Mid American Gambler Thinks Ohio Will Pummel You if You Can’t Keep Up
Two of the MAC’s top offenses are in action on Thursday night and should bring the fireworks for the opening week of MACtion.
Welcome to the Mid-American Gambler, a weekly installment where Justin makes his picks against the spread on every MAC football game (and a few others too). You can follow him on Twitter @NIFFOCNITSUJ or email him at fosatblog@gmail.com.
Last Week: 5–1 in the MAC, 1–2 Bonus Picks
Overall Record: 38–42–1
I had a good laugh as I sat down to write this week’s gambler at my own expense. Last week’s photo headline read “This is Free Money, Folks,” and while I went 6–3 last week the game I wrote that for was in the loss column. The funny part is not just that I took the L, but how spectacularly I took it. I declared a line free money for a team that lost by 28 points to Missouri. Cheers, Memphis, we all knew you’d mess everything up, but not like that.
Everyone else was on their best behavior. Utah made USC look bad as I expected and Buffalo, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan demonstrated that they belong in the top tiers of the MAC. This week we’ve only got three conference games, two of which are being played on short rest on Thursday and the last of which is Central Michigan-Akron. Things could get very interesting or very boring. Hopefully we land on the right side of things after week nine.
Ball State @ Ohio -11
I know the thing this year has been to assume the worst with Ohio’s defense, but I think at this point in the year the Bobcats’ ability to score a heap of points in a hurry trumps all. Ohio stumbled out of the gate and we all forgot that they were the preseason favorite to win the damn thing for a reason.
Toledo +6.5 @ Western Michigan
This is only WMU’s fourth home game so far this season and it’s already week nine. It’s worth pointing out that the Broncos are 0–2 against the spread in FBS games at home against Syracuse and Eastern Michigan. Waldo Stadium will be about as rocking as you’d expect a stadium to be on a cold Thursday night in Michigan for a MAC game, which is to say home field advantage probably won’t play a role here. I like the Broncos straight up, but close.
Central Michigan @ Akron -4.5
CMU has covered the spread four times this season, and three of those were on the road. Akron is only on its third home game of the season and is coming off of a big rivalry win over Kent State, even if the performance was generally underwhelming. There’s a lot pointing to Central in this game as the play, but the Chips just simply aren’t very good at all and were just handled at home by their primary rival. The Zips still have a lot to play for in the MAC East since they aren’t technically eliminated just yet, and I think the defending east division champs will take care of business against CMU by a touchdown or more.
Army @ Eastern Michigan -1
SOMEONE in the MAC has to beat Army this year. EMU is better equipped to win this game than, say, Miami was a week ago because it can throw the ball very well. The EMU offense and the game being at home have me liking the Eagles to continue their winning ways. Also, the Eagles are now 6–2 against the spread on the year.
Northern Illinois @ BYU -7
How motivated will NIU be to play this game? The Huskies have to travel to Akron in five days to play another football game, a game which, unlike this one, counts for something in terms of what the Huskies can accomplish this season. This game figures to be tight for most of the day, but I think BYU adds a late touchdown and wins something like 21–10.
Bonus Picks
Each week I like to pick three games outside of the MAC I think are worth your time. Here’s my picks this week:
Purdue +1.5 @ Michigan State
I like to be careful with teams coming off of huge, emotional wins like the Boilermakers had last week, but Purdue isn’t favored in this game. Michigan State is 0–3 against the spread at home this season.
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas (+1.5)
The Razorbacks are 3–0 in their last three home games against the spread, which includes a game against Alabama. It was just one point on a 35 point spread, but still, take the Razorbacks.
Georgia @ Florida (+7)
Okay fine I’ll pick the Cocktail Party. We’re going to sweat this one a bit, but the Gators are 6–1 against the spread on the season and won’t fail me now.
