What Will Trump’s National Security Strategy Look Like?
The National Security Strategy is a periodic document provided by the White House encapsulating what it views as the most salient national security challenges the United States faces and how the United States Government will seek to tackle them. The National Security Act of 1947, which created the Department of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency, requires that the President periodically provide this document to Congress. It is essentially a “30,000 feet” view of the foreign policy and national security goals of the United States, providing the ambiguity necessary to adapt to the changing global security environment. The Trump Administration will likely release their own National Security Strategy in the Spring when they submit their annual budget to Congress. But what is this document and why is it so important?
Origins of the National Security Strategy
The Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986, which instituted comprehensive reforms in the Department of Defense, amended Title I of the National Security Act of 1947, providing more detail on the scope of National Security Strategy. These amendments are specified in Public Law 99–433, “Annual National Security Strategy Report,” which provide specific details on what is to be provided in the National Security Strategy. According to Public Law 99–433, the National Security Strategy is supposed to be provided to Congress at the same time the annual budget is to be submitted. The Trump Administration could provide the National Security Strategy as early as this Spring. Next, we can look to the text inside the Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986, which codifies the requirements of the National Security Strategy.
In the National Security Strategy, the White House is mandated under the Goldwater-Nichols Act to include three vital components. The first being “the worldwide interests, goals, and objectives of the United States that are vital to the national security of the United States.” Second, “the foreign policy, worldwide commitments, and national defense capabilities of the United States necessary to deter aggression and implement the national security strategy of the United States.” Lastly, it details the “short-term and long-term uses of the political, economic, military, and other elements of the national power of the United States to accomplish these goals.” In short, this seems similar to a “grand strategy,” of the United States, which can be defined as the prioritized goals and interests of the United States and the various military and non-military capabilities to accomplish them.
Trump’s National Security Strategy: A Focus on Threats
What will the Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy look like and how will it differ from documents in previous administrations? It will likely increase its focus from the 2015 National Security Strategy on counterterrorism and border security, while decreasing its scope on non-military issues such as climate change, international development, human rights, and humanitarian aid. Defeating ISIL will likely be the top priority, which will likely stress bringing stability and security to northern Iraq and Syria. Border security a close second, with the border wall a prominent feature of the National Security Strategy. Other priorities will involve China’s increased military presence in the South China Sea, North Korea’s ballistic missile program, and cybersecurity for critical infrastructure, involving efforts from the Department of Energy and the Department of Homeland Security. Threats will largely define the priorities of this new strategy and how we will deal with these threats will likely be strongly emphasized in the introduction. But where it will most deviate from previous strategy documents is from our commitment to collaborative security to a new strategy defined as “America First.”
Trump’s National Security Strategy: The America First Doctrine
The Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy will likely provide necessary detail on the “America First” doctrine, while providing examples of actions used to implement it. This will likely involve renegotiating long standing economic and defense treaties, and turning from guaranteed collaborative security to a “transactional” approach. For example, Trump has already said that he will soon meet with the leaders of Mexico and Canada to renegotiate NAFTA. The National Security Strategy could also provide more clarity on whether Trump will attempt to redefine the United States’ role in NATO and whether it will directly challenge the One China Policy, a foreign policy that has been used since the Nixon Administration so that the United States could formally establish foreign relations with China. Other specific examples may include the decision to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which will likely be seen as a direct challenge to the Two State Solution. In addition, the “America First” strategy will include initiatives to improve the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure, such as power plants, telecommunication systems, financial services, and water. In the Obama Administration’s 2015 National Security Strategy, cybersecurity for critical infrastructure is not emphasized, but after several damaging cyber attacks both in the United States and abroad, cybersecurity will gain more attention and focus, particularly in coordination with the private sector and sector specific agencies to develop policies and frameworks for evaluation, training, information sharing, preparedness, and incident response.
Trump’s National Security Strategy: The Wall & Immigration
Also, he promised during his campaign to build a vast wall along the 2,000 mile border the United States shares with Mexico to deter crime and illegal immigration. In addition to delivering upon his campaign promise, it can be expected that the National Security Strategy will also include strengthening Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement by expanding the number of agents and investing in new technologies in surveillance and detection. It can also be expected that he will institute a visa ban from “countries of interest” from which the Trump Administration believes breed terrorism. Visa bans will likely be instituted against people from Iran, Afghanistan, and Syria. What will likely not be included are visa bans to Turkey, a primary point of entry from which foreign fighters begin their fight with ISIL, Pakistan, a state sponsor of terrorism, and Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, which Osama bin Laden, the 9/11 hijackers, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi respectively once called home.
Trump’s National Security Strategy: The Forgotten War
What will likely be seen as low priority is the continued US mission in Afghanistan. The United States still has 8,400 troops in Afghanistan providing intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance support in addition its mission to equip and train the Afghan National Security Forces. Little is known about what Trump believes about Afghanistan, and he may only restate America’s commitment to the existing amount of troops deployed there.
Trump’s National Security Strategy: No Climate Change or “Fuzzy Stuff.”
But what will be left out entirely will be any commitments or initiatives related to climate change, human rights, international development, humanitarian aid, or global health. The Trump Administration has taken down several pages on the White House website on climate change, womens’ rights, and LBGT rights, and it can be expected that the National Security Strategy will also omit these issues. We will likely only see in the National Security Strategy a commitment to interventions where US national security and its interests abroad are at stake as “America First” is clearly defined.
Trump’s National Security Strategy: What About Russia?
It is unsure whether Russian military aggression will be seen as a threat to US allies or the United States itself. The Trump National Security Strategy may provide extremely vague language on Russia to provide the maximum amount of room to increase diplomatic ties. The FY2017 Department of Defense budget quadrupled the funding for the European Reassurance Initiative to $3.4 billion, and former President Obama before he left office sent a contingent of Marines to Norway in support of the Initiative. Where the Obama Administration stressed deterrence, the Trump Administration may move towards detente, which may not be viewed favorably by our Eastern European NATO allies who are incredibly nervous about Russian cyber attacks and possible Russian military incursions, particularly the Baltic states and European countries who will soon have elections. Common interests to defeat Islamist militant terrorism will likely become the issue that the Trump Administration seeks to leverage to improve relations and ease hostilities with the Putin government.
Trump’s National Security Strategy: Building Offensive Capabilities
Another component of the National Security Strategy will likely be the Trump Administration’s view that the military has been weakened by previous administrations both in terms of size and readiness. Initiatives to increase the amount of naval ships, increasing and modernizing our nuclear arsenal, and increasing the amount of US military personnel will likely be important parts of the strategy. Cybersecurity will also likely be a key component, particularly in developing tools to expand the network effects of kinetic operations conducted by the U.S. military, particularly in offensive operations against command-and-control systems and the critical infrastructure of foreign adversaries.
What also will likely be emphasized is protection from missile attacks from North Korea against the United States and its allies in East Asia. THAAD systems could be deployed the South Korea and Japan, despite protests from the Chinese government who view ballistic missile defense programs as a threat to their strategic nuclear capabilities.
We will soon see through Trump’s National Security Strategy how he views the global security environment, and how he intends to transform US foreign policy. It will significant deviate from previous National Security Strategy documents, emphasizing that America’s interests are the top priority, that relationships with our allies will shift from a collaborative effort towards international security towards transactional relationships, and that the United States is no longer willing to embrace strategies that do not emphasize America’s status as the world’s largest and most capable military superpower.
