Mid American Gambler Likes Ball State and Northern Illinois to Cover in Week Three

I know I keep telling you to pick NIU, but it’s going to work out this time. I promise.

Welcome to the Mid-American Gambler, a weekly installment where Justin makes his picks against the spread on every MAC football game (and a few others too). You can follow him on Twitter @NIFFOCNITSUJ or email him at fosatblog@gmail.com.

Last week I went 6–2 against the spread on MAC games, missing on Northern Illinois (barely) and Central Michigan (by a lot). That’s a nice turnaround from last week. What isn’t nice is the record in bonus picks, which was 0–3 against the spread and not particularly close. That’s how it happens sometimes, but either way we’re positive for the week and at 9–11 against the spread for the season. Here’s how we’ll make that better this week:

Kent State @ Penn State (-35)

Penn State was a 24.5 point favorite over Appalachian State in week one and needed overtime to win. It came out the next week as a 7.5 point favorite against Pitt and won by 45. Kent State is 2–0 against the spread and has wildly overachieved in both games. As an 18 point dog to Illinois the Flashes nearly won on the road, and the next week as just a nine point favorite over FCS Howard the Flashes won by 40. What’s going on with these teams?

I’m going with Penn State in this one, but by no means is it an easy decision. I think Penn State is out of letdowns for the year and Kent State struggled to score in the second half against Illinois. The Nittany Lions are not Illinois, and head coach James Franklin doesn’t seem shy about running up scores.

Miami (-10.5) @ Toledo

The best teams in the MAC should be competitive and even beat middle of the road and bad teams in the Power Five conferences. Miami is not one of those teams. The Glass Bowl is going to be a hostile environment by MAC standards, but nothing Miami hasn’t seen before. Expect some early fireworks from Toledo, but much like last year, Miami will pull away late.

Ball State (+14.5) @ Indiana

Is it weird that I half expect Ball State to win this game? Perhaps I’m drinking a bit too much Kool-Aid right now but the Cardinals looked great on defense last week against Notre Dame and should have an easier go of it on offense against the Hoosiers. Indiana is 0–2 against the spread and hasn’t really been lighting the world on fire. They sport two wins over FIU and Virginia by 10 and four points, respectively.

Ohio (+3.5) @ Virginia

This line actually opened at Virginia by 6.5 in some places. I’m less confident about Ohio at 3.5, but still like the Bobcats to win. The best thing in Ohio’s favor right now is that both teams are playing a road game. Virginia was stripped of its home field advantage by Hurricane Florence as the game is being played at Vanderbilt in Nashville. Neutral field or not, however, if Nathan Rourke can’t get it going this pick will look incredibly stupid next week.

Miami @ Minnesota (-13)

P.J. Fleck’s Gophers are going to be without star running back Rodney Smith on Saturday. That could make things a bit tougher on the Minnesota offense against a really good Miami defense. At 13 points, there’s definitely an opportunity for Miami to make things interesting, but since there’s no indications Chuck Martin’s team plans on playing offense any time soon I’m leaning towards the Gophers to cover.

Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois (-14)

I promise. This time it’s real. Northern Illinois is going to cover. They would have covered last week against Utah if it wasn’t for those meddling kids and their pick sixes. The Huskie defense has been damn good and was nearly suffocating last week against the Utes. Central Michigan struggled to move the ball at all against Kansas. I don’t think Central is going to stop struggling on offense all of a sudden. Something like 28–10 seems pretty likely and will get the job done here for NIU.

Eastern Michigan (+4) @ Buffalo

These are two of the more reliable teams to bet on in the MAC as underdogs. The Eagles have that distinction this week so once again I will give a nod to recent history and pick Chris Creighton’s squad. Under Creighton the last two seasons the Eagles are 11–1 against the spread as a road underdog. Tyler Wiegers has been phenomenal at quarterback and can really keep control of a game. I like the Eagles to win outright.

Akron (+21) @ Northwestern

I haven’t been that impressed with Northwestern so far this season. They dropped a home game to Duke last week 21–7 (they were 2.5 point favorites) and sport a close win over a Purdue team that doesn’t seem so great anymore. We haven’t seen much from the Zips yet this year given their cancelled game against Nebraska in week one, but they return a solid defense that carried them to a MAC East title last year and should be able to keep the score low.

Bonus Picks

Each week I like to pick three games outside of the MAC I think are worth your time. Here’s my picks this week:

TCU @ Ohio State (-13)

It’s technically a home game for TCU at Jerry World, but Ohio State is playing out of its mind right now. I assume the Buckeyes are two touchdowns better than everyone other than

Boise State (+3.5) @ Oklahoma State

The Broncos have been waiting for a moment to seize the G5’s top spot back. They’ve got a big chance in Stillwater this week. I think they get it done.

Alabama (-21.5) @ Ole Miss

It looks like Ole Miss hasn’t had any trouble playing offense so far this year. They hung 47 on Texas Tech and 76 on Southern Illinois. The major problem with that you might notice is neither of those teams is Alabama. I know weird things happen when the Crimson Tide play Ole Miss, but this Alabama team is on another level this year.