Election Analysis: Can We Call It A Comeback? Or Will It Take Years? Hint: Yes and yes.

On Election Night, more than 30 congressional seats flipped, which is an important check on an out-of-control president and a Congress that enables him. But here’s an outcome at least as big: Democrats flipped more than 350 state legislative seats (for a net gain of at least 250 seats), making a serious dent against the losses of the Obama years since 2016.

This election was a very large wave. But it dispelled illusions that a single election — even a wave election — is sufficient to fundamentally change the politics of the country. Years of neglect and underinvestment, in addition to extreme gerrymandering, mean that we need time to win this fight. But it is our fight. And one worth having.

In our first cycle, Future Now Fund entered it in a big way:

• We endorsed 62 candidates, every single one a challenger running to flip a seat.
• We became one of the top two givers in Arizona, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina, either on the coordinated or independent side in our chambers.
• In three of our states, we achieved our big goals in a single election, flipping the New Hampshire Senate and the Maine Senate, and breaking the supermajority in the North Carolina House.
• In our target chambers, we endorsed 97% of the candidates that flipped seats. That means we endorsed every Democrat that flipped a Republican seat in each of our chambers, except in a single race (28 of 29 apparent flips, with 6 outstanding).
• In two states, we came within a stone’s throw of flipping the legislature. In Michigan, as of today, just a 1.6% swing would have broken the Republican majority.
• And in Arizona, the House majority hangs on even fewer votes. While we do not expect to get over the top, things are still up in the air, with hundreds of thousands of uncounted ballots. Based on current estimates, control of the House and Senate will be decided by 1.7 points and 3.3 points, respectively.
• Every candidate we endorsed was backed by a robust electoral effort, which means both a well-funded campaign and the broader infrastructure needed to change the game in state legislative races.

Click here for our results tracker with real-time updates and outcomes in every state.

WHAT WE DID IN 2018

We started with a 50 state analysis, crunching the key numbers in all 99 legislative chambers and calculating the dollars needed to have an outsized impact. Based on this information, we did a deep dive within our target states into the dynamics of every competitive district, got to know the candidates, and developed relationships with in-state leadership to ensure the overall operation was a worthwhile investment. Then we endorsed the challengers who were most likely to change the direction of their states.

The key to our success in 2018 is we didn’t just hand over a check and call it a day. We worked with candidates, caucuses and IEs to make their efforts better. We connected them with better pollsters, digital vendors and field organizers. We funded proven, evidence-based tactics, like social pressure mail that has been shown to increase turnout. We pushed in-state leadership to compete in every potential competitive district, and urged candidates to go out and knock on doors. In fact, we made our funding contingent on it.

MAINE

In Maine, we endorsed three of the four Democrats that flipped a seat, helping give the Maine Senate the largest majority any party has held in the chamber for over two decades. We made a few tough bets when it came to the districts we directed resources towards. For example, we supported Ned Claxton who flipped District 20, which went for Trump in 2016 and Paul LePage in 2014.

With a total in-state investment of $175,000, we funded radio and digital ads and evidence-based social pressure mail, and helped the IE with its issue polling early on to gain insights that proved critical to candidates’ successes. Our support in Maine also brought together the larger IE (which was focused up and down the ballot) together with the Senate effort, which ensured smooth coordination between them and led to more disciplined spending focused on the legislature.

MICHIGAN

$450,000 into Michigan helped incredible candidates win their races — and makes the Democratic effort more likely to get across the finish line in 2020. Six of our candidates won, representing every flipped seat in the Michigan House this cycle. Another three candidates came within less than 3 points of winning, based on preliminary results. And overall, current results indicate that 14 out of our 15 endorsees outperformed Hillary Clinton in their Republican-held districts. It appears that a difference of 1,519 total votes across three districts would have been enough to break the GOP majority.

Our investment allowed our endorsed candidates to get off the phones and knock on doors, which is the single most effective thing a candidate can do in state legislative races. Our six winning candidates collectively knocked on over 30,000 doors personally, with their campaigns knocking on more than 140,000 additional doors.

In addition, we funded a canvass that knocked on over 65,000 doors. We also funded an evidence-based social pressure mail program that reached more than 61,000 voters across the six winning districts. And we funded a campaign of compelling digital ads, highlighting candidates’ backgrounds and the issues they most cared about. Additionally, our investment allowed the Caucus to fight effectively in every potentially competitive district — no matter how tough the fundamentals or significant the dollars on the airwaves against our candidates. Making inroads on an expanded map is exactly what’s needed to make multi-cycle plays for the majority.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Three seats were required to flip the New Hampshire Senate going into Election Day and one incumbent Democrat lost on Election Night — so four wins were needed to flip.

The five candidates who are ahead and poised to flip the chamber were all endorsed by Future Now Fund, including Melanie Levesque, who’s on track to become the first African-American elected to the State Senate. But it was close: Based on unofficial tallies, it appears that the Senate was fewer than 250 votes across two districts away from being in a 12–12 deadlock.

Clearly, marginal dollars made a huge difference in the outcome, and our $52,000 investment in the state had an outsized impact: We contributed the maximum amount to all of our winners. When we learned there was no plan for caucus polling, we not only funded it, but we found an affordable high-quality pollster to do it. And when the caucus had no budget for a digital director, we funded this entire salary.

NORTH CAROLINA

In North Carolina, the goal was to net four seats to break the Republican supermajority and cue up a 2020 contest for the majority. And we succeeded. We endorsed all 11 candidates who appear to have won in Republican-controlled districts, for a net gain of nine seats in the chamber. Three of those candidates appear to have won by less than 800 votes, with five more up by less than 2,000.

With $360,000, Future Now Fund resources in-state went to evidence-based digital and mail turnout programs that reached over 250,000 voters, relational and field organizing in key districts that reached out to over 20,000 people, as well as peer to peer texting and phone calls to 75,000 people across our districts.

Many of these turnout focused programs also impacted voters in competitive State Senate districts. With the supermajority broken in that chamber as well, North Carolina will, against all odds, be on the table for a full trifecta in 2020.

ARIZONA

With state legislative campaign infrastructure being built from the ground up, in Arizona we pushed hard, and came up just short of getting across the finish line. It’s clear that Arizona will be a multi-cycle play. It’s also clear that it is very much in play. Four candidates appear to have flipped House seats, all endorsed by Future Now Fund. While votes are still being counted, this is on track to narrow the GOP majority in the House to 31–29, the closest split since Democrats last had control in 1966, and one seat short of a tie.

On the Senate side, preliminary results suggest that six out of seven Future Now Fund candidates outperformed Hillary Clinton, and three got more than 47.5% of the vote — a real heartbreaker.

In Arizona, with $550,000, Future Now Fund helped double the ADLCC’s budget for legislative campaigns, recruited experts to train organizers and oversee a field program that knocked on close to 250,000 doors, brought in partners that created compelling digital content and reached more than half a million voters across over 30 projects, and expanded the map to compete in every potential district. From the beginning, we urged Arizona Democrats to field two House candidates in every key district (each district sends two members to the House) and three of the four apparent winners are these “two-shot” candidates.

While more post-election analysis is needed, we believe the progress made and expertise shared will put us and Arizona Democrats in a strong position to get over the top in both chambers in 2020 — and change the political and policy calculus within the state for a generation.