5 Sleepers and Busts in the 2021 NBA Draft
Each year in the NBA draft, prospects are hyped up to be the next generation of superstars. However, each year, some of the top picks fail to live up to expectations, and others that were overlooked rise the ranks of NBA stardom.
Sleeper 1: Tre Mann, G, Florida
Tre Mann is viewed as a mid-late first round prospect by most scouts. While his shooting is impressive (40.2% from three on 4.7 attempts), scouts question his role as a playmaker and his ability to physically compete with next level competition. However, elite shooters with range like Mann often struggle physically against NBA defenders, but still manage to play at All-star levels, which I believe Mann is plenty capable of doing. Another point worth adding is that Mann just finished his Sophomore season at Florida, in which his shooting splits jumped from 35.6/27.5/65.5 to an incredible 45.9/40.2/83.1. Tre Mann is one of the more NBA ready prospects in this class, with an elite skillset, and he’s still far from a finished product.
Bust 1: Keon Johnson, G, Tennessee
Keon Johnson is ranked as high as 5th on some draft boards, and is 6th or 7th on most NBA analysts’ lists, mostly due to his incredible athleticism and potential. This is understandable. Johnson set a combine record with a 48 inch max vertical leap, and led the combine with his 41.5 inch standing vert. However, athleticism is quite possibly the most overrated trait in the NBA. Players that were drafted mostly off of their incredible vertical leaps (Hamidou Diallo, Kay Felder, Shane Larkin, Dennis Smith Jr, and many other names you’ve forgotten) don’t tend to succeed unless they develop new skills that they were not drafted with. Sadly, this is also the case with Keon. Keon is a guard that scores almost all his points in or around the paint, and has no effective outside shot. He also doesn’t show any signs of developing one (27.1% from three and 70.3% from the line). As well as his struggle with a lack of scoring, he isn’t a particularly good playmaker, and is inconsistent at best defensively. It’s been proven time and time again. Drafting a player in the early lotto completely off of potential almost never works.
Sleeper 2: Trey Murphy III, G, Virginia
It seems that the biggest knock on Murphy is that he doesn’t have star potential. I don’t see the issue with that. Murphy is projected to be a late first rounder or early second rounder, far after all of the players with “star potential” are gone. He would be a much better selection for a team already in the playoff race. His shot is lethal, especially in catch and shoot scenarios, and with his stifling length (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan) and athleticism allow him to defend the 1–4 with ease. He isn’t a great passer, but he should play as a 3 and D wing, always on the court with a primary playmaker, negating the problem. The only two real issues with Murphy are that he’s already 21 and that he doesn’t really create his own shot, but he knows his roll as a spot up shooter, and is incredible at it (he shot 50/43/93 at Virginia despite taking mostly threes). Another plus, the points he scored in each game were almost directly correlated to how many shots he got, meaning he rarely had off nights, and just needed to be incorporated in Virginia’s offense better.
Bust 2: Isaiah Jackson, FC, Kentucky
This is a risky pick, as Jackson is only expected to be a mid first round pick. However, I don’t think he should be taken until at least the mid second round. He currently ranks 34th on my board, but I’ve only scouted 34 players. Jackson is a pretty good rim protector, slightly limited by his size, but he’s quite the shot blocker and rebounder. He’s strong and athletic, but that’s the entire list of pros. He has almost no offensive game, even as a lob catcher or post threat, cannot handle the ball, shoot anything deeper than a layup, or make anything above the most basic passes. Long story short, he blocks shots and rebounds pretty well, but not at an elite level, and can really barely do anything else.
Sleeper 3: Jared Butler, G, Baylor
Butler was recently flagged for health concerns, but his draft stock has been way too low even before that. Butler was named the Most Outstanding Player of March Madness, and was a First-team All American. Butler’s only weakness is a lack of playmaking, but he fit phenomenally alongside Davion Mitchell, and settled into a role as a secondary ball handler and playmaker. At 6'3" he’s a little small to be a shooting guard, but plenty of smaller guards are playing a similar style incredibly effectively (Donovan Mitchell, CJ McCollum). In fact, Butler would only be about an inch and a half under the average height for a shooting guard, which is hardly enough to cause any issue.
Bust 3: Alperen Sengun, FC, Besiktas
Sengun is a strange prospect. He’s still just 18 years old, and will turn 19 just days before the draft. He’s quite good at what he does, but a 6'9" inside scorer just isn’t going to be effective at the NBA level. His jumper is nowhere near an NBA level for the forward position he’ll need to play, but he isn’t athletic enough for it anyways, meaning he’ll be a 6'9" small ball big who can’t shoot. Thats far from ideal in the modern NBA, and will hold him back significantly.
Sleeper 4: Scottie Lewis, G, Florida
Lewis is going under the radar, and for good reason. He started just 9 games at Florida last year, and didn’t have much influence on the game when he got in. However, he may have punched his ticket to the NBA with an incredible combine showing, ranking in the top 10 in all athletic measurements. Unlike plenty of other freakishly athletic prospects, Lewis has a basic skillset to offer. He’s a high quality defender, and shows signs of being a quality playmaker, even though he didn’t run the offense much at Florida. His most overlooked trait is his jumper. He has an incredibly fluid form, and in drills he hits an incredible amount of shots. He seems to have confidence issues with it, but those could easily be coached out of him. Lewis could be a diamond in the rough to snag in the mid second round.
Bust 4: Scottie Barnes, F, Florida State
Barnes is what they call a Jack of all trades, but a master of none. His size, length, and discipline make him a stifling defender, but he get out of position and off balance frequently, and could easily struggle against NBA talent. His passing and ball handling could make him a solid secondary playmaker, but he’s not elite at either. His jumper is horrendous, but most importantly, he isn’t elite at any one thing. His defense is close to a defining trait, but really he’s going to be taken top 10 due to his versatility.
Sleeper 5: Jalen Johnson, F, Duke
Jalen Johnson is a bit of a question mark as a prospect. Most scouts shy away from putting him very high or low on their boards due to the fact that he only played 13 games at Duke before forgoing the season to prepare for the draft. However, there’s a lot to like about Johnson. His only real issue at Duke was his free throw shooting, but he only went to the line 38 times there, and his shooting overall was pretty solid (44.4% from three). Nobody can deny his superstar potential, and he looks like a top ten prospect if his showing at Duke wasn’t a fluke. The team that picks up Johnson in the late lottery might have landed their franchise player.
Bust 5: Jalen Green, G, G League Unite
The hottest take for last. Green is projected to be a top four pick, and some even go as far as to say he should be selected first overall. That would be a drastic mistake. Jalen Green is a pure scorer with sky high potential, but not much of a shot, poor defense, and far from the level of playmaking you’d want from your primary or secondary ball handler. Green scores effectively when driving to the basket, but he also jacks up shots from the outside, and gets extreme tunnel vision. It seems as though he decides whether or not he’s going to shoot as soon as he passes half court. He consistently chooses to shoot incredibly contested and difficult shots over easy kick outs, constantly putting his stat sheet over the need to win. Green’s 17.9 points seems impressive, but when related to his 13.6 FGA, it would about average at the NBA level, and he most definitely would not be as effective going against NBA defenders.
