Mid American Gambler Likes Akron to Reprise its Role as Spoiler, Miami to Light up Bowling Green

Can Akron provide a sequel to last week’s big Northwestern upset? Is This finally NIU’s week after some near wins the last two times out?

Welcome to the Mid-American Gambler, a weekly installment where Justin makes his picks against the spread on every MAC football game (and a few others too). You can follow him on Twitter @NIFFOCNITSUJ or email him at fosatblog@gmail.com.

It was another below average week for the Mid-American Gambler, going 4–4 against the spread in the MAC and 1–2 on the bonus picks. That brings the overall record to 14–17 for the year. I’m sure it could be worse, but right now a few teams are giving me fits. First, NIU is having a bad year against the number. It’s not like it hasn’t been close, but it’s just finding itself in games with double-digit spread totals and not performing the way it has historically. Ohio is also off to an incredibly slow start. Maybe Virginia is better than it’s given credit for, but Ohio just isn’t the runaway favorite we thought it would be. On to the next week with a short memory. As always, my picks and the line are in bold:

Kent State @ Ole Miss (-28)

I expected the Flashes to come down to Earth last week and they did against Penn State. This week they head south to play their first of two games in a city named Oxford to take on Ole Miss. The Rebels and Flashes have a ton in common this week as they were both bludgeoned a week ago. Ole Miss had the misfortune of playing Alabama who looks every bit the best team in the country right now. I’m not sure Kent State can stop an offense that is scoring 61.5 points per game against teams not named Alabama.

Buffalo (-5.5) @ Rutgers

The Bulls are the most complete team in the MAC until further notice after their pretty convincing, albeit close, win against Eastern Michigan last week. There’s probably a number of things I could say to convince you Buffalo is good enough to beat Rutgers by a touchdown, but, I mean, are you familiar with Rutgers football? Nothing more needs to be said.

Akron (+18.5) @ Iowa State

I did not expect Akron to win last week at Northwestern, but I did expect it to cover. The question is can the Zips do it again this week? I’m not sure there’s a way they can considering outside of the three turnovers they didn’t do much well against the Wildcats. Can they cover though? Sure, let’s ride with the Zips one more time before conference play.

Ohio @ Cincinnati (-9)

These two teams are polar opposites of each other on paper. Cincinnati plays great defense and is slow to catch up on offense. Ohio is strong offensively but hasn’t figured it out on defense. Which team’s worst unit is going to create the margin in this game? Right now I don’t have a ton of confidence in Ohio’s defense to get the job done and I look for Cincinnati by 10 at home.

Nevada @ Toledo (-10)

When the Wolfpack defense takes the field in the Glass Bowl on Saturday, lined up across from them will be the best offense they’ve seen all season. Nevada was last seen giving up 35 points to Oregon State and then 41 to Vanderbilt the week before. The Rockets should have no trouble moving the ball, but can Nevada score enough to stay in striking distance? I’m not convinced they can.

Western Michigan (-7.5) @ Georgia State

If this line was 10 or more I’d be a little nervous, but I think WMU has the firepower to beat this Georgia State team that nearly lost to Kennesaw State in week one and then gave up 40 or more points in back to back weeks. Now, WMU hasn’t been great on defense against good offenses either, so could the Panthers keep it close in a shootout? Probably. If they do, this WMU defense is in rough shape.

Miami (-6.5) @ Bowling Green

Miami’s running game is ailing. It’s offense is ailing. The RedHawks have scored just three points in their last eight quarters of football. You know what cures all offensive ailments? Bowling Green’s defense.

Western Kentucky @ Ball State (-3)

Western Kentucky lost to Maine. It also lost to Louisville by three. Ball State lost to Notre Dame by eight. It lost to Indiana by 28. If anyone knows what’s going on with these two teams please let me know. I’m giving the nod to the Cardinals here because they can run the football and WKU can’t stop it.

Northern Illinois (+10.5) @ Florida State

Yeah, I don’t know. I saw Florida State against Syracuse last week and just can’t pick them to cover anything right now, including spreads.

Eastern Michigan @ San Diego State (-10.5)

The Eagles are fantastic on the road against the spread. However, they failed to cover last week against Buffalo and are taking a very difficult road trip to San Diego this week. Paciffic time zone is a pain in the ass.

Bonus Picks

Each week I like to pick three games outside of the MAC I think are worth your time. Here’s my picks this week:

Stanford (-2) @ Oregon

I don’t really like taking a road favorite in this scenario, but Oregon hasn’t played anybody so far. Stanford’s had to endure San Diego State and USC to start the season, and while USC is basically a tire fire at the moment, it’s better than Bowling Green.

Nebraska @ Michigan (-19.5)

Hoo boy, have you seen Nebraska?

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (+2.5)

S&P+ basically sees this game as a pick ’em, so give me the Commodores at home