IPCC warns, “We’re running out of time.”

… but it is still possible to race against fate

“Skating over thin ice, the only hope of salvation lies in speed,” wrote Ralph Waldo Emerson, first creating the metaphor to describe a risky condition that has an impelling caution as its only chance of escape.

By a strange fatality, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, commented on the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with an image similar to that of the writer, but now anything but metaphorical: “Humanity is poised on a thin layer of ice, which is melting fast.”

The IPCC, established in 1988 to provide an international policy with a scientific basis through which to deal with climate change, released the AR6 Synthesis Report Climate Change 2023 on March 19: 36 pages that succinctly illustrate the planet’s dire state of health and foreshadow “speed” as our only chance of “salvation.”

In 2018, the IPCC had already highlighted the “unprecedented” challenge we would have to face to keep global warming below the 1.5 C° threshold. A losing battle, considering that, as the report states, what has been done so far has not been sufficient: the “current plans,” but also the “pace,” “scope,” and shortcomings of previous plans have been utterly unsuccessful in solving this global crisis that is gradually dragging us into a future defined as “dangerous.”

In fact, according to the study, without concrete and immediate action, global warming will far exceed the maximum threshold predicted five years ago, reaching about 3.2 C° by 2100, noting that global temperature has risen faster since 1970 than during any other fifty-year time frame in the last 2000 years. Moreover, as noted in AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, a number of tipping points (i.e., thresholds beyond which our globe must rearrange itself abruptly and/or irreversibly, generating severe chain reactions), which more than ten years ago were thought to be achievable with only a 5 C° temperature increase, have already been far exceeded. Who is responsible for this disaster? Us.

It is repeatedly remarked in the report that it is “human activities” that have “unequivocally caused global warming”: from “unsustainable energy use” to “fossil fuels”; from unconscionable “lifestyles” to reckless “consumption and production patterns.” In short, as emissions and global average temperature have increased, so has the frequency of extreme weather events and the potency of damage to the ecosystem. Climate change dangerously affects humans and nature: it undermines security, causes losses, and disrupts air, water, land, fauna, flora, oceans, and cities. The harm of climate change on food security are too often silenced, but not in the report, which highlights the dramatic consequences on food availability and access, rising food prices, and increased disease and mortality.

All these phenomena specifically affect certain regions defined in the AR6 Synthesis Report Climate Change 2023 as “highly vulnerable to climate change”; in these region, deaths from extreme events (floods, storms, or droughts) are 15 times higher than in the rest of the world. The paradox is that these countries, which account for about half the global population, are the least responsible for the climate crisis, despite being the most affected. The report states that “10% of households” worldwide produce between “34% and 45% of all domestic emissions”; and 50%, only 15%. The inference, highlighted repeatedly in the study, is that the cause of climate change must also be fought as a matter of social justice.

Therefore, the choices we make in the coming years will be decisive in protecting the needs of the present without jeopardizing, as the famous Brundland Report reminds us, “the possibility of satisfying the needs” of future generations.

However, the situation requires immediate measures. Quoting Ralph Waldo Emerson again, “salvation” really lies in “speed”: because, as pointed out in the IPCC study, it is still possible to act as long as it is done quickly. It is imperative to activate a deep, rapid, and lasting limitation of emissions now to bring them toward zero in 2050. Those of carbon dioxide, compared to 2019 levels, must be reduced by 48% in 2030, 65% in 2035, 80% in 2040, and 99% in 2050; approximately the identical percentage reductions (43%, 60%, 69%; 84%) are required concerning greenhouse gases. This process would trigger a chain reaction that benefits air and water quality, soil performance, health, welfare and nutrition, and biodiversity protection. It is all inextricably connected, and change brings the need to reknit the links between the dimensions damaged by our mistakes.

I was not surprised to note that the IPCC brings back one of the pillars of the Future Food Institute (FFI) as a solution to counter the emergency: the activation of an integrated approach, one that boosts sustainable development and, at the same time, protects nature. Changes in food, electricity, transportation, industry, buildings and land use, and the political, economic, environmental, human, and social spheres make what we call Integral Ecology possible. A balanced ecosystem between man and nature, capable of nurturing and regenerating itself to sustain itself over time. For this integral regeneration to be realized, also as outlined by FFI, six areas need to be addressed:

• The policy area (territorial development; urban plans; collective well-being)
• The environmental area (food and water security; care of biodiversity)
• The human area (food quality; health)
• The social area (inclusion; active citizenship; equality)
• The cultural area (land redevelopment)
• The economic area (new sustainable production models)

In conclusion, I think it is vital to point out that in the section on Health and Nutrition, the IPCC brings out food as a foundational element of one of the possible climate adaptation strategies: “healthy, balanced and sustainable diets” that “contribute to nutrition, health, biodiversity, and other environmental benefits.” We at Future Food Institute are convinced that it is still possible to safeguard the environment, benefit new generations, and ensure social justice precisely through a sustainable, participatory, and integral model of development based on the Mediterranean Diet. A lifestyle that protects biodiversity, soil, landscape, sea, and individual and community well-being.

The pandemic has sadly taught us not to underestimate the possibility of catastrophic scenarios. If we do not act now on behalf of our planet,” the report says, “losses and damage will increase, and human and natural systems will soon reach the limits of adaptation.

A month ago, precisely by hypothesizing a dramatic future, with the possibility of famine in Europe, together with the {[(ethical)aesthetic]anesthetic collective}, Future Food Institute created an exhibition entitled Eucarestia — No Food Tomorrow. And, starting from that terrible hypothesis, we decided to “give thanks” (drawing on the etymology of εὐχαριστία) to the main ingredients of the Mediterranean Diet: oil, wheat, wine, and seawater, whose microscopic images were turned into NFTs to attract as many eyes and minds as possible to the protection of a tomorrow dangerously threatened by our actions.

After all, no fate is not won by contempt for what has been done. The IPCC tells us that we are running out of time, but we have solutions: first and foremost, the awareness that sometimes (we must admit, despite ourselves) can only emerge from error.

The Future Food Institute is an international social enterprise and the cornerstone of the Future Food Ecosystem, a collection of research labs, partnerships, initiatives, platforms, networks, entrepreneurial projects, and academic programs aiming to build a more equitable world grounded in integral ecological regeneration, through enlightening a world-class breed of innovators, boosting entrepreneurial potential, and improving agri-food expertise and tradition.

Future food advocates for positive change through initiatives in Waste & Circular Systems, Water Safety & Security, Climate, Earth Regeneration, Mediterranean Foodscape, Nutrition for All, Humana Communitas, and Cities of the Future as we catalyze progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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