Iran. Heading toward the “Implementation Day”.

Erik Burckhardt & Leo Hoffmann-Axthelm

Original version in Italian: ispionline.it

Only travel can do justice to the contrasts that inflame the Middle East. A slow trip from the peaks of Darmavand, in Iran’s north, all the way down to the Persian Gulf, on to Dubai across the Strait of Hormuz, and finally to the capitals of Qatar and Turkey.

Ours is the age of information, but online even the most experienced will find relatively little information on Iran. Decidedly less than one is used to find on other places showcasing a cultural and historic wealth comparable to that of ancient Persia. The authorities of today’s Islamic Republic of Iran have clearly invested more in the censorship of the internet than they have in modern communication technology.

This shift brings us back to 2009, when the Green Revolution saw young Iranians take to the street by the thousands, tweeting and posting their indignation with Ahmadinejad’s reactionary and oppressive government two years ahead of the Arab Spring. Ever since the the two main American social media sites, along with a good portion of news websites from cross the world, are blocked. At the same time, few if any under-30s will be caught without Virtual Private Network (VPN) technology able to circumvent these bans directly on their smartphone.

One of many signs how the Green Revolution (at least 150 of its leaders are still political prisoners) has left its mark, while desire for change has found its temporary valve in the election of Rouhani and the successful conclusion of the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

At the same time and paradoxically, the Ayatollahs that ban social networks at the same time embrace the keyboard to themselves to send out tweets as well as threats to the world. A paradox that Iranians patiently feign to be put up with, just as they superficially attempt to at least somewhat hide the obvious and formally forbidden satellite dishes on the roofs of any apartment block. They’ll come to destroy the dish and collect a fine, but it is worth it.

Excited bodies in a patient and optimist mind: thus can be defined the 70 million Iranians that stroll across the bazaars, and privately betray impatient enthusiasm – as they will admit in the privacy of their ancient cars of local and French design, whizzing in Tehran’s insane traffic and intoxicating the incredibly polluted air.

Inshallah, once sanctions are lifted, new cars or at least spare parts will become available. “Inshallah!”, repeat the taxi drivers who for a handful of euros will transport you across the jungle that the locals call traffic. Indeed, the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action is not a fetish for a scattering of intellectuals; it is a source of hope for all strata of society.

The implementation day is awaited much in the way our adolescents cross days off until their coming of age: not so much to buy booze, if the irony is permitted, but to reenter the international marketplace.

While Iran already assured its Gulf competitors that its renewed market share was not to the further detriment of oil prices, even the most superficial observer will know that its economy has so much more to offer, with a young workforce far more qualified than the region’s peers.

Under the noses of the old and current Supreme Leaders, Imam Khomeini and Ali Khamenei, almost always pictured together on giant billboards across the country, a modern society is going about its daily business. Under the anti-US propaganda, life takes on exasperatedly and pathetically Western forms, giving way to a sort of fetishism of international brands of the ultra-American sort such as Coca-Cola, Nike and Apple.

The stern faces of the Ayatollahs are therefore more of a nuisance, an unhappy representation of the constitutional setup of this country, a subject of citizens’ complaints much in the way we complain about overbearing bureaucracy. If, however, in duly adjusted scale, with women in particular subject to the “Islamic dress code” in public places. With vivid knowledge however, they will point out that their constitutional constraints, while of extensive reach, do not reach deep. The place has been an “Islamic Republic” for 40 years, and will not change overnight. However one can emphasize the Republic more than the qualifier preceding it.

Since the days of Mossadegh, intellectuals imagined and pictured a democratic Persia. They did not give up when in 1953, coming to the rescue of the commercial interests of a Western firm, an American and British intrusion orchestrated a Coup and reinstated the dictatorial regime of the Shah Reza Pahlavi. Some of them did not even give up following the 40 years’ rule of the Ayatollahs. In perfect Iranian style, at home as in exile, they discretely continued their work. Tip-toeing, they have known to maintain the bonds with their society and interpret and guide it, as in the case of the painter, poet and sculptor Farideh Lashai, curated by the Italian Germano Celant, at the Tehran Museum of Contemporary Art, as does the vitality of the Iran Art Forum, where creativity is invading former military barracks.

On the other hand, the average age in Iran is 30, and more than half the population grew up under the watchful eye of the Pasdaran Revolutionary Guards. Nonetheless it is these youngsters that bring the energy and openness that inform our own optimism ahead of the 26 February parliamentary election. After the deposit of candidacies, only 11% of candidates will be female (against 8% last time).

In spite of this disappointment, the elections will surely give an indication whether the population is still living the ‘separation’ as enacted by the Iranian director Asghar Farhadi in his Oscar-winning movie, or if less well-off classes, distant from the capital, have caught up with the modern vision of a different Iran. As indeed the current version does not suit them well: beyond suppressing its culture, Islamic law should in theory impose a heavily regulated economy. The reality however betrays an impenetrable bureaucratic jungle that favors every type of corruption. The lack of implementation leaves the most vulnerable parts of society most exposed to the forces of the market, while oligarchs enrich themselves thanks to the arbitrage opportunities afforded by international sanctions. A turbo-capitalism to make the oft-criticized American model pale in comparison.

And we have yet to add the tension and danger the regime exposes its population to internationally. Just in these days, as Iran was preparing to retake its place in the regional economy, the rhetoric employed by Ali Khamenei in response to the largest mass execution in Saudi Arabia since 1980 certainly do not help to placate sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims. The execution of 47 inmates does deserve a unanimous condemnation, but terms such as ‘blood’ and ‘revenge’ are unhelpful, and this from a regime that is second only to China in terms of capital punishment. And yet his incitement led directly to attacks on the Saudi embassy in Tehran, sadly reminiscent of episodes from 1979 and the occupation of the US embassy. While this time those responsible were quickly arrested and severe punishment announced, the events provided a justification for Saudi Arabia to further escalate tensions, breaking off diplomatic relations completely (Qatar, Bahrain and Sudan followed suit).

All of this while the rapprochement between these regional giants is more than ever before crucial to the solution of regional and humanitarian crises. Iran is locked between countries at war, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The effects are visible in the cities’ streets, home to many, mostly Afghan (Sunni) refugees.

In the south of the country, on the Persian Gulf, tension is never far from the surface. Regular check-points slow down travel along the coastal roads, and ferry connections with the Gulf states across the Strait of Hormuz are the first to be cut at the first hint of renewed hostilities.

But what can we do? The European Union and the West altogether have to tread carefully with all political, diplomatic and economic instruments at its disposal to encourage and sustain the long hoped for leap forward in Iranian politics. The next travels by President Rouhani are an occasion to reach out to the best face the Iranian regime has to offer.

Diplomatic engagement – the EU is due to open an embassy here in 2016 – should be reinforced to sustain the economic transition and promote the political one. The relaunch of bilateral relations and the manifold deals this will enable are important for all sides, but must be taken as an opportunity for regulatory convergence and imperatively a steep increase in the protection of human rights and the environment on the side of Iranians.

This is an ambition we should like to see applied also in the dealings of our Governments with other countries of the Gulf region, who have up until now shown a shameless degree of disregard of the most basic human rights, and who have been allowed to buy our silence and tolerance via petrol-fueled investments. Investments also in breathtaking cathedrals in the middle of the desert, such as Dubai, whose perfect order and folkloristic white robes and overbearing luxury defy the imagination of backpackers who left behind the authenticity and decaying charm of Persian cities.

To the average European, Dubai’s luxury is no less exotic than Iran’s dusty chaos, and both entail the same sense of disorientation. A sense that encompasses both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, prey to the bulimic up-and-down of oil prices, while old and new fears come to haunt the region’s common destiny.

The Qatar Airways flight monitor draws curious lines onto the globe, zig-zagging from Doha to Istanbul.

And indeed: in the way lie Iraq and Syria.