Will robots rule?
As artificial intelligence matures at its exponential pace, will it usher us into an era of joblessness and economic disaster? Or, will technology take care of the grunt work, leaving the most creative and mindful jobs to humans?
Even more difficult than chess, Go is a game of astounding complexity, each new match beginning with more potential moves than there are atoms in the entire universe. This ancient Chinese pastime was little known to the world until March of 2016 when AlphaGo, a software program created by Google, was poised to compete with human Go master, Lee Sedol of South Korea.
For several days Sedol faced his binary opponent. One stone was placed after another — black, white, black, white — as millions watched to see who would triumph in this historic battle between man and machine.
Then, when AlphaGo won four out of five fateful matches, the internet burst forth with terminator jokes, and anxious questions about unexpectedly self-aware iPhones. All kidding aside, developments like AlphaGo do call for some speculation. Artificial intelligence is slowly creeping towards human-level functionality. What does that mean for us — humans?
Understanding the Tension Between Man & Machine
a.k.a. The History of Luddite Protest
Skepticism and anxiety about technology is a tale as old as time. When the hand axe was first chiseled out of stone thousands of years ago, some caveman undoubtedly yearned for the good ol’ days, when work was done by bare hand, by real caveman. Even the venerable Plato is famous for condemning pen and paper. This outrageous technology, he argued, would rob man of his capacity for memory and true knowledge.
Technology is not necessarily threatening in and of itself. However, its ability to alter the very fabric of society and the most familiar aspects of our daily lives, can bring on a real and valid sense of anxiety.
The prize for technology-induced anxiety, however, goes to the Luddites — skilled workers who turned against the newly minted machines of England’s Industrial Revolution.
With axe and sledgehammer, they bore down on what was then the apparatus of the future. To this day, the Luddites lend their name to anyone who questions glittering new tech. Despite their violence, these Luddites are arguably a misunderstood clan. In fact, many of those involved in the revolt were not so much raging against the machines themselves, as they were protesting the replacement of human labor by automated contraptions. Technology is not necessarily threatening in and of itself. However, its ability to alter the very fabric of society and the most familiar aspects of our daily lives, can bring on a real and valid sense of anxiety.
Therefore, let’s give the Luddites a break, and accept that their skepticism was not wholly unjustified. Furthermore, let’s bring their dilemma into our modern context and ask ourselves: what is the Luddite struggle of our time?
But, wait. Before we can really get into the Luddite hurdle of our era, it’s important to first understand what technologies are actually defining these early years of the 21st century. If we don’t have a good grasp on these notions, then the whole enchilada unfortunately falls apart.
On to a quick review!
How Computers Reimagine Work
a.k.a. The Two Waves of AI
AI has colored the imagination of many sci-fi writers and fans. Yet, as we move forward into the 21st century, and witness historic moments like the triumph of AlphaGo, the potential of artificial intelligence graduates from the realm of fantasy and emerges in the public consciousness as a reality. Evidently, one is obligated to ask — what is artificial intelligence to begin with, and where is it going?
As computing power grows exponentially, the pace at which machines are able to “learn” quickens — and that is where the revolution really begins.
Historically speaking, there have been two primary waves of artificial intelligence. The first, was the development of ruled-based computation. Machines like the ENIAC, invented by the US government after World War II, were the earliest computers of this era. When it first debuted, rule-based computing saw the end of many jobs: in factories, farms, and the office (no more human calculators), work changed and adapted to new technological capabilities.
The second wave of artificial intelligence is the one that we are experiencing today. Machine learning refers to the development of programs that strive to imitate the function of the human brain, and which learn based on experience. In this case, the computer is given goals as well as vast libraries of information. Then, through trial and error, the machine tries to achieve these goals by analyzing the given inputs. Everything from your Facebook feed to Google Search and self-driving cars run on this kind of learning algorithm. As computing power grows exponentially, the pace at which machines are able to “learn” quickens — and that is where the revolution really begins.
This new form of artificial intelligence is what has so many people worried about their jobs. Because machine learning emulates the very synapses within the human brain, it clearly encroaches on what was once solely human territory.
If machine learning is creating tech that literally imitates human cognition, one has to wonder what kind of work such a machine can do.
Yes, Robots Will Take Your Job
a.k.a. Introducing the New Job Market
This is where things get bleak (but they’ll get better, so stick around!). If you’ve been waiting to find out whether or not a robot is going to take your job — well, the answer is most likely yes.
As machine learning progresses, it becomes evident that jobs which do not require a high or abstract level of thinking, will be automated within the next thirty years. Back in 2016, White House economists reported that there was an 83% chance that workers earning less than $20/hr would lose their jobs to machines. Of course, there will always be some jobs that are irreplaceable. At least, that’s how we flatter ourselves. Certain jobs do require human connection, genuine creativity, and the subjective perspective of the human experience. Artist, writer, physician, therapist, stylist, engineer — all these professions will most likely remain within the realm of human function. That is not to say, however, that they won’t be enhanced by machines.
As long as technology remains a tool, many people feel that they will maintain their dignity in the workplace. That is a comforting thought, but don’t get too comfortable too fast…
In the case of high-level thinking jobs, machines can act as extremely powerful tools. A doctor may use artificial intelligence to obtain the most accurate diagnosis, and then based on his knowledge of the patient’s many circumstances make an informed, human-sensitive decision about treatment. Writers and engineers will have AI to help them do research and find solutions to analytic problems that are too vast for humans to flesh out on their own.
The ideal solution, perhaps, is a hybrid between human and machine intelligence. As long as technology remains a tool, many people feel that they will maintain their dignity in the workplace. That is a comforting thought, but don’t get too comfortable too fast
The Unfathomable Power of Superintelligence
a.k.a. Behold the Terminator
Alas, there is one more very important distinction that we have to address. What we’ve failed to mention thus far, is that there are two kinds of artificial intelligence that run on machine learning algorithms.
The first is what we have been describing up until now, narrow artificial intelligence (ANI), the benign algorithms that produce your Facebook feed, and which may eventually take over a number of low-level jobs. In the realm of theory, however, there exists a far more advanced artificial intelligence, one that researchers deem to be inevitable and unfathomably powerful.
We have no idea what will happen when we create a machine that surpasses our own intellect.
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a machine that can function at a level that is equal to or greater than that of a human brain. If the thread of machine learning is followed through to its end — the relationship of the neurons of the brain replicated to a vast proportion — then we may have an intelligence that is as smart as a human, or even more so; a state commonly referred to as superintelligence.
Naturally, we have no idea what will happen when we create a machine that surpasses our own intellect. Many of Silicon Valley’s leading minds have speculated on this topic for well over twenty years. Ray Kurzweil, Head of Engineering at Google, is famous for his unnerving predictions about AGI and its consequences.
To spare you some lengthy details, we won’t get into the meat of the topic here, but we will add that the possibility of such intelligence is real and has the potential to transform our society in ways that we simply cannot imagine at this moment in time. The trajectory, in short, has not yet reached its destination. We are still moving forward towards the infinite potential of technology.
That said, if you are interested in learning about the minutia of AGI, then we strongly encourage you to read the book Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom, professor of philosophy at Oxford University, who is considered one of the utmost experts on the topic of artificial intelligence.
A Beautiful Union of Man and Machine
a.k.a. Hopes, Dreams & Technosocialism
Hoping that we aren’t obliterated by some vast superintelligence which reasonably concludes that humans are the scum of the earth — the future could hold some spectacular realities!
In a brighter future, technology could be the force that frees us of unnecessary burdens, and lets us realize the most human functions of being.
Indeed, what would a world look like where all mundane jobs that are easy to automate simply do not exist? How would we set up our society and how would humanity thrive? There is much to deliberate about here, but one notion that is extremely popular (and even undergoing early tests in Finland) is the idea of technosocialism — that is, a universal basic income.
If we had machines to do all of the busy work for us, then ideally we would have time to pursue creative interests and have enough revenue to be distributed evenly amongst all citizens. Of course, this theory is hopelessly idealistic. How exactly income will be distributed is an unanswered economic question. Add to that the more philosophical question of whether or not people will be satisfied with pure leisure. Is not hardship a primary motivator of work, art and life?
Whether we have a universal basic income or not, young men and women (and robots!) will fret over finding work and making ends meet, as they have for millennia; it’s a tale as old as time. So what kind of jobs should they be preparing for? The answer seems simple — creative jobs. Jobs that utilize their very humanness, that utilize the subjectivity of the human experience. As technology moves forward, it’s easy to feel like it is destroying and threatening the human world, and the things in our society that we feel define us. But, it doesn’t have to be that way.
We can also imagine that as technology advances it actually frees us of the work that is on the level of the machine, that requires little creativity, ingenuity or soul. In a brighter future, technology could be the force that frees us of unnecessary burdens, and lets us realize the most human functions of being.
Imagine that.
How do you think advances in artificial intelligence will impact our future? Should we get ready for a horrific economic disaster where the majority of people are left jobless? Or can we look forward to an era of technosocialism, where many of us might enjoy the leisure of pursuing our greatest interests?
We’d love to hear from you, so please comment and share your ideas with us!
This article is based on Martin Lumiste´s speech at Robotex, Europe’s largest robotics competition. Martin Lumiste is a Data Scientist at Proekspert. Our area of expertise is smart devices and robotics, we are keen to contemplate the issues connected with the future development of these areas.
