Jail or Hospital?
How Ideology Can Drive Our Future
Don was on the verge of committing murder, suicide, or both. In early January, he had turned forty years old; “forty years old in the year 2040”, he had mused to himself. As the recipient of modern healthcare and nutrition, and enough leisure time to work on staying fit, Don was in perfect physical health. Still, it was his mental health that had started to become an issue.
Within just a few days, Don had been hit with several pieces of unwelcome news and was reeling from his sudden misfortune. The local elementary school where he worked, would be closing due to decreased enrollment. He also found one of the benefactors for his artwork had died, and the estate would not be continuing sponsorship. Although losing two sources of income was troubling, at least the monthly universal basic income (UBI) would allow him to make the monthly bills. While those events certainly added stress, what had started the decline into his current mental state was discovering that his wife may be preparing to leave him. He descended into darkness never before experienced, which led him to search for some answers in the recesses of the virtual world.
Don was not the only one who noticed his sudden mood changes. His wife noticed and began communicating with her friends, her concern for him, and herself. Once, they argued over something trivial, and she linked in a friend through her augmented reality (AR) contact lens. The friend became alarmed at Don’s anger and rage as he broke some dishes in frustration. The friend flagged the recording in her archive as a possible criminal act of assault. To understand what was happening, his wife began searching for information and even consulted a few counselors. His co-workers noticed and began communicating their concerns.
The national health service was seeing the signs too. Don had joined the voluntary monitoring program that had provided a small monthly stipend, bonuses for health improvement, and rewarded competition against a peer group for winning fitness challenges. Don had been in the top ten percent. Still, over the last month, the monitoring points in his clothing and environment had detected increased insomnia, cessation of exercise, erratic vital signs, and an increase in stress-related chemicals in his sweat and urine. Additionally, he was drinking more alcohol and eating less nutritious food. It was clear his physical state had changed, his mental state degraded, and people were watching.
Our Future Under the Fisheye Lens
There is a sizeable agreement that the future contains increased surveillance of our online and physical world activity. As more data becomes available through the adoption of wearable tech and internet-connected devices, organizations will have access to intimate details about our health, moods, and assess potential actions. Police forces are already using social media surveillance and IoT devices at the local level to look for information on recent crimes. Predictive analytics programs are estimating where crimes may take place, which allows for increased patrols in those areas. Medical professionals can remotely monitor the conditions of patients, including insulin levels, heart function, and primary vital signs, and initiate interventions when the patient’s life appears threatened. However, this increased surveillance can take one of two directions depending on the over-arching emphasis our society places on we use this information.
Crime Prevention Emphasis
The ‘law and order’ ideology most often appears during election season when a candidate assures the public they will be safer if they are elected when they can implement more significant law enforcement measures. This ideology now includes pre-emptive action, aided by AI and social media surveillance, to prevent potential criminal acts from occurring.
Don Is Noticed, By The Police
Sgt. Beliva checked the overnight report produced by the AI predictive analysis program. The system identified a possible homicide or domestic assault. Sgt. Beliva tasked the AI to begin tracking and issuing instant reports of suspected harmful or illegal activity; within minutes, the AI had access to all of Don’s public and private data.
Later that afternoon, Don found himself engaged in another heated discussion with his wife; he blurted out, “I get so mad at you, sometimes I wish you were dead.” Beliva was alerted immediately by the AI and dispatched a nearby patrol car to Don’s home. With the threat assessment indicating a potential immediate homicide, the officers forced their way into the house. They placed Don in custody while they safely escorted his wife from their home. On the way to the scene, Beliva reviewed the evidence as the car drove into the quiet suburb. It was evident that Don was dangerous and needed arresting on intent to commit murder. Once Beliva arrived at the scene, Don was placed under arrest and taken to the station for processing. Beliva predicted an open and shut case at trial, followed by Don spending three to five years in a prison, where he could reflect on his ill intentions and decide for himself if being such a societal deviant was worth it. The AI forwarded the case file to the prosecutors.
Public Health Emphasis
Another emphasis our governmental organizations can use to tackle issues as presented in this story is to look at it from a public health view. These solutions emanate from a body of knowledge of how to treat personal issues that may be caused by psychological, physiological, or even societal conditions outside the control of the individual. The emphasis on epidemiology in healthcare can help to mobilize assets in areas that are being hit by issues that law enforcement only views as criminal actions, but are spurred on by social causes. We are seeing this now with the opioid epidemic in America; the widespread use of opioids is most likely symptomatic of a socio-economic crisis rather than a crime epidemic. To use this emphasis in our scenario would create a different outcome for intervention and a different ending.
The Doctor Is In, Your Social Feed
Dr. Anders checked the overnight report produced by the AI predictive analysis program. The AI identified Don as a potential medical or mental health patient. Dr. Anders tasked the AI to begin tracking and issuing instant reports of increased stress or physical deterioration; within minutes, the AI had access to all of Don’s public and private data.
Later that afternoon, Don found himself engaged in another heated discussion with his wife; he blurted out, “I get so mad at you, sometimes I wish you were dead.” Anders was alerted immediately by the AI and dispatched a nearby paramedic team to Don’s home. After the team and Dr. Anders entered the residence, they immediately began therapeutic measures designed to reduce stress. Don spent a few days in the hospital to recover his lost health, followed by intensive couples counseling for him and his wife. A few weeks later, Don was back to exercising, looking for a new patron for his art, and working through issues with his wife.
Conclusion
What is present in both situations is the same surveillance model of sensors, algorithms, and humans. In one story, the ideology interprets the need for a judicial resolution. Still, in the other, a more empathetic public health emphasis is used to assess Don’s fate and prescribe an action to resolve his problems. If we accept that laws are intended to be moral principles that guide us and allow us to live together in a peaceful and humane society, we need to examine the morality of pre-emption. This imperative is especially true regarding our increased use of technology and AI, and to determine whose interests are best served by which type of intervention, and which ideology drives the policies.
Strategic foresight provides the methods by which we can explore the possible and probable futures that will result from the changing social, technological, economic, and political and legal landscapes. Exercising foresight allows examinations of the potential effects that different ideological conditions will create and the impact on the humans living in that future. It can provide ethicists with a laboratory to examine what changes may be present in the future, and how societal ethics needs to evolve. Its greatest strength, however, is to explore the preferable futures that we would like to live and what we can do to create that preferred future.
