Reimagining Niagara Parks Commission: A Foresight Analysis

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Uncovering how foresight can help promote regenerative tourism in Niagara Falls, Canada.

In a rapidly evolving world, the need for organisations to adapt and innovate is more pressing than ever. The Niagara Parks Commission (NPC), steward of one of Canada’s most iconic natural wonders, finds itself at a crossroads. The project explores potential futures for NPC, focusing on sustainable development, community engagement, and environmental stewardship. The research and analysis, rooted in strategic foresight methodologies, offers a visionary outlook on how NPC can navigate the complexities of the future while preserving the essence of Niagara.

Part 1: Introduction

Meet the Team

Debaditya Sekhar Jena, Chiara Garrido, Katie Sullivan, and Niranjan Kaur completed the project as part of the curriculum for the foresight studio course in the Strategic Foresight and Innovation program at OCAD University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

My Role, Tools Used, and Skills

• Role: I contributed significantly to the project by playing a pivotal role in analysing the Niagara Parks Commission’s (NPC) current state and potential future. My work involved co-developing scenarios that balanced economic growth with sustainability, ensuring NPC’s future planning aligned with broader social and environmental goals.
• Tools Used: Miro, Figma, Adobe Illustrator, Adobe Photoshop, Google Workspace, MS Suite
• Skills: Horizon Scanning, Scenario Planning, Sustainable Design, Presentation Skills, Communication Skills, Creativity, Analytical Thinking

Regenerative Tourism

Regenerative tourism represents an evolution in how we think about travel and its impacts on destinations. Unlike sustainable tourism, which minimises negative impacts, regenerative tourism aims to leave a positive footprint, actively revitalising and enhancing travel destinations' natural, cultural, and social environments.

Core Principles of Regenerative Tourism:

1. Enhancement and Improvement: Regenerative tourism seeks to improve and enhance the elements of a destination — natural, human, and human-made.
2. Collaborative Management: Successful regenerative tourism involves collaboration among government entities, private sector businesses, and civil society organisations​.
3. Quality over Quantity: Managing tourism with a focus on quality rather than quantity helps maintain a destination's character and identity.

Key Practices in Regenerative Tourism:

• Community Engagement: Regenerative tourism prioritises the involvement of local communities in developing and managing tourism initiatives.
• Environmental Restoration: Tourists and businesses engage in activities that restore and rejuvenate natural environments. This can include reforestation projects, beach cleanups, and efforts to restore local ecosystems.
• Economic Resilience: The focus is on creating sustainable economic opportunities that benefit local communities. This involves supporting small businesses, developing local supply chains, and ensuring that tourism revenues are retained within the community​.

Identity of a Place

Identity is the DNA of “place”: a collection of assets, history, traits and culture that distinguishes a place from other regions and thus has the potential to unite people within it. Niagara is particularly unique in terms of place, with a large portion of its identity being a range of tourist offerings. These span from a natural world wonder (the falls) to casinos, heritage sites, and haunted houses. When intentionally interconnected, hosting diverse experiences can enrich identity; however, in the case of Niagara, its differences are disjointed and disconnected.

Sense of Place

Niagara Parks Commission (NPC) owns a 56-kilometre stretch along the Niagara River, including Niagara-on-the-lake, Queenston, Niagara Falls, Chippawa, and Fort Erie. We’ve identified NPC as a throughway across the region, an opportunity to interconnect tourist offerings and unite visitors and locals with the Niagara Parks Commission and Niagara as a whole.

Problem Framing

Tourism, while economically beneficial, poses significant environmental and social challenges. Regions like Hawaii and Australia have implemented regenerative tourism practices to mitigate these impacts, serving as models for NPC. However, these efforts must be tailored to Niagara’s unique context to avoid unintended negative consequences. Understanding NPC’s distinct traits is crucial to developing effective and sustainable tourism strategies.

Part 2: Project Process

Erikson’s Theory

We used Erik Erikson’s theory of identity development to analyse NPC’s initiatives and characteristics, identifying key tension points. Combined with Emerging Issues Analysis and environmental scanning, this analysis formed the basis for understanding current and future challenges.

Erikson’s Map

Horizon Scanning

Horizon scanning is a systematic process used to detect early signs of potential developments, opportunities, threats, and likely future events before they fully emerge or become widely recognised. This foresight method involves continuously monitoring various sources of information, such as scientific literature, news articles, and expert opinions, to identify trends and weak signals that could impact future scenarios.

Trends and Drivers Overview

Using the STEEPV+L framework (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Values, Legal), the team identified 18 trends influencing NPC’s future. These include the rise of entertainment and senior recreation tourism, digital innovation, sustainable eco-tourism, localised tourism, reconciliation with Indigenous populations, and shifts in work-life balance and legal structures.

The analysis identified five major drivers shaping NPC’s future:

1. Environmental Destabilisation and Instability: Pollution and climate change impact natural resources and the tourist experience. NPC’s conservation efforts must adapt to these challenges.
2. Ageing Population: An older demographic presents both opportunities and challenges in healthcare, labour, and economic growth.
3. Local and Global Migration: Migration patterns contribute to Niagara’s cultural richness and necessitate adaptive infrastructure and services strategies.
4. Decolonisation: Recognising and integrating Indigenous rights and perspectives is essential for genuine reconciliation and sustainable development.
5. Everything as a Commodity: Tourism commodification can stimulate economic growth but risks environmental degradation and cultural dilution.

Part 3: Scenario Building

Anchored by current signals, our identified trends, five strong drivers, and a robust understanding of the Niagara Parks Commission’s identity, we started to develop alternate futures for the year 2043 using Generic Images of the Future conversationally: Grow, Collapse, Discipline, and Transformation.

Scenario Building Process

Jim Dator’s 4 Generic Futures method is a strategic foresight framework that outlines four potential future scenarios: Grow, Collapse, Discipline, and Transformation. These scenarios help organisations and policymakers explore and prepare for various possible futures. The Grow scenario assumes ongoing growth and technological development within existing systems. Discipline envisions a future where growth is constrained by sustainability efforts and resource limits. Collapse anticipates a breakdown of current systems due to catastrophic events. Transformation foresees a radical shift driven by technological innovations and changes in societal values, leading to new paradigms and structures​.

4 Generic Futures

We developed four potential scenarios for NPC’s future, each based on different responses to these drivers:

1. Growth (Wonderland): A highly commercialised future where economic gains are prioritised, potentially at the cost of social and environmental well-being.
2. Collapse (The Bill Comes Due): A future where NPC faces significant challenges due to environmental degradation and social unrest, leading to a rethinking of its strategies.
3. Discipline (The Real Wonderland): A sustainable and community-focused future where NPC leads in environmental conservation and social inclusivity.
4. Transform (NPC Edge Runner): A technologically advanced future where NPC leverages innovations to enhance tourism experiences while promoting environmental healing.

Part 4: Plausible Scenarios of NPC

Scenario 01: Wonderland: “Here For A Profitable Time, Not A Lifetime”

Wonderland: “Here For A Profitable Time, Not A Lifetime”

By 2043, Niagara Falls, dubbed the wonderland of Canada, is owned and managed by the Niagara Parks Commission (NPC). The NPC has transformed the park experience through automation and artificial intelligence for operations, management, and maintenance. Over the past two decades, the NPC has established sanctuaries to revive and protect local forests, grasslands, and wetlands and has invested in energy self-sufficiency with in-park power stations. Strategic expansions have extended NPC’s jurisdiction, including the construction of new attractions such as a walking bridge, observation decks, and restaurant complexes over Horseshoe Falls.

The new commercial and tourist experience centre recontextualises the region’s identity with Indigenous-themed attractions and cultural artefacts. While Niagara Parks remain free and accessible, new attractions focus more on entertainment than education, offering tour packages and VIP experiences. Enhanced public transit connections and electric vehicle charging stations promote sustainable access to the parks.

Niagara Parks is also a popular destination for weddings and offers modern funeral sites. The NPC collaborates with local healthcare facilities and supports the development of retirement communities along the parkway, catering to urban immigrants and the elderly population. They also provide local employment opportunities to maintain tourist attractions.

The Horticulture Institute of Niagara attracts national and international students focused on environmental protection and tourism development. It features butterfly conservatories and a zoo. NPC has a longstanding commitment to Indigenous reconciliation, promoting local culture and heritage through state-sponsored initiatives and community engagement.

The NPC advocates for liberal immigration policies to attract qualified immigrants, and diversified hiring practices are in place across local businesses. They collaborate with local colleges to hire talent, welcoming all to join and enhance the Niagara community.

Opportunities:

• Niagara Parks Commission adopted technology to revitalise, maintain, and operate the parks. Investing in new infrastructure, tourism and hospitality are the biggest driver of economic growth.
• The commission shifted its focus towards increasing the value of the Niagara region. Thus, attracting more businesses and communities willing to invest in the lands around the falls.
• New businesses and services in the tourism, hospitality, and healthcare industries create jobs requiring highly skilled workers.
• The positive view of Canadian colonial history leads to more businesses investing in “showcasing the indigenous culture of Niagara.”
• Greater focus on investment and revenue generation leads to the self-sufficiency of the Niagara region.

Barriers:

• Adopting a new economic policy may exaggerate environmental degradation.
• Rampant consumerism and financial incentives will reduce the focus on community building and the improvement of regional social services.
• Commercialising indigenous culture may deepen social rifts taking Canadian society away from true reconciliation.
• Fundamental rights of minorities, the poor, and under-represented communities may come under attack due to polarising politics and maintaining a tourist-friendly identity of the region.

Scenario 02: The Bill Comes Due: “What Goes Around Comes Around…”

The Bill Comes Due: “What Goes Around Comes Around…”

In 2043, Canada witnesses its first Indigenous Federal Government leadership, resulting in the official land transfer back to original Indigenous inhabitants. This shift brings tension and conflict, affecting businesses and causing uncertainty about enforcement. The Niagara Parks Commission (NPC) must now collaborate with government-affiliated Indigenous leaders to continue operations. Over the past decade, the concept of “Land Back” has been anticipated, but its practical implementation differs from campaign promises, leading to increased mistrust and societal division.

In Niagara, organised crime and church communities resist land transfers, with churches hosting daily virtual and in-person masses and fundraising to “Save the Lord’s Land.” Summer tourism spikes as people worry about the implications of the ownership transfer. NPC’s strategic focus on generative land use included limiting the horticultural school’s admission to Indigenous students to ease tensions, but enrolment remains low. Automated geriatric care facilities, developed in response to an ageing population, reflect NPC’s investment in technological advancements.

The NPC has also prepared for climate shifts, with horticultural students experimenting with resilient floral seeds. However, new admission restrictions have caused tensions among Ontario-based students. The falls are currently inaccessible pending leadership negotiations, but a 24-hour live stream is available via a nuclear-powered drone.

NPC leadership faces immense pressure, grappling with its identity and future amidst these changes. Despite past efforts to bridge historical gaps and include Indigenous narratives in their offerings, NPC questions where they went wrong and what more they can do to navigate this complex transition.

Opportunities:

• NPC cross-training employees makes them valuable resources and caretakers for the ageing population and assets to the Niagara region.
• As Land Back is happening nationwide, this is an opportunity to set a new standard and example of sharing the land if NPC can take a back seat in decision-making. If they are willing to be flexible, they can be a leader in reconciliation and model a positive way forward.
• This is the most explicit effort since the colonisation of acknowledging the stealing of land from Indigenous populations and adds to the depth of NPC and Canada’s identity; healing could come from this acknowledgement.
• Investment in areas outside of the land, like employee training, nuclear power, and agricultural tech, gives NPC innovative opportunities to share resources and advance its future if it is willing to let go of the focus on land.

Barriers:

• NPC's role and identity are unclear and largely out of their hands.
• It is unclear how the land transfer will impact NPC economically, so making decisions about the future feels nearly impossible.
• It is unclear whether past investments in nuclear energy and agricultural advancements will be beneficial to NPC moving forward.
• Without clear leadership and certainty, relationships within NPC are tense and disconnected, and employee retention hangs in the balance.
• Lack of true collaboration with Indigenous and marginalised populations in the past, as well as surface-level investments like statues and scripts, does not give NPC a strong leg to stand on when asking for trust from federal stakeholders moving forward.

Scenario 03: The Real Wonderland: “This Land Is Our Land”

The Real Wonderland: “This Land Is Our Land”

In 2043, Niagara’s growth and development are guided by natural and cultural values emphasising sustainability and environmental conservation. Significant changes include pedestrianising areas to reduce carbon emissions, fostering new economic activities, phasing out single-use plastics, and introducing electric vehicles. Visitor entries to attractions are limited to protect the natural environment, with transparent reporting on the tourist industry’s carbon footprint. The Niagara Parks Commission (NPC) leads sustainable park development, setting high materials, techniques, and energy systems standards.

Niagara is also designed to be accessible for its ageing population, with infrastructure and intergenerational events promoting greater interaction and understanding. The community values family, with younger generations moving back in with elders, strengthening family ties and fostering a vibrant, dynamic community where all ages support each other.

Inclusivity and community involvement are central to Niagara’s initiatives. The NPC prioritises local voices in decision-making and builds strong relationships with immigrants, creating a welcoming environment and fostering a sense of belonging and ownership among residents. The region embraces a community-oriented approach to land use, promoting collectivism through shared spaces while balancing mixed-use development to maintain public access to natural landmarks.

The success of the ‘Truth and Reconciliation’ initiative is evident in the increased representation of Indigenous people in leadership positions and the integration of their cultural traditions into the community. Niagara’s local economy thrives on equitable and sustainable principles, including living wages, universal basic income, and incentives for investing in sustainability initiatives. Ethical manufacturing and local products flourish, contributing to a resilient economy. Revitalisation efforts in downtown Niagara enhance community-touring interaction, introducing new activities for tourists to contribute to the region’s growth and vitality.

Opportunities:

• Value-based actions would help NPC preserve finite natural resources.
• With more families settling in, Niagara has become an attractive market for new retail chains. The diverse demographic also presents opportunities for greater investment in education and the development of business and innovation hubs.
• Enables more efficient and effective land usage as it is distributed for mixed uses (both public and private).
• Successful involvement of local communities and focus on environmental conservation sets the stage for regenerative tourism with activities that rejuvenate the culture and contribute to the maintenance of natural features.
• Reshaping NPC’s identity to that of a leader and redefining Niagara’s identity to a vibrant, diverse and community-oriented region with a thriving economy.

Barriers:

• It involves a lot of control and authority, which may not be welcomed.
• This scenario is too idealistic and involves greater investment in the growth of the community, which may be difficult if the capitalist mindset is not changed.
• The possible stifling of technological innovation and the investments and efforts are redirected for different purposes.
• It is unclear how wealth redistribution would occur and its long-term impacts (e.g., the possibility of limiting future growth).
• A lot of effort in this scenario requires long-term investment with delayed results.

Scenario 04: NPC Edge Runner: “This Water Used To Fall”

NPC Edge Runner: “This Water Used To Fall”

By 2043, Canada has embraced a highly inclusive form of nationalism that celebrates diversity irrespective of individuals’ backgrounds, religions, or ancestries. This inclusive nationalism is mirrored in Canadians' pride in their diverse society. The global technology race continues, with Niagara’s universities and colleges heavily investing in tech programs to produce highly skilled professionals essential for sustaining the Niagara Parks Commission (NPC) attractions through advanced technology.

The healthcare sector has also advanced significantly, with programs like “Extend Your Life” or “End Your Life” catering to the new accessibility needs of the elderly population. NPC offers VR and metaverse experiences for elders to enjoy Niagara’s attractions safely from home or within the park.

Environmentally, Niagara adopts a “surrender and let it be” philosophy, minimising human intervention to allow natural self-healing. While the falls clean themselves, a realistic projection of their pristine state is used, maintaining tourist appeal through “Artificial Beautification.” The butterfly conservatory now features robotic butterflies, avoiding the import of non-native species, and golf courses have moved indoors with VR enhancements.

NPC extends its reach through VR pop-up booths across Canada, offering realistic Niagara experiences without travel. Plans for a global VR tour are underway. Additionally, in response to past damages to Indigenous lands, a metaverse experience has been created to temporarily provide the Indigenous population with a sense of land ownership while the environment heals.

Opportunities:

• Niagara joining the technology race will help its economy grow exponentially. This is by investing in its population’s education, attracting local and international students to study there, and creating new jobs that these highly skilled workers will require.
• Thanks to technological advancements, “Cover-up” solutions to maintain NPCs' ongoing experiences help nature and the environment remain untouched and protected so they can heal properly.
• Increase in collective acceptance, inclusivity, and diversity in Canada.

Barriers

• Implementing the new environmental philosophy will not accelerate nature's healing process, and it might take decades to restore it.
• Metaverse solutions for indigenous populations might cause a social uproar against the government. Causing tensions within the general population.
• Coming to agreements with bigger corporations to collaborate with the new environmental philosophy might negatively impact their gains.

Part 5: Artefacts from the Future

We created several foresight artefacts designed to bring future scenarios to life and illustrate the potential outcomes and impacts of different strategic paths. We created an in-person immersive experience using various artefacts from the future. We selected the growth scenario for presentation purposes to understand the consequences of maintaining the current status quo.

These artefacts help stakeholders visualise and understand the implications of each scenario, making the abstract concepts more tangible and actionable.

Here are the key foresight artefacts mentioned in the dossier:

CEO Speech in the “Wonderland” Scenario:

This artefact presents a speech by the CEO of the Niagara Parks Commission (NPC) in the highly commercialised “Wonderland” scenario. The speech outlines NPC's achievements and future plans under this scenario, emphasising commercial success and technological advancements while subtly highlighting the underlying tensions and challenges.

Artefact of the Futures: CEO Script

Protester Interruption:

To complement the CEO's speech, a scenario in which a local protester interrupts it is included. This artefact captures the societal and community tensions in the “Wonderland” scenario, reflecting concerns about over-commercialisation, environmental degradation, and the commodification of Indigenous culture.

Artefact of the Futures: Protester’s Posters

Invitations, Newspapers, and Attractions Offered by NPC:

This artefact is a collection of invitation cards for dignitaries, newspaper articles, and a menu offering attractions built in over-commercialised Niagara Parks. These artefacts highlight the role of media in shaping public opinions and policies in the future. Together, they inform the nature of the world that may exist in the future.

Artefact of the Futures

Part 6: Learnings

• The foresight exercise emphasised the importance of comprehensive research, community engagement, and adaptability in scenario planning.
• Building believable and relevant scenarios requires understanding human development, leveraging diverse methodologies, and fostering productive discomfort to encourage reflection and growth.
• The process highlighted the necessity of balancing commercial interests with social and environmental responsibilities to create a sustainable and inclusive future for NPC.

Part 7: Conclusion

The Niagara Parks Commission stands at a pivotal moment, with the potential to shape a future that balances economic vitality, environmental stewardship, and social inclusivity. By embracing foresight methodologies and engaging in thoughtful scenario planning, NPC can navigate the complexities of the future while preserving Niagara's unique identity. The project provides a roadmap for NPC to become a sustainable and regenerative tourism leader, fostering a vibrant and resilient community for generations to come.