Astrobiologists on cusp of discovering intelligent technologically-advanced civilization…on Earth
Is there intelligent life in the universe? GIF. Full 3-minute animation.
Orbiting a star 39 light years from Earth is a planet called LHS 1140b. It lies in the habitable zone of a solar system — where liquid water can exist.
If this were not exciting enough, the scientists analysing it say there is a good chance it has an atmosphere of some sort. They conclude “because LHS1140 is nearby, telescopes currently under construction might be able to search for specific atmospheric gases in the future [!!].”
The exclamation marks are neither in the original paper nor some HTML5 copying error. They are mine.
NASA’s exoplanet archive lists 3475 “confirmed planets” beyond our solar system as of 13 April 2017. And 581 multi-planet systems, the most recent discovery brought in a haul of seven planets orbiting Trappist-1, a star coincidentally 39 light years away.
The mind races. If we can analyse the atmosphere and other parts of a planetary life support system what would indicate signs of life? And what would indicate intelligent technologically-advanced civilizations?
Any self-respecting intelligent civilization would have found a way of ensuring a sort of homeostasis of its planet’s biosphere before technology ran amok and the system span out of control. Without this obvious step a proto-intelligent civilisation wouldn’t be around long enough for other extraterrestrials to notice, astrobiologist David Grinspoon notes in his recent book, Earth in Human Hands.
Ouch. This definition almost rules out H. Sapiens.
Almost. Are astrobiologists on the cusp of discovering an intelligent technologically advanced civilization…on Earth.
Recently, we teamed up with a Stockholm collective of filmmakers and animators Brikk to produce a kind of “state of the planet” animation. We’d planned it before the March for Science was on our horizon but when that hove into view it made sense to connect the idea with growing challenges to scientific integrity. After brainstorming ideas, we felt the standard narrative about environmental destruction was not the full story. Neither did we accept the counter narrative that the world is getting better and technology will solve everything. Somewhere in the middle is where the world is at, but on the middle road lies much drama.
The main hook for the animation is the search for intelligent life in the universe.
Back in 1961, Frank Drake, an American astronomer proposed an equation to ascertain the probability of finding advanced civilisations in the universe. An important part of the equation is the length of time such a civilization exists.
H. sapiens is now at this critical stage. We wanted to play with this idea.
Back in March, Future Earth’s hub director Josh Tewkesbury gave a powerful talk on the state of the planet in 2017 at the Future Earth annual science and engagement committees meeting in Montreal. 2016 was a particularly dramatic year. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere crossed 400 parts per million. No one born today will ever see carbon dioxide levels lower than this.
Carbon dioxide remained around 280ppm throughout the last 11,7000 years helping ensure a relatively stable global climate. This relative stability has allowed agriculture and civilization to flourish. In this time, global temperatures fluctuated no more than plus or minus one degree Celsius.
Now Earth has reached 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and temperatures are rising fast. The warmest years on record in ascending order are 2014, 2015 and 2016. In the film, we say that climate change is no longer a theory. Here we use the popular definition of a theory as an idea or inkling with perhaps little supporting evidence rather than the scientific definition because after all the film is aimed at a more mainstream audience.
Beyond climate change, the oceans are heating up, ocean acidification is a real threat, and biodiversity loss is at mass extinction rates. This is a rare event in Earth’s history. The last mass extinction was 66 million years back when an asteroid struck Earth killing off the non-avian dinosaurs. Indeed, the last time carbon dioxide levels changed as dramatically as today was around this time too.
Mmm. This really should alarm more people than it seems to.
And we are depleting fish stocks at unsustainable rates. Fish are an important source of protein for about three billion people. The best available evidence is that fishing grounds can be used sustainably but many are being fished to capacity or beyond. This needs to change.
Right now — in the last 60 years — the rate of change of the Earth system has been accelerating. For all our recorded history, the rate of change of the Earth system has been around zero. The rate of change cannot keep accelerating without disastrous consequences for civilization. We are simply not equipped to deal with large-scale global climatic disruption. Yet this is the direction the actions of industrialized societies will take us. But it does not have to be so, and it is not all bad.
At the same time, the world’s poorest people are steadily moving out of extreme poverty, diseases are being eradicated and conflict is reducing. Incredibly, the ozone hole is beginning to stabilize. In the last three years, the growth in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels appears to has stalled, to the surprise of scientists measuring these things. And the world has reached peak child. The average number of children born per fertile woman is now 2.5 — globally. Population continues to rise because we all live much longer and in some places birth rates are still high. But this will stabilise. These are positive trajectories for the planet. We have made this progress because we are informed. Because we invest in science. Because we build knowledge and innovate. Science made America great. And other countries too. In many ways the world is on a path to genuine planetary intelligence.
We are not there yet, but the best available evidence suggests we need to be within the next few decades or face disaster. It also shows we can succeed. Are we are about to find intelligent life in the universe? For the sake of our children, I hope so.
Check out this slidedeck on the state of the planet 2017.
