Paris 2024 Olympic Women’s Football Preview
Gold medalists Canada look to repeat while regional rivals USA begin a new era with one of the world’s great coaches.
It’s no great surprise, given the participation of senior internationals, that the women’s football tournament at the Olympic Games often carries a dash of extra intrigue compared to it’s male counterpart, but the 2024 edition figures to be one of the most captivating women’s tournaments to date. Included in the mix are the defending champions (Canada), the hosts in search of their first major trophy (France), the reigning champions of the World Cup (Spain), the holders of the Copa América and the United States who will look to make their sixth appearance in the competition’s 8th gold-medal match after missing out in Rio and Tokyo. Toss in one of the best young stars in the game plus other former World and Olympic winning nations, and you’ve got the recipe for a perfect tournament. Let’s dive into how each group will shape up and try to separate the contenders for a medal from the pretenders.
Group A: Canada, Colombia, France, New Zealand
Player to Watch: Adriana Leon, Canada
Replacing Christine Sinclair was never going to be a feasible task for any one player, but the Aston Villa winger has done an exceptional job of carrying a big portion of the goal-scoring burden as the game’s all-time leading scorer reduced her role and eventually retired at the tail end of 2023. In 2024, Leon has appeared 9 times for Canada and scored or set up a goal every 63 minutes. Some of that production, like her hat trick against Paraguay at the Gold Cup in February, is against weaker opponents, but she’s also scored three goals already against the US in 2024 — including late equalizers in both the Gold Cup semifinal and the SheBelieves Cup final. This group figures to be a tight one and goal-scorers have a way of tipping the scales in the favor of their team. Whether from the penalty spot or out of open play, Leon has to be one of the favorites to hit the back of the net for Canada — with her goal against Ireland representing her nation’s only score in last summer’s disappointing group-stage exit at the World Cup.
Biggest Question: Can France finally claim long-awaited silverware?
The French haven’t always been a realistic contender to lift international silverware in the women’s game, but they’ve been good enough for long enough that you would’ve expected them to claim something by now. From mismanagement and mistreatment of players to untimely injuries (like the one Marie-Antoinette Katoto suffered at Euro 2022 which cost the French dearly at that tournament and last year’s World Cup), luck has never fallen in Les Bleues’ favor — with that dash of good fortune just as important in winning these types of tournaments as game-breaking talents like Katoto or Louisa Nécib are. Yet, after reaching the knockout stages in every event they’ve participated in (they missed the Tokyo Games) for nearly 15 years, it seems as though the stars may finally align for the French as they prepare to host a second major tournament in the last half-decade. Katoto is fit and firing — missing out on the Champions League golden boot only because of the exceptional form of (current national and onetime club) teammate Kadi Diani. The midfield and defense are stocked full of experienced veterans (Grace Geyoro, Wendie Renard, etc.) and the next generation of stars like Sandy Baltimore. All the while, Hervé Renard has brought much-needed stability to a coaching position that was once a great source of discontent for the playing personnel. Lots more luck will be needed to claim gold, but there’s no lack of experience or quality in this French squad.
Predicted Standings: France, Canada, Colombia, New Zealand
I, regrettably, haven’t mentioned Linda Caicedo’s name to this point though I expect her and her Colombian teammates to make a strong account of themselves once again. That said, the cards fell favorably for them in last year’s World Cup, and I expect Canada to be extremely motivated by their own struggles at that tournament — giving the defending champions a slight edge in the race for second.
Group B: Australia, Germany, United States, Zambia
Player to Watch: Steph Catley, Australia
After serving as a talented but oft-underrated player for much of her career, Catley’s level of play in recent seasons — both for the Matildas and for club side Arsenal — has made her too good to ignore. In a team that’s seen it’s captain and leading goal-scorer once again bitten by the injury bug, Catley somehow helps fill both roles despite playing in defense. In 126 appearances with the national team, Catley has scored just five times, but she came up with two timely goals from the penalty spot in last year’s home World Cup and has already registered 3 assists in 5 caps in 2024. For a team that will look to piece together goals from multiple sources in Sam Kerr’s absence, goal contributions of any kind are valuable ones. At the same time, Catley contributes to everything else the team does to be successful by serving as a key part of the defense, helping push play forward into the attacking third from the wide areas and acting as one of the team’s key leaders and interim captain. Without Kerr, the task of going deep in this tournament is more difficult, but Catley and company found ways to win last year in her absence and have every chance to do so again in Paris.
Biggest Question: How quickly can Emma Hayes win with the USA?
If I were to list the best managers in world football, I’d probably place Hayes in a tier above virtually everyone else — with only Manchester City men’s boss Pep Guardiola in the same stratosphere. Yet, one shortcoming of Hayes’ incredibly decorated tenure at Chelsea was that her teams never lifted the Champions League trophy. In much the same way Guardiola got flack for his failure to lift the trophy for over a decade before City’s win last year, Hayes’ failure to claim the biggest prize in European football raises questions about how her style translates to tournament football — with its unpredictabilities and randomness. Now, don’t get me wrong: the questions are stupid. Just as Pep won 9 cups during his UCL drought, Hayes won 7 of the English cups during her time at Chelsea (and reached a Champions League final). In other words, she’s more than capable of having loads of success managing tournament football. That said, there is also an element of unpredictability that comes with working exclusively in tournament play that may be difficult for Hayes (who so often had the WSL title at minimum to show for her seasons in England) to stomach in the early going. National teams in the women’s game feel less disjointed than the men’s counterparts because of the high-volume of games these players play together (though that gap is closing quickly with the rise of the women’s club game), and that continuity and chemistry in the US camp should make it easier for Hayes to settle. When she eventually does get things figured out, the results are likely to be plentiful. Hayes’ style and influence won’t produce as predictable or easily replicable success as they did during long league seasons at the club level, but she’s not the best coach in the world for nothing either. Taking on a challenge as big as the US job — which necessitates a move and change in lifestyle for Hayes’ family — tells you that she’s still full of motivation, and the big question at this tournament is how quickly we’ll see the impact of what the 16-time trophy winner brings to the table in action.
Predicted Standings: United States, Australia, Germany, Zambia
The Germans wound up as one of the great disappointments of last year’s World Cup after their opening demolition of Morocco and now have much to prove in Paris. They haven’t been hugely tested in the qualifying group for the Euros and Australia, despite no longer having home-field support, should fancy their chances to progress. Hayes and the US will need time to hit full stride but still have enough talent to top this group. Zambia, for all their progress, are likely punching above their weight class in this group.
Group C: Brazil, Japan, Nigeria, Spain
Player to Watch: Kerolin, Brazil
After scoring 5 times in her first 7 caps with the Seleção, Kerolin will enter the Olympic opener against Nigeria on July 25th having gone 28 caps and 968 days without scoring for her country. Even more strikingly, the former Palmeiras forward will have gone 285 days without playing any competitive football (barring an unexpected appearance in a pre-tournament friendly) after tearing her ACL at the tail-end of the 2023 NWSL season. And while I’ll never criticize a player for wanting to represent their country, returning to the field with little prep in games of this standard seems a big ask. In any case, Arthur Elias and Brazil stand to gain if the twenty-four-year-old can play to even a fraction of the standard she achieved during her MVP season last year with North Carolina. Those standout performances have also been key in Brazil’s past successes — in spite of her long drought without a goal in the country’s famous yellow kit. After playing a key role in the 2022 Copa América winning side, Kerolin was one of the standouts of Brazil’s heroic effort in the Finalissima loss to England and performed well at the World Cup despite Brazil’s early exit. In a group that’s incredibly deep but also open for anyone to advance from, she could be the player that makes the difference — even if it’s unrealistic to expect her anywhere near full fitness.
Biggest Question: Will the real Spain and Japan please stand up?
If you cast your mind back 12 months, you’ll almost certainly remember the Spanish lifting the World Cup. You might even remember that Spain and this Japan side, silver medallists in London, were drawn in the same group. What you probably don’t remember is how Japan, who eventually lost in the quarterfinals to Sweden, battered the eventual winners 4–0 on the final day of the group stage. The win capped off a nearly flawless run in the group for Japan, but a ruthless performance by the Swedes (who failed to qualify for the Games for the first time ever) in front of goal was enough to send them home. And in truth, that’s tournament football. So, whatever we think about the individuals in Spain or Japan’s squad, the unpredictable nature of the sport means things will likely pan out much differently. That said, both squads look strong. Aitana Bonmatí is likely still the best in the world and Salma Paralluelo has only further kicked on after her incredible World Cup while Japan have standout players scattered across the globe in the UK (Yui Hasegawa and Hinata Miyazawa), Italy (Saki Kumagai) and of course domestically (Ayaka Yamashita). The question isn’t whether these teams are strong; they definitely are. Instead, the question is who’s better after the stark contrast between the head-to-head meeting and the final result in Australia. We‘ll get that answer early as the teams meet on the opening day of the tournament, but both figure to be medal contenders on the final weekend of the Games if they’re able to survive this brutal group.
Predicted Standings: Spain, Japan, Nigeria, Brazil
When a team as talented as Spain is playing with a point to prove, it’s usually a bad sign for their competition. They won’t have taken the 4–0 loss lightly (though the eventual World Cup title made it an afterthought) and will have a point to prove on matchday one. Even then, Japan could wind up topping the group as Nigeria and Brazil are both good enough to take points off of the presumed favorites. This group will be chaotic (and fun!), but the two best and most experienced teams still look likely to survive.
