Mid American Gambler Week 11: Kent State Will Rely on Mother Nature to Hang With Buffalo
Welcome to the Midwest in November!
Welcome to the Mid-American Gambler, a weekly installment where Justin makes his picks against the spread on every MAC football game (and a few others too). You can follow him on Twitter @NIFFOCNITSUJ or email him at fosatblog@gmail.com.
Last Week: 5–1 in the MAC, 3–0 Bonus Picks
Overall Record: 48–48–1
Last week was easily the best since I started writing this weekly gambling post. Only Eastern Michigan and its turnovers inside CMU territory stopped this from being a perfect week. It marks the third straight week with a winning record in MAC play, which I attribute to the lines being a lot dumber with more bettors unfamiliar with the MAC chipping in to make the weeknight games more interesting.
This week looks very weird considering the November weather, games between awful teams and a lot of programs playing on very short rest. Let’s keep the momentum up and make Middle America some money. As always, my picks in bold.
Kent State +21 @ Buffalo
The weather is going to be wet ass, and I don’t really know if that favors any team in particular. The last turnover heavy game Kent State played in was a one point loss to Ohio, which is the week before the Bobcats started laying waste to everybody, so I like Kent State to lose by 18 here in a game that ordinarily shouldn’t be close.
Ohio -3.5 @ Miami
It’s very, very difficult for me to bet against Ohio the way it’s playing right now. It’s especially difficult since the Bobcats have beaten Miami outright 12 of the last 13 seasons.
Toledo +3 @ Northern Illinois
Feels like low 20’s territory for both teams in a game that’s historically pretty close. This figures to be a one-score game all the way, and I’m betting that one score is a field goal for NIU.
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -13
Vegas has been overvaluing EMU at home as of late, and I fell for it both times against Army and Central Michigan in consecutive weeks. On the podcast yesterday I said I didn’t like the Eagles here, but Akron’s probably going to start a backup quarterback. I’m falling for it again. Fly Eagles, fly.
Bowling Green +7.5 @ Central Michigan
Bowling Green is objectively terrible. Central Michigan is objectively terrible. The Chippewas are good at home but if you’re telling me I need to depend on them to win by more than a touchdown and an extra point to cover the spread I’m going with whoever’s on the other side of the field.
Bonus Picks
Each week I like to pick three games outside of the MAC I think are worth your time. Here’s my picks this week:
South Florida @ Cincinnati -12
Maybe the Bulls are sick of getting trounced, but being sick of it isn’t going to stop teams from trouncing them.
San Jose State @ Utah State -31
The Aggies are just clobbering teams right now and really look like they’re making a statement to the college football playoff committee to try and get into that New Year’s Six conversation that really should be more crowded than it is for the G5.
Purdue -12 @ Minnesota
P.J. Fleck just fired his defensive coordinator after giving up 55 points to Illinois. If it’s one thing Purdue’s offense is known for it’s being worse than Illinois…right? Right?
