The future of work: will everything become “automatable”?

The displacement of jobs by two primary forces — globalization and technology — is a defining issue of our time. While these forces have disrupted work in many professions, from steelworkers to travel agents, jobs in some sectors have so far been considered immune, because they have been either non-tradeable or non-automatable:

• Non-tradeable. Unlike tradeables (goods and services that can be traded internationally) non-tradeables are typically services that have to be provided locally because of physical constraints. It would be wildly impractical, for instance, to go to China for a haircut or ask a cab driver in Mumbai to drive you across Manhattan.
• Non-automatable. One could similarly argue that many jobs are “non-automatable”. These have tended to be services requiring creativity or nuanced judgment. For instance, we’ve become accustomed to automation replacing checkout cashiers or toll booth agents, but have assumed that the work of musicians, writers, lawyers, accountants and doctors could only be performed by humans.

Such assumptions are about to be challenged by the next wave of technological change.

Advances such as artificial intelligence, robotics and blockchain are delivering quantum leaps in capabilities — and doing so with such remarkable speed — that it’s reasonable to posit that few jobs will remain entirely untouched by automation.

Consider robotics. Robots have been around for decades, but their capabilities were so limited that robots could only be used in highly controlled environments, such as the factory floor, where they performed the same task over and over again. For many decades, robots simply were not ready for the real world, with all its uncertainty and variability.

How rapidly that has changed. In just a few years, advances in sensors, miniaturization, processing speed and more have taken autonomous vehicles and drones from the realm of science fiction to the cusp of real world applicability.

Two shifts

The mass automation of work will happen through two shifts:

1. “Non-automatable” jobs will be automated

The first shift will affect work that has so far been considered safe from disruption. These are jobs that were both “non-automatable” and “non-tradeable” (Quadrant 1 in the accompanying graphic).

With the rapid increase in artificial intelligence capabilities already underway, much creative and white collar work — once considered exclusively the domain of humans — could well be conducted by machines in the future.

Already, algorithms are writing articles that are indistinguishable from those written by human reporters. Today, primary care physicians follow implicit algorithms — evaluating symptoms, conducting tests, prescribing treatments, and so on — which could easily be done by AI in the future.

Much of the work of accountants could be rendered redundant by blockchain, the technology underlying Bitcoin.

Similarly, blue collar service workers in the non-tradeable sector — from truck drivers to restaurant and hotel employees — will likely see their jobs disrupted by robotics and autonomous vehicles. Your cab ride can’t be outsourced to Mumbai, but it could certainly be delegated to an automated vehicle in the future.

2. Automation will substitute for trade

A second shift in the mass automation of work will affect jobs that have already been disrupted by globalization and trade (Quadrant 2 in the accompanying graphic). Jobs that have been “offshored” in recent years (i.e., made tradeable) will be disrupted once again — this time, by automation.

Jobs move offshore because of a common underlying logic. First, they are relatively labor intensive, and can therefore benefit from large inter-country wage differentials. Second, they fall in an automation sweet spot: existing technologies do not allow these jobs to be automated, but they do allow for the work to be conducted remotely in cost-effective ways.

For instance, call center work had not been automatable because it required too much nuance and human judgement but, starting in the late 1990s, it became possible to move call centers offshore thanks to improvements in the internet, broadband connectivity and telephony penetration.

Similarly, manufacturing could only be automated in limited ways because of existing constraints in industrial robots (which were expensive and relatively inflexible) but technologies such as sophisticated logistics and supply chain management platforms made it possible to move entire supply chains offshore.

The next wave of automation is poised to challenge this underlying calculus — with profound consequences for workers in emerging markets and even, perhaps, for long-standing trade patterns.

Consider, for example, that improvements in artificial intelligence are spawning chatbots, which can already handle many of the queries formerly routed to human call center representatives. As this technology improves, it’s likely to displace much call center work in emerging markets.

Meanwhile, advances in industrial robotics are making robots cheaper, smaller and more adaptive — which could flip the economics of offshore manufacturing, displacing many factory workers in these locations.

What’s next?

So what does the future hold? Look for three trends.

1. (Practically) everything will become automated

Expect automation on a scale unlike anything we’ve seen before. Few jobs will be completely untouched by AI and robotics. I think that my job is so complex and nuanced that it couldn’t possibly be done by a machine.

As you read this, you probably think likewise.

Let’s accept these beliefs for what they are: a cognitive bias that will likely be proven wrong. As recently as five years ago, it would have been far-fetched to envision replacing truck drivers with automated vehicles. Today, it seems almost inevitable.

2. Work automation ≠ work elimination

But there is a big difference between disrupting labor and eliminating it entirely. Automation tends to supplement human labor rather than completely replace it. Decades after the advent of ATMs and online travel sites, bank tellers and travel agents are still with us. But they do their jobs differently, functioning at a higher level and providing the context, customization and human touch that machines cannot.

Similarly, tomorrow’s algorithms will take on much of the work done by doctors and call center agents, but they won’t entirely replace humans in these roles. We will still need people to interpret results in real-world context, override decisions when needed and provide the empathy than machines cannot.

3. Automation will create new jobs

Perhaps our biggest blind spot with respect to digital disruption is that we’re unable to imagine the new jobs that technology creates. Think back to the early days of the personal computer revolution. In the late 1970s, the best minds in the business couldn’t imagine how omnipresent personal computers would soon become. And certainly nobody envisioned the legions of jobs that would emerge in entirely new categories — web designers, search engine optimizers, app programmers and more.

Today, we are at a similar point with respect to AI and robotics. We read constantly about how automation will create massive job losses. What doesn’t get discussed as much — perhaps because our imaginations are too limited to fully fathom it — is how automation will create entirely new job categories.

Mass automation does not have to mean mass unemployment. But it almost certainly will mean that we’ll work in different ways — at new jobs, requiring new skills, alongside our new co-workers: the machines.

I am a Director at EYQ, EY’s think tank for the 21st century, where I cover numerous topics, including disruptive innovation, the future of work, behavioral economics and health 2.0. The views in this article are mine and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organization or its member firms.