The Spectre Of War Upon Europe
Like all major political shifts, the Brexit can but bring about speculations. First we had Donald Trump stepping in, pretending he didn’t want to meddle but still claiming Britain would be “better off” without the EU. A few days after, George Osborne trailered his short-term costs of the UK leaving the European Union publication in those terms: “It’s already clear from there treasure analyses that for example there will be a significant shock to the housing market.” But we must have reached this week’s climax with David Cameron’s speech on Monday. Really, the Brexit is getting even more thrilling than Friends.
I don’t even know where to begin anymore. So many comments to make, so many opinions to develop.
Let us simply focus on Cameron. Much will be written about his recent assumption that Britain leaving the European Union might quite possibly lead to war.[1]
“The European Union has helped reconcile countries which were once at each others’ throats for decades. Britain has a fundamental national interest in maintaining common purpose in Europe to avoid future conflict between European countries.
And that requires British leadership, and for Britain to remain a member. The truth is this: what happens in our neighbourhood matters to Britain.”
Now here is the heart of his argument, as long as the matter of a European war is concerned:
1. If Britain leaves the EU, there will be wars. Between which countries remains unclear for now.
2. Britain needs leadership. Britain needs to merge.
I actually wonder what wars Cameron foresees here. I do not say it is impossible for some of the EU nations to be at war in a recent future, but I doubt that the UK leaving the European Union will bring about an intra-European war. Brexit does not mean the end of the European dream — unless you see the Brexit as the Fall of the Wall of the European dream. He must thus be considering wars between Britain and some EU nations. But why? And can Britain really stand facing war against its European neighbours? This assumption would have deserved further explanation.
The second point of his argumentation actually brings a new light on these weak points. Cameron seems to believe that the European nations are not able to handle themselves and would in point of fact fall back into their past errors, should Britain not reside among them.
The final idea behind his speech is not that Britain needs to remain in the European Union because of some productive collaboration. It is that the European Union is the place from where the European Nations can be directed. That’s quite a paternalist point of view. Not to say imperialist.
Now — the fact is that I’m not sure I would mind if the UK left the EU. In many discussions, Britain is the only non-productive partner. Social and ecological matters are disregarded by the British Eurodeputees, who more often than not keep the other countries from making progress.[2] Yesterday, Cameron told me why it is so. Britain is not there for the same reasons as the rest of the European nations. Britain is there to have influence — without being influenced back. But here is one thing we all need to learn: the EU cannot be a substitute to the Commonwealth.
Sources:
Cameron’s Full Speech: http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/05/camerons-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html
Osborne’s warning: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/08/brexit-hit-house-prices-significantly-george-osborne-eu-referendum
Donald Trump on the Brexit: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/05/donald-trump-brexit-uk-leaving-european-union
That nice article I suggested you to read: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/brexit-europe-wildlife-eu
(Yes, I appreciate the Guardian. How did you guess?)
[1] To read the full (sometimes rather picturesque and sentimentalist than argumentative) speech: http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/05/camerons-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html
[2] Here is an interesting article developping my opinion on the matter: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/09/brexit-europe-wildlife-eu
