The “buspocalypse”, averted (for now)
We have more news on how the telcos are shutting down their 3G networks. What does that mean for public transport?
In a recent update to Singapore’s 3G phaseout schedule, it was revealed that only M1 will shut down its 3G network by the original deadline of the 1st of August. Singtel and Starhub have been given three more months to make the transition; they will now only shut down 3G services on the 1st of November. They are supposedly doing this in order to reuse the spectrum space for the rollout of 5G services.
It’s a deadline to watch, as our bus management systems still rely on the 3G network.
Great technology change and asset renewal in the bus network is coming up against greater changes in the policy landscape, and not just in public transport developments. Remember, also, that it was boldly declared that all new buses going forward will “primarily be electric” — and that also means electric bus infrastructure must be installed.
Or this all may prove to be a nothingburger. After all, there are cellular base stations in places where buses don’t go, like shopping mall basements and MRT stations and tunnels. With the importance of public bus operations, MCI and IMDA could work with the telcos to focus on these areas first, while the LTA rolls out a staged upgrade that progressively frees up geographical areas for the IMDA and telcos to shut down 3G networks. November is less than three months away, after all.
The clock is ticking
According to Land Transport Guru, the LTA only awarded contracts for the renewal of bus management systems in February and March of this year, despite beginning the tender process in July 2023. I don’t think ST Engineering kept 5800 public bus compatible (and forward-compatible) 5G wireless modems sitting in a warehouse somewhere, waiting for the LTA to award them the contract. And even if they did, time will be needed for the actual installation of new equipment; though considering the urgency of the matter, they could stage it into just replacing modems first, then the rest of the on-board bus equipment in another round.
While it can be argued that the LTA may have been blindsided by the IMDA and telcos’ announcements and thus forced to push forward their plans, they could have made changes to simplify the transition on their part — although it probably must be said that the LTA is not known for being a flexible agency. But then again, we don’t know what changes they made, so perhaps splitting out the tender for “transmitter systems” is probably enough, since everything was still in pre-tender back then?
Then again, there may be precedent. With 3G services shut down in 2021–22 in Malaysia, they may have had to quickly buy 4G modems to allow cross-border buses to operate in Malaysia while staying in contact with control centres in Singapore. Could that explain why the VTL shuttle was run by Causeway Link and Singaporean private operator Transtar, and the post-reopening “temporary shuttle” was also run by Causeway Link? Might this also be the reason why SBS Transit used new government-owned buses, instead of the elderly Scania K230UBs they were using before?
But the LTA had time then, as they could easily stockpile equipment since reopening the border was a matter of not if, but when; they don’t have time now. Whatever it is, the road ahead will be bumpy. If it hasn’t already started, the next three months will see a mad rush to upgrade vehicles. And boy, will there be plenty of upgrading to do.
The dependency chain
We need to take a greater look at what the new fleet management system is supposed to provide, in order to truly appreciate how much is in store.
Apart from schedule compliance and disruption management features provided by the existing Trapeze system, the new fleet management system will supposedly include features to manage charging states of electric buses. This may make its rollout a prerequisite to running electric buses at scale — especially if charger management at bus depots also goes through the new system. It may further delay the rollout of new electric buses, expected for the end of this year, if the fleet management system is not ready in time. Not only that, new depots with charging facilities will also have to be commissioned in time, which may complicate things if they have to be integrated with the fleet management system.
And then there’s of course the hallmark feature of consolidating fare collection workflows into the new fleet management system — fare collection itself a big undertaking that will likely see everyone having to relearn everything. Most notably, drivers will only deal with one management device instead of two, and that means re-training will be needed. Electronics replacement and rewiring may also need to be done; this may be part of the work for refurbishment of buses, and will likely add even more time.
Perhaps with more urgent needs to come through the Bus Connectivity Enhancement Programme, the LTA may have chosen to invest in older vehicles. This may include extensions to the statutory lifespan of older vehicles, with close to 900 buses planned to reach the end of their 17-year statutory lifespan between now and 2026.
This has precedent. Some of the last Volvo B10M buses operated by SBS Transit were included in the rollout of the current fleet management system in 2016-17; SBS Transit used them past their lifespan, until the end of 2018. SMRT Buses also installed the Trapeze system on their O405G Hispano Mk2 buses, for a few months between the commencement of the BCM in September 2016, and their full retirement in early 2017.
The biggest backend change is that fleet management is moving to a new web-based system on the Government Commercial Cloud, instead of whatever is it they’re doing now. More flexible fleet management systems can reduce or even remove the need to build large interchanges and terminals, giving planners more freedom in where and how to run routes.
But in the meantime, with buses taken out of service for upgrading, and drivers and dispatchers taken off service to learn the new systems, this will likely worsen existing driver shortages and perhaps vehicle shortages too. In the longer term, delaying the replacement of buses this time may result in an even greater avalanche of retirements in several years’ time. With the need to roll out electric bus infrastructure too, will the LTA be able to keep up, even with at least five new bus depots under construction?
Is it going to be that bad?
If everything just falls apart, whether in November or in several years’ time, the worst case scenario is that the LTA will be forced to make many hard decisions about the bus network, when they don’t have the ability to operate higher tiers of bus service beyond connecting people to nearby MRT stations.
Some of the hard investments they plan to make into the bus network may make sense here. Better connectivity around newer MRT stations can be done earlier, with temporary infrastructure put in place before permanent infrastructure is built, enabling changes to be made to the network. We see this at Tengah and Tampines North, with semi-temporary interchanges built to enable service in advance of permanent integrated hubs. The same goes for 114 at Buangkok, or 66 and 871 at Beauty World. It can also be done at the Fort Road Carpark across the ECP from Katong Park station, where some heavy vehicle lots can be taken over by bus operators as a temporary terminal with bus routes making their last stop at Katong Park station. There appear to be construction work taking place there, so it may not happen, but I wouldn’t say for sure.
Or they might be able to improvise. Free bus boarding is the standard when the card readers malfunction. The Trapeze system can also function on Android tablets, as demonstrated by Trapeze Group at SITCE 2022; this can be a replacement for non-functional on-board systems, even if it won’t have all the features we need depending on how fast it’s deployed. Hopefully we don’t have to do this.
What might happen is presumably a middle ground between all three scenarios. They may have bought time for a permanent solution to be rolled out more widely. Perhaps they may also bring forward planned changes under the BCEP to reduce pressure on the bus fleet and leave more room for upgrading work. At the very least, they should aim to avoid the pandemic-era suspension of bus services, as infections spread and clusters formed amongst bus drivers. What was also less visible back then was significant increases in waiting times across the board, as drivers had to self-isolate and thus abandon their shifts.
Of course, if they want the rail system to pick up the slack, they need to increase rail capacity. SMRT has increased service levels on CCL and TEL, and have the option to do so on the NSL and EWL; especially now that the Pasir Ris Turnback is formally in use. SBS Transit has not, but that is a choice on the DTL; if Punggol Coast opens by November, they may have that option on the NEL too. Likewise, we are in this position because of the LTA’s inability to rapidly deliver rail projects like the JRL and CRL, so something should be done about that too.
And when people who took the bus one or two stops to the MRT station (like at Kim Tian Road) can no longer do so, the sidewalks and footpaths they must now use will receive a greater public spotlight. Town councils and CDCs can chip in here to improve non-LTA walking paths connecting to MRT stations, instead of demanding or funding their own bus routes.
After all, there are plenty of places where the walking experience through isolated precincts leave much to be desired. And when estates are made more walkable in general, this may prove to be a much more sustainable option in community-building and supporting local businesses too.
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