling Green
9/14/19; 5:00 PM ET
Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
Line: Louisiana Tech -11.5
Bowling Green nearly had us fooled with that big win over Morgan State in week one, but perhaps the fact I just referred to that as a big win answers the question, “can we trust Bowling Green?”
My Pick: Louisiana Tech -11.5
Buffalo vs. Liberty
9/14/19; 6:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium
Lynchburg, VA
Line: Buffalo -6
The scoreboard in Happy Valley showed a thoroughly decisive Penn State victory last week, but Buffalo showed clearly in the first two quarters that it has a phenomenal rushing attack and isn’t afraid to use it. I’m excited to see what the Bulls unleash on Liberty this weekend.
My Pick: Buffalo -6
Ohio vs. Marshall
9/14/19; 6:30 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Huntington, WV
Line: Marshall -5.5
When the season started I penciled this in as a clear Ohio victory, though hard fought. After seeing Marshall’s defense last week against Boise State and watching Ohio’s offense crumble at Pittsburgh, it seems those tables have turned.
My Pick: Marshall -5.5
Kent State vs. Auburn
9/14/19; 7:00 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn, AL
Line: Auburn -35.5
It’s incredibly weird to say right now considering what many people thought Kent State would be at this point of the season but, honestly, I don’t know if Kent State can score enough to cover a spread like this at Auburn. Of course, there’s the possibility the Tigers laze through this one and let Kent State try out some new things in the fourth quarter with a 28-point lead.
My Pick: Auburn -35.5
Georgia State vs. Western Michigan
9/14/19; 7:00 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
Kalamazoo, MI
Line: Western Michigan -8.5
This line actually opened much higher and then almost immediately fell to its current form after people realized Western Michigan can’t play defense. The trouble is, Georgia State doesn’t play much defense either. This will be a shootout, but the Broncos will be able to move the ball at will.
My Pick: Western Michigan -8.5
Northern Illinois vs. Nebraska
9/14/19; 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
Lincoln, NE
Line: Nebraska -14
Picking against NIU would be picking against history. The Huskies are great in these situations and always play up to their competition. Working against them here are a couple of factors. First, Nebraska is coming off of a loss against a rival in a game it practically controlled the entire time. Second, Nebraska went through this two years ago against NIU — nobody in Lincoln is going to take the Huskies lightly. The fans will probably even tailgate a little harder for this one than most games against a MAC opponent.
That said:
My Pick: Northern Illinois +14, Nebraska straight up.
Bonus Picks
USC vs BYU
9/14/19; 3:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Provo, UT
Line: USC -4
This week I’m picking against both teams that most recently beat Tennessee. USC being pretty damn good is a surprise to say the least, considering the extremely weird offseason. Clay Helton was a dead man walking and now, well, he’s just maybe a dead man walking.
My Pick: USC -4
Clemson vs Syracuse
9/14/19; 7:30 PM ET
Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY
Line: Clemson -28
Syracuse has been an absolute thorn in Clemson’s side the last couple of seasons. It’s looking more and more like the Orange won’t be able to survive replacing all of that offensive firepower from a season ago, and if that holds true the Tigers should be able to remove that thorn. Forcefully.
My Pick: Clemson -28
Arizona State vs Michigan State
9/14/19; 4:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
Line: Michigan State -15
In Michigan State’s last 20 games against power conference teams, only five were decided by more than 14 points. Three were losses, to Notre Dame in 2018 and a pair of 45-point and 20-point losses to Ohio State in 2017 and 2018. The two wins were over Maryland in 2018 and Rutgers in 2017. 15 points is just too much for a team that hardly ever beats up on power conference teams.
My Pick: Arizona State +15, Michigan State straight up
20-Point Underdog Most Likely to Win the Football Game
Hawaii+21.5 vs Washington
Washington’s loss to Cal last week makes this less of a sneaky upset watch than maybe it could have been, but Hawaii is 2–0 against the PAC-12 (Oregon State technically counts) and playing with a ton of confidence. Being away from home for the first time makes this a tougher sell, but maybe it’s a special year for the Warriors.
