Our farming practices are harming the planet

The pressure on farmers to increase the quantity of plants produced from existing farming areas (yield) is immense — it is also unsustainable. The demand for increased yield continues to rise, just as concurrently the chemical tools (e.g. pesticides) that farmers rely on to produce current yields are being restricted and climate change related extreme weather events create further production uncertainty. These pressures leave traditional farmers ill-equipped to meet the food requirements of the future, particularly as our global population is set to increase by 2.1 billion (21%) by 2050. A new approach to food production is needed, alongside significant shifts in the public’s acceptance of alternative crop and protein sources.

Global food demand is increasing exponentially faster than the population growth rate. As incomes rise across the world relative to the cost of food, more nutrient-dense meats are demanded. This phenomenon is referred to as Bennett’s Law.

Transformative innovation is required at all levels and economies; disparity in food consumption exists across our global population with the majority under-nourished while a minority eat excessive quantities of protein. This significantly distorts our agricultural requirements in specific ways:

• Lower-income countries need to double their food production to meet basic healthy food consumption requirements. Countries with per-capita income below USD 10 per day produce approximately 2,000–3,000 kcal a day per person. Of this production, approximately 20% is used to feed livestock and about 30% is wasted in the supply chain, leaving 1100–1500 kcal a day per person. Healthy adults need between 2,000kcal and 2,500kcal per day.
• In higher-income countries, appetites for meat are driving an exponential increase in food production. They produce four times as many crops as lower-income countries (between 8,000 and 9,000 kcal per day per person). Approximately ⅔ of this increase is used to feed livestock.

Current farming practices are not meeting the necessary increases in yields. In fact, crops such as maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, which account for two-thirds of global agricultural calories, need to double their rate of yield increases to meet expected food demand requirements. The combination of more mouths to feed and an increasing per capita demand for meat are responsible for an estimated 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Current farming practices are predicted to provide approximately half of the required increase in crop production (Tilman et al. 2011).

The reality is likely to be much worse than this as this yield deficit takes into account social and technical factors and does not account for the high probability that extreme weather events and climate change will have increasingly negative effects on food production. These factors will compound those described by Bennet’s Law and our burgeoning global population.

Microgreens growing under LED lighting systems inside a vertical farm in London.

A combination of approaches will be required to address this challenge:

1. Alternative sources of protein are required, such as insects and algae, which can be produced using 80% less crop material.
2. Alternative crop production technologies will be required, including vertical and indoor farming technologies.
3. New crop breeds and varieties are required, which can better meet the yield and nutritional requirements of our growing population.

Adoption of these challenges requires step-change perceptions in food sources and production methodologies.

The Future Farmer blog will investigate these challenges and explore ways to solve them. You can find out more about the Future Farming Hub here.