FoSat Game of the Week — NIU vs Buffalo
We’re staying in New York this week, as Buffalo faces off against the best defense in the MAC in NIU
Today we’re going to learn about MAC geography. The Mid-American Conference features 12 schools across 5 states. Three of those states house only a single school, with Muncie, IN sitting somewhat in the armpit of Michigan and Ohio.
The two outliers are New York and Illinois, the Eastern and Western boundaries of the conference, respectively. On Saturday, the two schools in those states will meet in Buffalo, NY. To get there, the NIU football team will (presumably) fly. But should they drive…
9+ hours, if you don’t stop. Look at the construction, remember that includes toll roads in three separate states, and blah. And that alternative route going across a lake, Michigan, and Canada? Pretty much 12 hours plus two border crossings, but at least you get to ride a ferry!
Anyways, the actual game played should be stellar as the Buffalo Bulls (3–3, 1–1) and the NIU Huskies (3–2, 1–0) each look to get a crucial second win in MAC play.
When NIU has the ball
Question: Who is going to play the majority of snaps at QB for NIU on Saturday?
Answer: Who knows?
Rod Carey has gone from Ryan Graham to Daniel Santacanterina to Marcus Childers apparently and no one seems to know who will play when. The Huskies have been fairly solid with “Santa”, but the offense has been fairly stagnant most of the season. NIU is averaging just 195 yards/game through the air this year, which only beats Kent State and Western Michigan in terms of average yardage. Additionally, their efficiency rating is more “middle-of-the-pack”, meaning that even when they are passing, the Huskies aren’t always doing so with the best of results (NIU has 3rd most interceptions thrown this year).
Complicating matters is the fact that the NIU isn’t running the ball well either. Carey’s team is 5th in yards/game in the MAC, but their 3.8 yards/rush mark is only higher than EMU, CMU, Kent State, and Miami. However, Jordan Huff has been warming up lately, and his 81.8 yards/game is third in the MAC. He just has to find the end zone.
Waiting for them is a defense that just had to play a seven overtime game, but is led by Khalil Hodge, whose Bossness is on another level. The junior linebacker has a MAC-leading 82 tackles, which obliterates the next highest mark. Behind Hodge is a secondary that is 2nd in the MAC in passing yards allowed per game, even after playing that epic game with WMU last week.
The Bulls do technically have the worst rush defense, but Western Michigan’s run heavy offense may skew the data. The Bulls’ 4.7 yards/rush allowed average is better than the five MAC teams ahead of them.
When Buffalo has the ball
This is gonna be fun to watch, as the Bulls’ spread offense goes up against the best defense in the MAC. It’s a shame we won’t see Tyree Jackson play in this one, but Drew Anderson has been superb in his absence, throwing for 848 yards and nine touchdowns with a 60.2% completion rating. Sure most of those yards and touchdowns came last week as he set the MAC record for passing yards in a game, but you still have to be good to do it.
It also helps when you have a guy like Anthony Johnson to throw to. The junior wide-out has 37 catches this year for 631 yards and five scores. He was a big reason why Buffalo took the Broncos to overtime last week, and his match-up against Shawun Lurry on Saturday will be must-watch TV (live stream?). Additionally, Emmanuel Reed has been stellar in the backfield, as he has gained 402 yards on a 4.3 yards/rush average and five scores stepping in for the injured Johnathan Hawkins.
But the Huskie defense is unrelenting. At 260.8 yards/allowed per game, it is by far the most stout in the MAC. At 104.4 rushing yards allowed per game, they hold the top spot there, just ahead of Ohio. And that good pass efficiency against by Buffalo? You guessed it, topped by Lurry and company. But the Bulls’ rank third in the MAC in pass efficiency, so it’ll be one of the first true tests of the Huskie secondary this season.
Prediction
The fact that NIU has had very little offense is concerning now that they must face teams that can actually score. Huff getting going is a good sign, but this game could come down to some late passing, and I just don’t trust NIU to do well in that aspect at this time. That said, Buffalo has to turn around from a grueling seven overtime loss and face a stellar defense. This will be close, but the Huskies are just too strong physically and the Bulls will wear down late as the Huskies run out the clock.
Northern Illinois 27, Buffalo 17
