Will Scotland call for a second independence referendum after a Brexit?

As I am going to Scotland for half a year this september, I am really interested in how far a Brexit would influence Scotland to become independent and thus did some research in different newspapers to see how likely an independence might be. On this page, I found a great interactive poll tracker where you can look up the overall public opinion or the opinion filtered by region, sex, age etc. On the 14 of June, we get these numbers for Scotland: 47% remain, 40% leave, 10 don’t know. We see that the supporters of the leave campaign are growing stronger in Scotland, too. However, I would have expected that the difference in Scotland would be much higher and that the numbers of the remain votes would be much larger. The difference between the leave and the remain votes is not that big and does not give a clear indication to what the actual results on June, 23 will be. This may be a reason to why Scottish politicians do not want to give precise statements about the implications of a Brexit for Scotland. Alex Salmond, the former SNP leader and the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon state that if Scotland will be taken out of the EU against its will, then a referendum will be triggered, nevertheless, both of them are careful in their formulations and are not giving any promises. Nicola Sturgeon, who is one of the leading figures for an independent Scotland, could play a huge role in Scotland’s claim for a referendum because much of the population likes her. In her opinion, many of the Scots voted against Scotland’s independence to be able to stay in the EU and could after a Brexit change their minds in a second referendum. But, I agree with this article that Sturgeon will not call for a second referendum unless she can be relatively sure to win it, a second ‘no vote’ would be a disaster for her and her party.

So, I think that even a Brexit would not necessarily mean an independent Scotland. Sure, many Scots would call for a second referendum, but we see that there are also at the moment 40% that do want Britain and consequently Scotland to leave the EU. Aditionnally, it will be questionable if all of the remaining 60% would want to become independent, a second referendum would thus be a huge risk for Sturgeon and the SNP. As everyone, I have to be patient and wait for the outcome of the referendum next week to get an indication of what Scotland will be like when I am going there in three months.