The Arab Spring

With our analysis of the Suez crisis one week ago, I thought it would be interesting to write about an issue in that particular area of the world that involves the power and influence of the British Empire. All across the Middle East, we are experiencing sectarian, tribal, and clannish struggles due to the breakdown of states set up centuries ago by European powers who invaded the area and drew borders on a map. Much like in Africa, borders were often drawn according to the geographical, economic, or military benefit of one or the other party, with ethnic demographics often being completely ignored.

What area are we talking about exactly? North Africa, beginning with Morocco and Algeria, and basically everything to the East including Egypt, Syria, Iraq, etc. In this region of the world, the so-called “nation state” is a European concept as opposed to the great dynastic empires that traditionally ruled in the region. After their initial invasion, the Europeans left behind some countries that would have long historical identities, such as Tunisia or Egypt, and some countries that were merely a confederation of tribes. Libya, for example, is little more than a geographical expression. What is common in all of these countries when looking at demographics is the concept of community. Unfortunately, the states don’t match those communities. This mis-match results in tension between the state that was created by the Europeans and the communities that exist there. For example, Iraq consists of Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the middle, and Shiaites in the South.

The Arab Spring is characterized by a wave of demonstrations and protests against dictatorial leaders who have been in power for many years, sometimes decades. Beginning in Tunisia in 2010 and then moving to Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and finally to the bloodiest conflict in Syria, populations are rising up against leaders all over the region. In my opinion, the unrest in the Middle East is far from over because new governmental entities have yet to form in the wake of post-colonial dictatorship. What is your opinion? How long will it take to stabilize the region? Will it ever be stabile again?