FoSat Week Six MAC Football Recap: Shorter Miami RedHawks: We’re Not Dead Yet

Miami and Ball State proved they might have a bit more to say about 2018 before it’s all said and done, even if the latter dropped its first MAC game of the year. The Michigan MAC Trophy fight kicked off this weekend as well with WMU and EMU playing in another close game.

What Happened?

• Buffalo 34 Central Michigan 24: Buffalo got 288 yards from a pair of freshman running backs in Kevin Marks and Jaret Patterson. Marks had the most impressive run of the day, rattling off a 70 yard touchdown at a pivotal point in the game as Central Michigan looked to make it interesting. The Chippewas lost by just 10 at home despite turning the ball over four times and getting more yards per carry from their quarterback than yards per pass.

• Western Michigan 27 Eastern Michigan 24: The Eagles, who struggle to run the football, actually out ran Western Michigan on Saturday, a team that doesn’t struggle to run the football. Even so, Eastern lost yet another one score game and fell to 0–3 in MAC play, all but burying its shot at a MAC West title. Mike Glass was fantastic for the Eagles, leading the team in both rushing and passing, accounting for two thirds of EMU’s offense. For Western, the game turned on a big play from Jon Wassink and D’Wayne Eskridge and allowed everyone in Waldo Stadium to head home after a happy homecoming. Especially the players:

• Northern Illinois 24 Ball State 16: We all know NIU plays good defense, and on Saturday they had to play a lot of it. Ball State ran nearly 100 plays and managed just over four yards per play and 16 points. Riley Neal threw 56 passes and completed 32 of them without a touchdown or an interception. That honestly feels tough to do. NIU’s Marcus Jones was the force to be reckoned with, racking up 130 yards on just 12 carries to bury the Cardinals.
• Ohio 27 Kent State 26: Kent State showed a lot of growth behind another big day from Justin Rankin, who carried the ball 16 times for 123 yards, but was unable to pull off the upset in Dix Stadium over the Bobcats. The Flashes actually led 20–7 in the game but were outscored 20–6 the rest of the way behind a strong second half from Nathan Rourke, who finished with 333 yards of total offense and two touchdowns.
• Miami 41 Akron 17: Akron actually led 17–14 in the third quarter of this game. That’s the Zips for you, on any given week they find a way to do the impossible. It was a rough day all around for Akron though. The Zips turned the ball over five times and were out gained by 163 yards, allowing 208 yards on the ground to a Miami team that has struggled running the ball all year. The RedHawks got a big day from linebacker Brad Koenig, who had two interceptions in the game.
• Toledo 52 Bowling Green 36: Eli Peters started in place of the injured Mitch Guadagni for the Rockets and got the job done. The final score makes it look pretty comfortable, but this game was actually close for much of the day before Toledo rattled off three straight touchdow drives in the fourth quarter. Despite scoring 52 Toledo had a very un-Toledo like day throwing the ball, managing just 5.3 yards per pass. Bryant Koback was there to make up for it, however, carrying 11 times for 90 yards and three touchdowns.

Pay Attention to Ball State and Miami

Your favorite team’s season might come down to how well it plays against Ball State and Miami, and both schools look like they have a lot more to say about how 2018 shakes out than folks (including me) are giving them credit for. Let’s start with Ball State. The Cardinals have three losses by exactly eight points to Notre Dame, Western Kentucky and, after this week, Northern Illinois. They don’t look like a team that gets walked over very easily, which I’m sure is a welcome change in Muncie. Looking ahead at the remaining schedule, there’s not one game left that you couldn’t reasonably expect Ball State to have a shot at winning. Central Michigan is in a down year, Eastern Michigan is 0–3, and Western Michigan, Toledo and Ohio all appear to be lacking quite a bit on defense. Why not the Cardinals?

Ball State is third in the MAC West on defense in terms of yards per play at 5.5, putting them just ahead of EMU. The Cardinals are actually second in scoring defense at 24 points per game. This team is good enough on that side of the ball to give its offense a shot against the rest of the MAC West, and those teams expected to compete for the crown better not look past ball State.

For Miami, the case is a bit easier to make. The RedHawks are 2–1 in the MAC already and are very nearly 3–0. They’ve got a date with Kent State next weekend and should expect to win and get to 3–1. Having already beaten up on defending MAC East champion Akron, Miami has more than a fighting shot to make it to Ford Field after all. Buffalo doesn’t look as invulnerable as it did three weeks ago, and Ohio looks to be a good antidote to many an offensive woe. Miami still plays good defense, ranking second in yards per rush allowed and fifth in overall yards per play. It gave up 40 points in week four but not every offense is going to be Western Michigan’s. The RedHawks will need to improve on offense to get the job done — only Central Michigan has fewer first downs per game — but they may end up making the same wager as NIU, which is “well actually, no we don’t.” Who knows, maybe they’re right.

Quick Thoughts on Week Six

• NIU probably isn’t going to blow many people out the rest of the way. The offense just isn’t good enough.
• That was a statement win by Miami, and shows how you can exploit Akron if you don’t waste opportunities
• What is going on with Ohio? The Bobcats are fielding perhaps their worst defense in 10 years. It could come back to haunt them.
• Central Michigan has a lot of fight, and is going to beat someone. I don’t know who, but they’re going to beat someone.
• Eastern Michigan’s decision to kick a field goal down 10 instead of going for it on fourth down is a classic misstep. Yes, you need a field goal AND a touchdown, but you have to consider the probabilities in play. Getting into field goal range is much easier than scoring a touchdown with one timeout and no time left. What’s more likely, converting a 4th and 3 in the red zone and scoring a touchdown on the drive or recovering an onside kick and going on to score a touchdown?

A Look Ahead at Week Seven

• Akron probably can’t fall to 0–2 in the MAC and defend its title. The Zips are at Buffalo and could upend a lot of what we thought we knew about the East to this point.
• Toledo travels to Eastern Michigan and with NIU and WMU both unbeaten in MAC play it will have to win. EMU is a desperate team with an aggressive defense that can make life difficult for the Rockets.
• Alright Miami, you’ve got Kent State coming to town. I know the Flashes nearly beat Ohio this week, but this is a game you can’t lose. Getting to 3–1 in MAC play and Ohio not looking great makes things very interesting for the RedHawks.
• WMU is at Bowling Green. Lose that game and you might as well just hand NIU the trophy now.
• Ohio at NIU is a game that looked way more interesting six weeks ago than it does now. But NIU is 3–0 in the MAC and Ohio is looking to keep pace with Buffalo. It should be a fun one, but I’m not so sure this is the MAC Championship preview we all expected.