US Freeway Friday Update — 19 August 2022
See what is happening in the non-US Freeway ecosystem with the video update below from the global platform.
In this week’s edition of the Freeway Weekly Update, you can meet the new superstars of Business Development and get a tingly feeling from Freeway’s first $25k charitable donation.
Hey #FreewayFam,
Freeway donates first $25k to charitable causes
We believe finance can be a force for good in the world.
While we work on building a fairer financial system from the ground up, Freeway is also helping people in more direct ways, through the Freeway Charity Supercharger.
As promised last week, we have kicked off round 1 of our donations with an initial sum of over $25,000, to be donated to a list of charities nominated by our community.
And there’ll be plenty more where that came from, as the Charity Supercharger continues to earn rewards on its remaining balance of over $147,000 in the USD Supercharger simulation.
Freeway’s Charity Supercharger is very much a community effort and we want the FreewayFam to continue to nominate charities and causes they’d love to see supported, by tweeting with the hashtag #FreewayCharitySupercharger.
Now I’m feeling all tingly inside, but before we look at Freeway’s latest growth stats, there’s more good news for Freeway users.
Because this week, referral rewards earned within the Supercharger simulation by Freeway users, surpassed $2.5 million dollars! And all within just six months since Freeway’s referral rewards program went live!!!
Freeway’s Latest Growth Stats
You may have heard the old adage that says ‘Sell in May and go away’. While it has certainly been quieter this summer, Freeway hasn’t stopped growing. In fact, Supercharger simulations, for global and US platforms combined, look set to break the $170 million mark any day soon.
Now here are the latest figures in full…
- US Freeway users = 5,934
- US total Supercharger simulations = $34,318,602
- US closed-loop FWT staked = 649,001,613
Meet Our Biz Dev Dream Team
Freeway has been on a hiring spree lately and we’ll be revealing some new faces in all areas of the business soon.
New business is obviously critical to driving Freeway’s continued growth, so I’m delighted to introduce some big hitters and recent new joiners to the Biz Dev dream team.
First up it’s the Professor of Projects, Tom Franklin, who brings a wealth of experience from traditional finance that can help make Freeway a major force in digital finance.
Next, it’s Mr Institution, Khy King, who is focusing on building key relationships with institutional customers, using his extensive network of friends and contacts in the city.
And finally, a name that needs no introduction for many in the FreewayFam, Matt Oxborrow, aka The Closer, who leads the Biz Dev team on its mission to further Freeway’s growth.
And if you happen to be in Singapore soon, you can meet the team in person at the Token 2049 Singapore event. They’d love to meet you, so reach out on Telegram if you’d like to hook up and chat about all things Freeway…
… and I’ll be introducing more new faces to you over the next few weeks and months as we continue building the Freeway dream team.
Guerrilla of the Week: C.M. Bison
TG: @bisonautoshop
C.M. Bison is one of the most talkative of the FreewayFam, and we love following all of the chatter.
Around since the earlier days of Freeway, C.M. Bison has always been great at helping newcomers, constantly adding value to conversations and cheering Freeway from the rooftops into the Twittersphere.
All of which we are very grateful for, and we feel you definitely deserve some recognition for being such a valued community member.
Congratulations on this week’s GOTW award!
Agent Alpha on: Why crypto is confounding the pros
Agent Alpha’s statements are solely his own opinions and market commentary, are for entertainment, and are neither endorsed by, nor represent the views of Freeway. You should always do your own research and seek independent expert financial advice.
Crypto is confounding many a pro out there right now, myself included, as there is no clear and obvious reason for the latest market pressure.
From July through to early August, it looked like crypto was teeing up for a concerted break higher, as markets in general got their ‘freak-on’ in a risk on environment. Bitcoin specifically had a nice trending up turn with its MAVs all supportive (barring the 200 MAV which sits way higher at c. $30800 — remember it is ‘exponential MAVs that matter for pro-technicians NOT ‘simple’ MAVs, and regular Alpha readers will be aware of that). But as I type today, Bitcoin is sitting on support and the weakness makes little sense to me.
My best guesses are threefold….
First — and I am going to talk about this today below — we have a general market, massive options expiry today coming up c. $+2.1 Trillion. Into this Op-Ex event, we have seen very thin market activity (to be expected this time of year, and considering the big bull run through July/early August), with markets consolidating and unwinding over bought dynamics in a consolidation and choppy tape. Bitcoin et al will have been steadily pressured as this has been building up.
Second — the latest ‘puke’ move to c. $22k as I type on Bitcoin, could perhaps (and I am heavily speculating here) have something to do with the ‘meme’ stock blow-up once again filtering through, this time relating to the price action of Bed Bath & Beyond. Leveraged positions taking another ‘bath’ (see what I did there?) are perhaps ricocheting once again into crypto land — it’s tenuous but possible)
Third — it could be Europe and most notably Germany. The growing pressures on the European economy are rapidly ratcheting higher. The Rhine river water levels are at near record lows and preventing barge traffic during the drought is an added concern. This morning, German producer prices for July rocketed way past consensus +37.2% YoY, which is staggering as the energy costs over gas shortages are moving exponentially. What this all means is that fixed income yields in the Euro Area are rising rapidly, placing the ECB in one hell of a bind as sovereign spread risk with the periphery, once again comes back into play.
Such stress filters out into riskier areas of the markets — so should not be ignored and can obviously influence the crypto markets negatively.
Which of these factors is most likely the cause? It’s unclear…..but they are nonetheless relevant.
- Op-Ex (to be discussed in full below) — is an event risk, BUT my view is that it will soon be over with.
- Meme stock ricochet — short-term, if indeed it has anything to do with it.
- Euro Area pressures building at pace — hard to call because this is by far the most vulnerable of all the areas in the world’s major economies.
So here is my chart on Bitcoin — and considering my view on markets in general I see no reason whatsoever to change my uber bullish view.
To markets and I am talking technicals today
It is OPEX day today with c. $2.1Trillion of option notional expiring. Markets have been very thin into this liquidity event (understandably considering time of year) and levels are at key technical areas so this could well be a significant market inflection event, or it could be (considering it is so widely anticipated) a total non-event. Only time will tell, but what is important for investors to appreciate is that this Op-Ex dynamic has acted as a magnet for indices of late (as they tend to do) and the BIG level to watch in the SPX is c. 4300.
What I want to highlight is that after this expiry, delta hedging influences in major indices are going to fall away (until the next Op-Ex approaches).
What this means is that, firstly, investors will be provided with a direction as to the rolled-over ‘magnet’ areas for markets in the coming months, aka new option pricing strike zones. And, secondly, price action will not be influenced in the coming weeks by the magnet overhang that has been increasingly influencing general price action, as the event gets ever closer.
I reiterate to Alpha readers that the undoubted market investor’s consensus out there, is that we’ve reached the peak of the bear market rally (I remind readers to my point in the mid-week Alpha piece, which talked about Bank of America’s Chief Strategist, Hartnett’s call to ‘fade’ the S&P index > 4328+). And maybe this Bitcoin rolling price action is anticipating the general market fall ahead (once Op-Ex is out of the way), if Bitcoin is not influenced by the current Op-Ex magnet dynamic.
BUT this is not my view.
My view is that once Op-Ex is out of the way, the markets’ consolidation pattern of late, unwinding overstretched RSI dynamics etc, is ready to take the next leg higher thus testing the RIGHT shoulder area of the markets c. +5 to +7% from current levels, which will then negate that longer term H&S bearish setup from September ’21 (again, regular Alpha readers will understand my reference on that point).
But for those not familiar, the NDX (Nasdaq) technically makes this point.
NDX sits currently on the 200 MAV and 10-day MAV (golden cross(es)) area, aka significant support.
That right shoulder of the longer-term head & shoulders pattern sits c. +13% from here (horizontal red line), which once taken out (and it will be) will negate the entire structural bearish market setup in play since September ’21. I highlight how approaching the Op-Ex event, volumes in the recent consolidation market phase have been declining, whilst RSI has pulled back from overbought levels. Ignoring all else, this is a VERY healthy bull market setup.
Caveat: should Op-Ex set the scene for a rollback (which I very much doubt), lots of support in play towards the 13k handle, only after a head & shoulders neckline breach (diagonal white line) <13k(ish). Only then do we potentially see the bearish pattern re-establish.
I am going to finish with a reference to the US 2/10 nominal yield Treasury spread.
Why? Because it has bottomed and is starting to rise back higher. What this tells us is that the FED pivot has already begun (this week’s FOMC minutes pretty much confirmed the FED doesn’t want to ‘overdo things’), and as a result of this, the recession in the States is looking less worrisome with each passing week.
The markets are getting more and more comfortable that the FED is not going to commit insane policy error by tightening too hard and too fast — as I have been saying for months.
The spread rising once again is the market pricing out economic Armageddon.
Until next time,
Alpha
Tuesday’s AMA on Telegram
Once a week, usually on a Tuesday at 6pm UTC, Freeway holds an internal AMA in the Freeway Telegram channel that gives the community a chance to ask direct questions with core team members.
You can find the transcript or recording from last Wednesday’s AMA session here.
Click below to join the official Freeway Telegram group.
If you’d like to participate in the next AMA on Tuesday at 6pm UTC, where you can ask Graham anything, join the Freeway Official Telegram group here.
As always, we love hearing from you, so please join us on Telegram, follow us on socials, and if you want to hear from us and you want to hear it first, sign up for the newsletter.
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Until next week,
Sadie Hutton
Co-Founder and CEO
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