Midterm Preview: What’s Up in the States
A letter from Future Now Fund’s Executive director Daniel Squadron on the state of the states heading into Election Day.
Dear friends,
For more than a decade I’ve believed that state legislatures are the key to rebuilding our democracy — the most important, though most often forgotten, corner of American politics. So, we launched Future Now & Future Now Fund with a simple goal: fix our country, one state at a time.
That means developing an ambitious agenda, designing the most robust lawmaker support tools ever built, and gathering solutions to help lawmakers improve people’s lives.
But first? Let’s win some elections. Future Now Fund identified five states where we could have an impact this year and build power for future cycles to achieve ambitious goals: higher wages, expanded healthcare, great schools, an end to political corruption, a fairer criminal justice system, better infrastructure and clean air and drinking water.
We endorsed candidates facing uphill battles. 61 of them. None are incumbents, and none are running for Democrat-held seats.
Future Now Fund’s spending strategy was designed to change the long-term picture in these states, starting now. We developed close partnerships with campaigns, legislative caucuses and in-state independent expenditure tables.
At every step, we empowered candidates to put down the phone and get out into their districts. And we filled in strategic funding gaps with evidence-based tactics to turn out more voters.
So, this was never going to be an easy Election Day. The outcome will, in part, be driven by the national tide (and the size of it).
But whatever happens nationally, we’re very proud that every one of our candidates has been backed by a robust effort. Today, we are one of the top 3 funders in every single state legislative effort we’re playing in, on either the direct or independent side.
Any way you slice it, our work is having an impact. Here’s what to look for in each of our states…
Maine: All 35 seats are up for election in the Maine State Senate. Netting just one more seat would change the majority. Hillary Clinton won 5 districts currently held by Republicans. Future Now Fund has endorsed 4 candidates.
The biggest challenge in the state is a political cliché: it has a very high proportion of voters that the media says are Trumpist all the way — rural, white, and non-college-educated. And Maine did elect the very Trumpian Paul LePage as its Governor. But a majority of Mainers supported Medicaid expansion and higher wages in last year’s ballot referendums. Our work with the independent expenditure table has been about making sure voters know that our endorsed candidates share their values, through top-tier research, evidence-based voter turnout and rural radio. If we are successful in the Senate, our work will help defend the Democratic majority in the Maine House and provide a critical boost in the very, very competitive gubernatorial election to succeed LePage.
North Carolina: All 120 House seats are up for grabs in a chamber that had such egregious racial gerrymandering that a court forced new districts this year. A net gain of 4 seats would break the Republican supermajority. With 16 seats needed to break the majority, taking control is likely a two-cycle effort. But with one of the strongest in-state political operations in the country and inspiring candidates in every district, it is possible.
Our independent expenditure effort has been focused heavily on boosting turnout, especially among Black voters and in regions impacted by poisoned waterways. By working strategically with experienced in-state partners, we’ve deployed communications and turnout efforts that leverage the best national research. This will help State Senate candidates too, as Democrats in the upper chamber also fight to break the supermajority to partner with Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.
New Hampshire: All 24 Senate seats are up for grabs, with a net gain of 3 seats needed to flip the chamber. There are 2 Republican Senate districts where Hillary Clinton won and 3 additional districts where Barack Obama won in 2012.
New Hampshire’s politics are as independent as its reputation, so this is a state where individual candidates and on-the-ground dynamics will determine the outcome more than party affiliation will. Future Now Fund has endorsed 8 candidates. Because it is a small state, our work has had an outsized impact: candidates have been able to hire critical campaign and field staff — a luxury in prior cycles — and the caucus effort has stood up research and digital operations that would otherwise not have existed. And, historically success in the New Hampshire Senate has created a coattail effect in the overlapping (very small and numerous) House districts.
Michigan: All of the 110 House seats are up for grabs. A net gain of 9 would change the governing majority. Future Now Fund has endorsed 15 candidates to increase our chances of overcoming the state’s extreme partisan gerrymandering. Even so, as we all know, Michigan was a tough state for Hillary Clinton. There are only 4 Republican-held seats in districts that she won. President Obama did slightly better in 2012, winning 7 of the Republican-held seats.
In addition to maximum contributions to our candidates, Future Now Fund resources have created innovative digital content, expanded grassroots voter contact and ensured that the caucus is not outspent down the home stretch. Gretchen Whitmer is a strong gubernatorial candidate and the state’s water crises (well beyond Flint) have become a major knock on the existing Republican trifecta, both of which will help us make progress toward the majority.
Arizona: The State House and Senate have overlapping districts that each send one Senator and two House members to the capitol. In the Senate, a net gain of 2 seats will break the state’s Republican trifecta; in the House, a net gain of 5 will. In both chambers, victory requires outperforming both Clinton and Obama, very difficult in a midterm election. But Arizona really needed some support.
For too long, local capacity in the state has been overlooked by big political players. We were able to introduce national partners to the state — and ensure the caucus had the resources to pay for them. We made a maximum contribution to every eligible competitive candidate. And, we invested in expanding the map, even in districts that may not be in play for another cycle. Sometimes growing a political operation from the ground up takes a couple of cycles to bear fruit. We are proud of the roots that have been planted for this election — and the next.
These campaigns will not dominate Tuesday’s cable news coverage, but I believe they are the key to changing our politics, now and for the future. Thank you for sharing that belief, for being part of this effort, and for believing in the power of states.
Onward,
Daniel Squadron, Executive Director
