What got the ball rolling — or: What makes UKIP so successful?
As we all know, June 23 will be a big day for the UK: the historical referendum deciding whether to stay in the EU or to leave it will take place (again, as a similar referendum on the EEC was already held in 1975…so much for that). But how did we get there (again)?
The whole thing got off the ground with the current PM David Cameron’s pledge to hold a referendum on the EU question in the run-up to the 2015 general election. The attentive observer will now remark that David Cameron himself, in his latest speeches, recommended that the UK should stay in the EU and that they would be “better off IN Europe”…
…so why launch a referendum with the risk of a vote AGAINST membership in the EU in the first place? Well, that is a different story, and it has to do with a party which ran up for an election for the first time in 1994 and has been growing in voters’ support ever since: the UK Independence Party, or UKIP. As the name already suggests, UKIP’s key policy goal is the Brexit. Now, support for this party became stronger and stronger, while gaining 3.2 per cent of votes in the 2010 general election, UKIP received a solid 27.5 per cent in the 2014 European elections and their result in the upcoming 2015 general election was expected to be much stronger than that of 2010.
So what to do if you face pressure from UKIP on the one side, pressure from eurosceptic backbenchers in your own (Conservative) party on the other and a growing sense of fear and uncertainty in European matters among the population on top, but you nevertheless want to win the election? You promise the people the chance to decide on their international future themselves in order to convince them to vote for you and to appease your eurosceptic party members at the same time. And then hope that people will take the right decision, which is what David Cameron is probably doing at the moment. But how did a eurosceptic party like UKIP, definitely also displaying racist tendencies, end up this successful in a country like Britain?
Is it their charismatic leader?
Of course, we’ve all heard of Nigel Farage…if you follow the British news regularly, especially before elections, there is no getting around him these days. Mr Farage drinking beer, Mr Farage pleasurably smoking a cigar, Mr Farage sometimes smirking, sometimes laughing full-throated, but almost always pulling faces of some sort — if you search for Nigel Farage in Google pictures, you’ll find only few of him where he looks the way we imagine a high-ranking politician to look like or to pose for pictures. Only few of him where he looks serious, thoughtful or puts on the light smile often seen on, also UKIP, election posters. Also, if you read about him, or just follow the news, you get an unfamiliar impression: he often comes across as rude, unconventional, provoking, insulting — way out of line sometimes. And yet, people experience him as quite charismatic, he moves them, troubles them, and situates himself amongst them. He claims to follow the interests of the small people, small firms, people who, from UKIP’s point of view, have no real economic advantages from the EU but nonetheless have to follow their rules. He himself breaks conventions, resigns, then unresigns shortly after, and breaks taboos. No matter how, he appears to be able to reach people — and thus certainly has a part in UKIP’s popularity.
Is it the fear of a loss of “traditional” British values and the British “uniqueness”?
The Britons have always perceived themselves as, in many respects, a “unique” folk: they are very proud of their Westminster Model, they have very special traditions like the extensive cult around the royal family and do not see themselves in need of a codified constitution fixing things like the liberal democratic system, civil liberties and human rights in writing. Something like the rise of National Socialism is considered impossible. They have always sensed their political culture consolidated enough, liberal and democratic values so internalized by the population that they don’t have to be protected by acts. Yet with membership in the EU, people can refer to the European Convention of Human Rights and in 1998, it was even made British law in the form of the Human Rights Act. Also many regulations, of economic, ecologic or other nature, have come with European integration. UKIP, of course, has on its agenda the cutback of these regulations and, not surprisingly, the abolition of the Human Rights Act. Additionally, the UKIP policy has a patriotic ring to it, calling upon traditional British values and promoting reorientation towards the Commonwealth, e.g. in the form of the establishment of a free trade agreement.
Is it the fear that immigration is getting out of control?
Many people in the UK are certainly afraid of growing and growing immigration figures, open borders, and losing their jobs to all these foreigners who come to their country. This, of course, is another UKIP key policy: the stop of uncontrolled immigration, and so this fear absolutely plays into their hands. However, for all these worried UK citizens out there, it should be noted that the greater part of immigrants comes from outside the EU, especially Commonwealth countries.
Is it an international European trend?
Following an alarming trend, the UK is not the only country in Europe where a rightwing populist party is on the rise. Whether Front National in France, FPÖ (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs) in Austria, AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) in Germany or the very UKIP in Britain, they all give voice to those groups in the population who fear the impact of immigration and international mobility. The recent refugee wave of course has increased these feelings.
While writing this blog entry and thinking about the referendum, one question came into my mind again and again: Is it imaginable that at some point in the future, there would be a similar referendum in Germany? What seems rather far-fetched is not impossible: Although Germany is strongly pro-EU and the AfD is not straightforwardly promoting a “Germanexit”, they at least want to change the terms of EU membership and bear certain parallels to UKIP. They both describe themselves as libertarian, non-racist parties and distance themselves explicitly from their rightwing extremist “colleagues” (the NPD in Germany and the BNP in the UK) while, in their manifestos, clearly displaying racist tendencies. A study from 2014 (see below) I recently read claimed that amongst the European Eurosceptics, UKIP is the only party succeeding in being “mainstream”. Unfortunately, the latest German regional election results and many surveys have shown that AfD in Germany is also on its best path to becoming a part of the mainstream. Let’s hope that Germany won’t follow the UK’s path in EU matters.
