The “multiphase” way to WIN BIG with infrastructure, even if Congress wimps out
Why just patch up yesterday when we can build tomorrow at the same time … through “multiphase” thinking? All at an affordable price? And while launching history’s biggest economic boom?
Infrastructure. Today it should be more than a fix-up project … more, even, than a job creator or economic stimulant. We need to think bigger, much bigger; and better, much better.
Why do less than what’s needed to fix today’s problems and assure our future?
Through multiphase thinking we can refurbish existing systems while simultaneously delivering sustainability and future-appropriate design.
Let’s consider this unprecedented opportunity in four steps: first, review the present plans; second, look at challenges to these plans; third, define “infrastructure” in broad terms appropriate for today; and fourth, think how we might implement a program that’s big and bold enough, through multiphase thinking.
I. THE PRESENT INFRASTRUCTURE PLANS
In the United States, President-elect Donald Trump’s economic plan, which has not yet been fully defined, calls for $1 trillion in infrastructure spending over the next 10 years. In public statements, Trump has talked about upgrading U.S. roads, bridges, hospitals and schools.
Bernie Sanders, Senator for Vermont, has also put forward a $1 trillion plan, the Rebuild America Act, to be re-introduced in the U.S. Senate in January. Designed to work at twice the speed of Trump’s plan, five years, it calls for modernizing America’s roads, bridges, water systems, rail systems, airports, levees and dams.
A key aim is to create at least 13 million good-paying jobs while making America safer and more productive.
II. CHALLENGES TO CURRENT PLANS
Sanders’ plan seems more beneficial for the majority of citizens and less subject to corporate abuse than Trump’s, but may have much less chance of adoption.
Trump’s plan calls for funding through public-private partnerships and contractor tax incentives. These might work well if structured to avoid the pitfalls of crony capitalism: favoritism, tax avoidance, skewed priorities, and misleading promises that result in little new employment.
Though projecting a positive, bullish intent, Trump’s plan has been called a corporate giveaway that delivers only about $200 million in actual stimulus while allowing companies to reap big rewards with little risk.
For example, according to critics, companies can stash profits overseas to pay a fraction of what they might otherwise owe in federal taxes, and then invest in infrastructure projects in exchange for additional tax breaks.
Criticism of Sanders’ plan is also sure to materialize, and a period of constructive contention may be imminent.
Perhaps a positive, abuse-proof blend of the Trump and Sanders plans will emerge from Congress. With enough public pressure and stakeholder lobbying, this might happen.
If it does, good, but we can do better. We can set our sights higher, much higher.
If no decent plan does emerge from Congress, all is not lost. We can still set our sights very high and act independently, beyond the help or control of federal legislation. As individuals, communities, businesses, or non-governmental organizations, we can participate in an emerging infrastructure movement that leverages the internet, mobilizes people everywhere, and transforms the planet.
The key is to see the challenge clearly enough, set our sights high enough, and employ future-appropriate multiphase thinking.
III. DEFINING “INFRASTRUCTURE” MORE BROADLY
The Cambridge Dictionary defines infrastructure as “the basic structure of an organization or system which is necessary for its operation, esp. public water, energy, and systems for communication and transport.”
Note the key words “necessary for operation.” We’re talking about all the shared things we can’t live without or can’t maintain society without. These resources and systems fall into three categories:
- Conventional infrastructure. This includes transportation; water and waterworks; communication systems; energy and power delivery; and maintaining venues for essential shared services such as education and health care. Defense infrastructure is a part of traditional infrastructure mix too.
- Natural infrastructure. Good air is of course essential; without it, we’re goners in less than five minutes. Also vital are the ecosystems that provide our food, fresh water, and ambient living conditions. Now, thanks to our heavy footprint, Mother Nature is starting to have trouble supplying our needs. So a sound infrastructure plan must now include monitoring and nurturing the neglected systems we have taken for granted.
- Futuristic infrastructure. These are systems that already exist and are proliferating rapidly, but seldom make it into public policy discussions. They are becoming more and more essential for participating in and running everything at local, national, and global levels. They are mostly offshoots of communication and computer infrastructure, ranging from artificial intelligence to space-based technology.
IV. BUILDING BIG & BOLD ENOUGH, THE MULTIPHASE WAY
There’s a temptation to go slow. To do “first things first.” To fix the potholes and pipes and then, later, maybe get around to the futuristic stuff, like anything green, digital, or space-oriented.
Some projects do, of course, demand immediate attention.
We need to fix what’s hurting or endangering people NOW.
But there’s peril in fixing yesterday’s systems and thinking that’s enough. If we stop when the old pipes or roads are back to normal, tomorrow’s systems don’t get built and our natural infrastructure languishes. As a result we fail to meet the big challenge of our time, which is preserving the planet and taking humanity to the next level.
Fortunately we don’t have to choose between fixing the conventional infrastructure and building the new futuristic infrastructure; or between either of those and protecting our natural infrastructure.
With creativity and good planning, we can do more than one thing at a time, and we can do it without breaking the bank. The key is overlap and integration — multiphase thinking.
Multiphase infrastructure projects
For most upgrades or replacements of conventional infrastructure, we can incorporate environmental and futuristic features without undue cost or difficulty. In fact, ambitious projects needn’t cost more and could cost less.
Thanks to the economies of multiphase planning, multiple priorities, individually expensive, may be realized simultaneously. And other social benefits may also blossom.
For example:
Instead of just refurbishing the streets and parking spaces in our cities, refurbish them with self-driving vehicles and green features in mind. Don’t overbuild highways and streets. When shared, self-driving vehicles will require much less road space and almost no parking space. For the same investment, some streets could be re-built as pedestrian malls, urban-agriculture gardens, or cultural venues. The air would be fresher and less carbon would be released.
Another example:
Instead of expanding industrial farming, with its heavy environmental footprint, promote more urban agriculture for a greater supply of fresh, nutritious local food; and freshen the air at the same time.
Another example:
Most towns and cities have lots of places where plants can grow. Good, but why not multiply the benefit by making those plants edible? In Todmorden, England, Pam Warhurst and her neighbors did just that, and transformed the community socially as well as economically. See her TED Talk on how they pulled it off:
Another example:
Go ahead and create millions of jobs for those who like manual work, but do it with emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, in mind. Realize that most of today’s jobs are candidates for automation; and simultaneously experiment with new ways of engaging and compensating people. For example, since millions already do “human” tasks such as parenting, eldercare, and community service for no pay, why not try paying some of them for it? We might learn a lot from a few test projects. Maybe the hot new “occupation” of the future is nurturing — of other people and the environment. See this video on one attempt:
Another example:
Instead of just rebuilding flood water control systems, also plant greenery that utilizes some of that unwanted water. Spend less overall for better flood control, while adding beauty and fresher air.
Another example:
When replacing anything old or building anything brand-new, forget conventional practices and design. Go 100% sustainable and forward-looking from the get-go. Apple’s new solar-powered headquarters is a model of sustainability:
Another example:
Instead of just beefing up infrastructure to fight forest fires, which are on the increase thanks to climate change, come at the problem from a new, multiphase point of view. Look for a way to manage fires along with other environmental problems. A Berkeley, California, startup (All Power Labs) has in fact done this. Their multiphase solution could avert the worst impact of fires through a process that sequesters carbon while turning biomass into usable electricity and heat. The solution amounts to positive, preemptive burning (savings billions in cleanup costs) while reducing atmospheric carbon, generating clean energy, and keeping residents safer.
But upgrading conventional infrastructure, even while pursuing green and future-facing goals, may not be enough. A MAJOR project or so may be required. To get our juices flowing, we need oceans to cross and mountains to climb.
What GREAT, GRAND projects should we consider?
What bold and beautiful new things we might create NOW — while fixing traditional infrastructure as part of the mix?
Suitable projects should match and scale and pizzazz of past projects like Hoover Dam, the coast-to-coast rail and highway systems, electrification of the nation, going to the moon, and connecting people through the Internet.
Here are five candidates:
1.Establish the Universal Internet. Only about 40% of the world is now connected. Finish the project. Connect everyone, even the poorest and least documented in the U.S., Africa, everywhere. And do it in a way that bonds, educates, empowers, and motivates all of humanity while controlling those who would do harm.
2. Save the planet by beating the Paris climate-change goals. Do it by a rapid shift to renewables, in a way that benefits people of all ages and walks of life; and compensates potential losers, like coal and oil industry workers.
3. Implement AI as a public utility. Intelligent control is fast being added to industrial processes, consumer devices, and public infrastructure such as air and traffic control systems. Individual citizens need to know more about it and have easy access to its power. Let’s make sure artificial intelligence, including human intelligence augmentation, is an affordable, easy-to-use resource available to everyone.
4. Replace money with super-money. Implement a totally electronic system of value exchange, based on the “blockchain” technology of Bitcoin. This would happen in two steps: first, make international currency exchange instantaneous (yen to dollars, pesos to pounds); and second, skip the old currencies and use the blockchain bits only. This would speed everything up, allow people to receive compensation for more things, streamline society in all dimensions. Once implemented and mature, a super-money system could prevent currency crises such as the current ones in India and Venezuela. It could also conjoin informal and formal economies, and support alternatives to cumbersome, inequitable taxation.
5. Establish a space colony. It could be a settlement on the moon or Mars, or an orbital space community. Why should this be a priority? To save earth and make it thrive, we may need to go beyond it. We are explorers and trail-blazers. There’s nothing like a new frontier to inspire us and bring out our best. Developers, many of them children, are at work on this now, as illustrated by the following National Geographic post:
(Which of the above projects would you vote for, or what others would you suggest? Please share your thoughts in Responses.)
How to get it done
All components of infrastructure may be impacted by anyone at these six levels:
- International
- National
- State or regional
- Community (city, town)
- Interest group (work, school, association, etc.)
- Individual and family
National politics can strongly influence infrastructure policy, but need not dominate when the winning legislation is off-base. There are rich options for action at the other five levels.
For example:
At the international level, a majority of nations can hold firm in protecting our natural infrastructure even if the United States withdraws from the Paris climate agreement. A key player is China, seeking to dominate the green technology market and tired of their gross levels of air pollution.
Another example:
In the United States and globally, well-organized cities and states can prevail over federal infrastructure action or inaction. Along with others, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is taking independent action. He is mobilizing mayors around the world to fight climate change regardless of national policy, pointing out that more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions are produced by cities.
Another example:
At the personal and family level, most of us have lots of infrastructure under our direct control. How good is your drinking water and waste disposal? How fuel-efficient is your car, how fast your internet access? Thinking about solar? Infrastructure upgrades are possibly at many points during one’s life. And daily, one may impact nearby public infrastructure in small ways, such as reporting a pothole on the way to work. (There’s even an app for that, Spothole.)
No good action is too small to matter. Since we’re all connected, to act locally is to act globally
Can we afford it?
A big, bold infrastructure initiative won’t be cheap. Cost-benefit estimates are speculative and controversial, but let’s look at it this way.
An expensive program that works will be cheaper than the alternative: doing nothing or doing too little. Failing to build a bridge, or building an inadequate one, won’t bridge the chasm of disaster.
If we want to survive and thrive, we have no choice but to:
- Make conventional infrastructure reasonably available to everyone, everything from clean water to reliable power. If we don’t, we’ll be courting discord ranging from perpetual protests to endless ISIS. Very expensive, ultimately unaffordable.
- Protect the natural infrastructure that makes everything possible. We have no choice but to halt catastrophic climate change and deal with environmental factors of many types. That includes maintaining the health of even tiny components, such as the threatened honey-bee system that makes our trees and plants fruitful.
If too much goes wrong, environmentally of socially, all bets will be off. No amount of money will turn things around. If we decide we can’t afford necessary infrastructure, we’re deciding we can’t afford a future.
It may also be necessary to build the futuristic stuff. Doing so may be the cheapest, best way to revive our spirits. That’s crucial. Without a future to believe in (to quote Bernie Sanders), all bets are off.
We can do it! If we don’t, it won’t be for lack of money, which can be redirected, or even lack of creativity, which abounds, or lack of knowledge, which can be supplied. It will be for lack of will and goodwill.
To help all this happen, do we need an “interactive infrastructure initiative”?
It would be a glorified expansion of this article: a website allowing participants to post, share, organize, make connection, and promote infrastructure projects of all types at all levels.
It would include:
- Brief write-ups of infrastructure-promoting organizations.
- Member directory, including the skills and resources offered.
- Lists of issues, project plans, and entrepreneurial opportunities.
- Lists of infrastructure-related organizations, from the United Nations to local planning boards and ad-hoc action groups.
- News of progress.
- Calendar of events ranging from public gatherings and street fairs to planning parties and pilot project openings.
(Please share your thoughts about this, in Responses. And if there are projects, resources, or solutions you’d like to include, please let us know.)
This an update of an earlier version of this article.
For related trends and opportunities, see this overview: Future Alerts: TOP TRENDS / early access.
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