Supporting Pilots on the Road to Scale

This blog is part of a series on rapid research cycles delivered by the Frontier Tech Hub. These strategically timed research sprints pull from a variety of research methodologies to respond to questions asked across the programme. The first blog in the series conveyed how we answered the question: Where is the frontier of using technology for development, and where do our pilots fit in? This blog, covering Rapid Research Cycle 2, will share what questions we explored, what we learned, how we adapted, and the tools we produced.

In 2020, the Frontier Tech (FT) Hub selected a new cohort of pilot teams and had a big question to answer: How can we best support our pilot teams to test and scale their technology? The FT Hub identified three priority areas where we desired a more rigorous framework to support pilot teams:

1. Utilizing business models
2. Scaling innovative technology
3. Measuring potential for development impact

The team conducted key informant interviews with global experts in entrepreneur capacity development and the pilot teams who had participated in earlier rounds of FT support, conducted a global evidence review, and then led a “learning check” workshop with the FT coaching teams to enhance our offering to pilot teams.

BUSINESS MODELS: Bespoke support needed

We asked, “What tools to develop business models were used for past FT pilots and what tools should be considered from around the globe?”

At this point, the FT Hub did not provide much coaching on business modelling, but we knew innovators needed to develop a business model early on so they have time to adequately test their model. Our interview respondents and global evidence emphasized that there is no one-size-fits-all approach. The best model for a pilot will depend on what type of technology they are building, what their local ecosystem looks like, and a host of other factors.

Instead of incorporating business models into our coaching approach, we created a toolbox of resources, organized according to IDIA’s scaling model below.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to business modelling for pilots, but some tools are more relevant than others at each stage of the journey to scale. Based on IDIA’s scaling model, we have considered which tools are most critical at different stages.

We gathered templates, guides and tools that could support early phase pilots as well as self-assessments and case studies for later stage pilots to develop a more targeted approach.

Now, when innovators are ready to develop a business model for their technology, they know where to start.

JOURNEY TO SCALE: Thinking one step ahead

We asked, “How do we increase the likelihood of scale across FTL pilots?”

Pilots have a lot of fundamental questions to answer in the beginning of their work. Will the technology work? Will people use it? These questions tend to be the focus in early stages, yet one reason many pilots fail is the inability to transition from proof of concept to scale. We developed a toolkit to equip pilot teams as they navigate the journey to scale.

The Frontier Tech Hub selects pilots from the earliest stages of scale to their transition to scale. The Hub also provides scale support to past pilots that are ready to take the next step.

During our interviews, pilot teams expressed the need for support to think ahead to the next stages of their scaling journey. Through an evidence review of the broader literature around scaling, we also found how valuable scaling support can be in the early stages of piloting, to prepare pilots to transition to scale. We identified that there was a role for the FT Hub (whose coaching happens early on in the journey to scale), to play in providing early stage scaling support. We developed a set of scaling tools to weave into our approach both for pilot teams and scale projects.

To visualize the areas where our pilots needed scaling support, we adapted a scalability tool developed by MSI that rates the readiness of a pilot for scale-up based on the technology’s maturity and the state of the surrounding ecosystem needed to support it. We know that there is no silver bullet to scaling support, but after the assessment our innovators could see their overall preparedness for scale as well as specific dimensions where they could direct their focus for programme improvement.

We have found creative ways to use this scaling tool for strategic planning within the FT Hub. The COVID Action Resilient Health Systems team used the tool to identify where each project needed support and then match pilot teams with technical assistance providers.

Using the scalability assessment tool allowed us to see where each grantee landed in terms of ecosystem readiness and technology readiness. This visualization equipped pilot teams to see where they could focus their efforts to prepare for scale.

A clear vision to scale is instrumental for pilots to succeed, so we also developed an interactive tool that we use with pilot teams to help them to develop a “vision for scale.” We believe this tool can help teams to develop, iterate and test their vision in increasing detail as they progress. We are also developing a more robust playbook of sprint activities that pilots can use to test their scaling hypothesis and develop attributes they identify as necessary to scale up.

DEVELOPMENT IMPACT: Emphasize the potential

We asked, “How can FT pilots improve on measuring their potential development impact?”

FTL pilot teams told us that development impact is a key consideration for them — in fact, the potential for development impact was reported to be the driving motivation and primary focus of pilot development. However, respondents also told us that they didn’t have the tools or bandwidth to estimate their development impact in the early stages of ideation, testing, and design.

We concluded that measuring development impact is difficult in early stages, but estimating potential development impact is necessary.

In order to meet these demands, we created a tool by adapting GIF’s Practical Impact approach, the ICAI evaluation of FCDO’s value for money approach, and IDIA’s Insights on Measuring Impact paper.

Our tool, the Potential Impact Estimator (PIE) estimates the number of people whose lives are likely to be improved by an innovation, five years from now. It takes into account factors like the magnitude of that improvement (e.g., shortening a commute versus saving a life) and diversity and inclusion (e.g., helping the most vulnerable). It also adjusts for the likelihood that the innovation will reach scale within five years using the scalability tool explained above.

This image shows some of the inputs required for the Potential Impact Estimator (PIE), a tool that allows innovators to quantitatively forecast the impact of their innovation.

We think the PIE will have a lot of value for innovators, the FT Hub, and FCDO. In contrast to other tools available, PIE does not require complex technical skills to use. By adding more rigour to articulating potential investment outcomes, the tool can help pilot teams make the case for greater investment in their idea.

LOOKING FORWARD: Visualizing the road ahead

With each rapid research cycle, we have sought to quickly and rigorously answer critical questions so that the FT Hub can better support our pilot teams and other partners. We believe the lessons we learned are broadly applicable and hope that readers have ideas about how they might apply these learnings to their own work.