Game Week 3: “Wenger Out” Edition
The past week of matches has been pretty standard. No big surprises here. Man Utd took an easy three points from Southampton as Ibrahimovic scored twice. Aguero and Nolito got a brace each as Man City beat Stoke 4–1. Bojan was the sole name on the score sheet for Stoke in that match.
As a side note I’m not going to bother recommending Aguero or Zlatan from now on, it’s pretty much a given that they’ll score almost every week. Pick them if you want some low risk, low reward options; I’m focusing on differential picks.
Burnley beating Liverpool was one of the only surprising results over the weekend, but then again Liverpool are terrible so maybe it’s not too unexpected. Liverpool dominated the match with 80% possession and 26 shots, but only five of those shots were on target (Coutinho has regressed back to his mean after only being able to put one of his eight shots on target). Contrarily, Burnley only took three shots, in which Vokes and Gray managed to find the back of the net. Swansea vs Hull also ended in a similar fashion, but to a lesser effect. Swansea had 23 shots as opposed to Hull’s 12. But again the underdogs came out on top as Maloney and Hernandez scored, making Hull one of the four teams who have not dropped any points so far against all odds. Are they this year’s Leicester? I’m not sure, but I’m considering putting £5 on them winning the league just in case. Wanyama scored a late header for Spurs to beat Crystal Palace 1–0. Spurs’ defense looked solid as they only allowed Palace to have two shots on target. Chelsea repeated their performance from the opening week as Costa scored a late winner to secure a 2–1 victory over Watford. Capoue and newcomer Batshuayi were the other names on the score sheet. Mirallas, Barry, and McAuley scored in a fairly boring 2–1 fixture between Everton and West Brom. And Leicester vs Arsenal ended in an uneventful 0–0 draw in which only five shots on target were registered.
Sunday saw Sunderland go up against Middlesbrough. van Aanholt continued his attacking form from last season as he scored from defense, but his efforts were undone by a brace from Cristhian Stuani. Michail Antonio scored a late winner for West Ham against Bournemouth in their 1–0 victory. West Ham are still severely missing Payet, but hopefully he’ll be back for their next fixture. The perpetually injured Andy Carroll picked up a knee injury before the match and is out for an unknown amount of time. If anyone placed a bet on Carroll getting injured before Sturridge you can collect your money now. But for those who value their fantasy football performance more than money, here are my Game Week 3 picks.
1. Redmond
Redmond is one of the new additions to the FTSY roster this week. Southampton’s manager Puel has transformed the former midfielder into a clinical striker, and has even likened him to Thierry Henry. Redmond has managed six shots so far this season, five of which came from inside the box. That doesn’t sound too impressive, but when you realize that he went up against the defensive powerhouse of Man Utd last week I think we can give him a break.
Southampton are going up against Sunderland on Saturday. Sunderland have had one of the worst defenses so far this season. They rank poorly in all defensive metrics, their shots faced per game, tackles per game, and interceptions per game are all among the worst in the league. And adding to that, they’re one of only three teams who have not won a single point so far, and they have conceded the second most number of goals. At this pace I’d be surprised if they manage to not get relegated.
With Redmond flying under everyone’s radar in both FTSY and FPL (excluding the redditors over at /r/FantasyPL) he is looking like a great way to get a heads up over your friends. He’s listed as out of position as a midfielder in both games, making him less likely to be picked by the casual crowd who have no idea what they’re doing. He’s already scored once this season and now he’s going up against a defensively poor team so I expect him to add at least a second to his goal tally. With a value of 9 in FTSY he very well could bring you a huge points haul. Due to being listed as a midfielder in FPL, and only having a price of 6.1 I think Redmond is a must have player. He’s a cheap, out of position striker on a top-half-of-the-table team.
2. Costa
Much like Christian “le late goal man” Eriksen in the 14–15 season, Costa is making a habit of scoring late goals to win matches 2–1. Confidence is key for any striker and it seems like Costa has buckets full of it; despite taking only four shots so far this season he’s managed to score twice. He’s clinical in front of goal.
On the other side of things Burnley (Chelsea’s opponent this week) are a strange team defensively. Statistically they have faced the most number of shots out of every team this season, which doesn’t bode well for them. But somehow they’ve only managed to concede a single goal, despite having gone up against Liverpool last week. They have blocked the most number of shots so far, and Heaton has made the most number of saves too. So despite being defensively poor overall, they are good at last ditch defending.
Costa is a good option to pick. He’s more of a differential than the likes of Ibrahimovic and Aguero, despite being a reasonably safe option. His FTSY value is currently sitting at 4, which is fair given his goal scoring potential. If he drops much further I might advise you to avoid him, but for now he’s my safe pick of the week. Of course, you could always play things more risky and pick Hazard, but I’m betting on another episode of “The Late Show with Diego Costa”. In FPL I would advise against picking Costa. If your three strikers don’t include both Aguero and Zlatan by now, you’re falling behind. Hazard is definitely the better Chelsea player to get. His ability to assist and the fact that he’s taking penalties make him worth the extra 0.6. Not to mention Costa is a bonus point repellent, he’s like an anti-Ashley Williams.
3. Giroud
This one is a long shot. Arsenal aren’t doing great at the moment. They’ve only managed to win a single point so far, their attack and defense are struck by injuries (Ramsey, Iwobi, Mertesacker, and Gabriel); and as shown by Aaron Ramsey’s new haircut, they’re not making the signings they want (West Brom are asking for 25m for Evans, and who knows what’s going on with Mustafi? It’s not looking like they’re going to sign anyone to strengthen their attack either). The one string of hope that they’re holding onto is the fact that Ozil and Giroud have been rested until now, and now that they’ve started playing again things should pick up.
Ozil and Giroud are two of the most integral parts of Arsenal’s offense. And even though Giroud might be one of the most frustrating players in the universe, he does always end up with a decent goal tally. He has finished all of the past four seasons with double digit goals. Ozil creates so many chances that, even if Giroud only puts away a tiny proportion of them, he will score quite regularly. Last year Ozil finished with the 19 assists, the most in the league by quite a margin. He beat out the second place Erkisen by six. His average of 4.2 key passes per game also topped the league. He’s essential to Arsenal’s success.
Arsenal’s opponents this week are Watford, who aren’t particularly strong defensively. They face on average 18.5 shots per game and only block 5.5 of those, allowing 13 of them to go through the defense. Arsenal are definitely in a position where they can ask questions of Watford’s keeper, Heurelho Gomes. Gomes is an inconsistent keeper, he can be a great shot stopper at times but he’s also capable to making blunders.
Giroud is a risky pick this week. He’s just coming back from an extended break due to his involvement in Euro 2016, but Arsenal need something to happen. With only a loss and a draw so far this season, Arsenal’s fickle fans are already calling for Wenger’s head. This happens every season anyway so it’s not really noteworthy, I just wanted the opportunity to make fun of Arsenal and their silly fans. Giroud’s currently sitting at a value of 7 in FTSY, so he really is a high risk, high reward pick. He could come out of the gates running, or he could flop. Take a chance, you know you want to. In the same vein as Costa, don’t bother with him in FPL. You want Aguero and Zlatan as your premium strikers in your front three and it’d be better to find the extra 0.5 somewhere to bring in Ozil if you insist on getting Arsenal coverage.
So there you go. I’ve played things less safe this week. Go with Giroud and Redmond if you want to risk things and try to get a leg up on your competition, but stay with the likes of Costa, Aguero, and Ibrahimovic if you want to play it safe. As always, I take no responsibility my advice doesn’t come to fruition, but I take all credit if it does.
