Would you bet on it?

When I listened to the news today I was a bit surprised when I heard that the British were betting on the Brexit. Of course one could have assumed that the British would do something like that, as gambling seems to be a popular sport in Great Britain. They bet on everything, sports in general and even on what name the next royal baby will have. So, why not bet on the Brexit as well?

How it works is, that the British bet on a certain event, in our case staying in the EU or leaving the EU. At the moment the calculated probability for staying in the EU is 72% whereas 28% are betting on the Brexit. Comparing it with older data we see that the probability of leaving the EU has decreased. Just last week the bet on leaving the EU was at 40%.

So is this a forecast on how the referendum will turn out? It is expected that about a few 100,000 British will gamble and statistic wise, they would normally be right predicting the outcome of political decisions. Moreover, on has to take into account that more people bet on this event than the polls can question.

If we compare it to the latest polls which state a 50%/50% chance, the data of the “bookies” brings confidence for the proponent for staying in the EU. I am not quite sure if “this betting” can predict the outcome of the referendum on June 23, as money is involved. However, what is certain, is that the “bookies” will make good bargain as it is expected that they will implement about 1,000000 £ with the betting on the Brexit.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sports-central/uk-eu-referendum/