Automated vehicles affecting real estate prices
First, I’d like to recommend this article on 73 ways autonomous vehicles will change our lives. Although I’m not usually a fan of “experts” just throwing around blind predictions without much emphasis on causation aka how/why should we get there…this one was a really original/creative/eye-opening read. Even though 10 million jobs might be lost in America alone the article shows that there are going to be enough jobs created by the new businesses enacted by all transport becoming autonomous. Another argument on why we will have jobs (for the foreseeable future at least, before the singularity) if we can solve the skill mismatch problem by educating high school students on the future. But about that some other time. Anyhow…
In the past, if you bought real estate, you could be certain of most cases whether an apartment in that particular location would cost more after the next economic crash. For example, if you had bought a place in the old town in 2007 aka right before the crash then it’d be considered a failure — by 2010 the price would have been plummeted. However in the long term, you can be sure that when the next economic boom would arrive (in 2018) you could sell it with a profit as old town is one of those locations where they cannot build anything new. Because rarely is the old town area expanded so the apartments are only being re-built and renovated. You could consider similar locations being ones with a good sea view as the beach is another place where the city allows to have new apartment buildings and then there are of course the ‘skyscrapers’ that allows you to have a view of the whole city. Other such un-expandable regions are already dependent on the city.
So whatever happens in between you can rest easy knowing that in time the price will probably bounce back…until now. The ways people are going from one place to another, mostly home to work, has always affected real estate prices. Now there is a massive shift happening in commonplace transport that doesn’t require anymore that we allocate our precious time — hour per day, in average. The utilisation rate of a vehicle will rise from current 5% up to 50% in average, meaning that one car will be used 50% per 24h, in average. Buses will be used less as well as they won’t be that much cheaper from a car/taxi, so it’s not as necessary to live near bus stops/stations. As working from home and comfortably (compared to current vehicle interior) in a car becomes more frequent we won’t care that much about living near our workplace nor the city centre. The only thing missing perhaps are some refreshing drinks and a coffee machine, but I’m sure future Teslas (firstly) will have them as riding through a Starbucks will require time. Food won’t be that essential, though.
Being in VR while riding is gonna be awesome — you can either Skype there if you prefer privacy from your fellow traveler e.g. your children or use the screen. Especially as being at a weekly meeting for the whole 3 hours, for example, won’t be necessary, because managers don’t deem that necessary…you can just check into meeting from a car for your section and check out. Do your 20min weekly report and check out of the meeting — people can see your report later and reply with their own question to which you answer with another video, again cut into sections reply per reply.
Thus, creating suburbanisation as people like to have houses, gardens and everything including that lifestyle, such as animals. With growing average temperature (climate change) having a small garden is going to be an increasing trend. Benefitted by shrinking necessity for grocery stores, pharmacies and even cinemas that has less people going there by the year — less centralisation.
Definitely having futuristic public transport between cities (HyperLoop) between cities, as cars will rarely change cities where they operate, will play a role. I think San Francisco and other metropolises where having futuristic transport would help promote it in order for it to be financed in other places…will help raise prices. If you can live somewhere with an interesting way to move then you have one more thing to talk about and word of mouth is the most efficient way of promotion. Once the city is promoted thanks to its transport then people will want to live there. I can already imagine social media captions saying “First Hyperloop ride! 30 minutes from SF to LA, super comfy!” …inviting people to come both visit and perhaps live there. The population of metropolitan being 10 million is considered large, but actually it is nothing. Once you wouldn’t mind wasting time on travelling 1–2 hours of your day…why not simply live in the 30km radius from the city centre — also quite a rarity today. Also, as people will merge their apartment and country home into one I believe that going to your summerhouse in the weekends will happen more seldom. You would rather either spend time at home or take a weekend trip to another country as it’ll become easier/cheaper and you’ll have money left over from selling the country home.
Although the case is opened with some ideas, I have certainly not made my case of what specifically will come true as I believe there is some essential part missing regarding the automated transport experience. Similarly to how internet was that missing piece that many sci-fi writers did not expect and thus did not include in the worlds they created. Surely there are additional arguments as to which areas’ prices will be rising and why so probably the post shall be updated every now and then.
