The Next Normal — What I will look forward to, reluctantly accept, and outright reject

I like matrix diagrams. It’s a deceptively simple way to illustrate possible outcomes and decision points to be made based on how various factors interact with each other — a fantastic framework Economics majors to MBAs can use to make themselves look hella smart.

I sure did feel smart-ish after browsing through McKinsey’s latest Covid-19 Briefing Materials. I thought they did a great job of summarizing the possible mid term economic outcomes of the Coronavirus outbreak (page 15 of the report) based on the effectiveness of public health responses on virus spread and the effectiveness of economic policies to mitigate the resulting recession.

This in turn inspired my latest cartoon, spurred me to think about the various scenarios of what the “Next Normal” would be like for society as the crisis extends, and made me wonder what would be my personal capacity to accept the various foreseeable changes in the time of Corona (i.e. our lives between now and the time after the virus has been largely eliminated, our global economy gets out of what the IMF now calls “The Great Lockdown Recession”, and our society has adapted sweeping changes that resulted from the Covid-19 crisis)

Before I delve in deeper, let me explain a few assumptions and definitions:

• The Y and X axes of my matrix are the level of viral spread and the level of how society adapts to the virus respectively,
• The later, of course, is highly dependent on a lot of factors, notably governments’ lockdown policies, the resulting new social norms based on those policies, and the propensity of people to adapt to new norms.
• I define the “Next Normal” as what I feel is a combination of the most likely and the most ideal scenario: the virus spread will eventually be contained, even prior to a mass vaccine. Then society, and in turn the economy, will be in an altered state of “cautious optimism” (i.e. consumers are more selective with their spending on goods and experiences, and businesses will adapt to these behaviors relatively quickly)

Now, I’ve compiled a shortlist of key changes that our societies may realize, based on a few sources (such as Politico, MIT Technology Review, McKinsey) and my personal observations, — categorized them to what I personally feel I’m looking forward to*, what I will reluctantly accept, and what I may likely resist.

What I’m looking forward to:

• Increased prevalence of contactless commerce — high time e-commerce becomes the norm, especially in developing Asia where going to malls are a pain in the ass anyway.
• Respect and better treatment of essential workers such as healthcare professionals, cooks, delivery people, security guards, policemen, construction workers, etc. — because, well, they’ve always deserved it.
• Big government — increasing pressure for governments to protect its people and its resources, and prioritizing important social policies, such as public health care — yes, I’m a socialist, liberal snowflake. Fight me (not physically of course, I’d totally lose).
• Telemedicine — delivery of healthcare (ex. consultations, diagnosis, prescription drugs) remotely, coupled with health tech (ex. wearables, personal health digital records) — less times queued up in a hospital/clinic waiting room is very welcome
• Return to faith in Science and Scientific Experts — so please anti-vaxers, flat-earthers, and most importantly, climate change deniers….please stop it.
• A stronger sense of (local and global) community — Now that we’ve had a taste of how it feels to have shared “enemy” that we can actively defeat through mass communal actions, such as social distancing and stay at home practices, perhaps we’ll come out of this being a bit more “kumbaya-ish” to each other.

What I will reluctantly accept:

• Social Distancing Norms that will affect many facets of our lives — especially mandatory work from home, remote learning for children, and limited physical interactions with friends — Safety first. Need for human contact second, or third. The introverted half of my personality will be fine. The extroverted half will go into a painful withdrawal phase.
• Increased government surveillance and social control on its citizens — I guess we’ve already sacrificed our privacy to our internet overlords at Facebook / Google, and one can totally trust that the Singapore government will not abuse my data through their Trace Together App, so this is not much of a stretch. Until you find yourself getting nabbed by men in suits in the middle of the night for sharing some anarchist, anti-government quote (which I totally haven’t done…ever…🙄)
• A shift away from “Frivolous Consumerism” — I love buying stuff and paying for awesome experiences that I don’t really need. It makes me feel whole. But while I’m going to miss having more Ikea lamp and adidas sneakers than I know what to do with, perhaps it is time to keep my spending on more important things…like investing in my children’s future, a mid-priced pair of running shoes, and green leafy salads.

What I will most likely resist or be very upset about:

• An increasing comfort in extended isolation — Although I do enjoy a lot of time by myself, and I can likely deal with remote working longer, I just cannot find myself being comfortable being physically isolated from people when interaction counts. I never was a phone person growing up, and I still find it weird doing e-drinking sessions on Zoom.
• Homeschooling — There’s are many reasons most people pay others to educate their kids. The most important one is that most people are NOT qualified to give their children a formal education, including myself. So no…I will not hitch a ride on the homeschooling bandwagon, and I will soon try to pressure our daughter’s Montessori to have a more robust remote learning program.
• A (potential) Digital vs. Physical Workforce Inequality — Although I am very much a part of the former who can (more or less) productively do my job remotely through digital means, I do acknowledge the immense importance of the work the “physical” economy workers do — food servers, construction workers, retail workers, factory workers, pilots and flight attendants etc. — those who cannot earn a living right now because of a worldwide lockdown. This virus is exposing a rather large kink in our increasingly digital economies: most of the money is flowing up to the minority of tech/digital-centric professionals, while leaving the majority of physical workers unemployed or at increasing threat if unemployment.

I don’t know which ones of these will stick in the longer term post-Covid-19. Although I am quite sure that the world will realize some lasting effects from this crisis. We just don’t know to what extent, and how long until we “normalize” into levels we’re comfortable with.

And I guess that’s what makes us so unsettled right now, that fact that no one can predict what’s coming up next.