The Rule 4 Draft — Draft Order
The creatively named Rule 4 first-year player draft is how most players enter professional baseball. It is actually defined by Rule 4 in the Major League Rules, not the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The Major League Rules are a roughly 250 page set of rules and attachments that define things like schedules, travel, waivers, minor leagues, and more. It is different from the on-field rule book. One key component of the draft rules is the draft order.
The draft order is set using the reverse order of the standings as determined by winning percentage. This helps to add competitive balance by giving the worst teams higher picks as well as a higher draft pool. Each pick in the first 10 rounds has a recommended bonus amount that teams aggregate into their draft pool and can spend as they see fit with certain restrictions. In 2021, the Pirates had the first overall pick with a slot value of $8,415,300. The Dodgers had the final pick in the first round and were allocated just $2,424,600. The Pirates had the highest overall draft pool at $14,394,00, whereas the Dodgers had just $4,646,700 to spend.
The problem with this is there is a large incentive for a non-competitive team to be as bad as possible, sometimes referred to as tanking. The Orioles have just a .317 winning percentage as of September 16th and have been near the bottom of the standings for the last three seasons.
The idea of competitive balance is great, but incentivizing a race to the bottom is bad for baseball for a number of reasons. The first reason is the product on the field is not enjoyable to watch. I have written a lot about fan engagement, and I can guarantee that Orioles fans are not engaged. The second is these non-competitive teams affect a lot of other playoff races. The Orioles are 1–18 against the Tampa Bay Rays this season. That is 12% of the Rays schedule against this lowly team. Lastly, the Orioles are choosing to pay younger players minimal salaries as opposed to veterans that are better and may cost a bit more.
This is an important point for the Players Association (PA). While the draft order is not collectively bargained outside of the qualifying offer and compensation picks, the PA should demand that the clubs choose to pay the best players. The Baltimore Orioles are costing the players money.
I don’t fault the team for this strategy. This really could be the Orioles best path in an uber-competitive AL East. The fact is teams will use the rules to best help them win, both in the short-term and the long-term.
So what can we do to reduce this issue?
A lottery to set the draft order for the top-8 picks in the first round would be a disincentive to completely tank. This should be an evenly distributed lottery as opposed to the NBA model. In that model, there is still a very large incentive to be in the bottom 3 teams.
I’d also recommend that the top 8 picks are tradable with a few stipulations.
- The draft order must be set a week before the draft. No trades after that.
- There should be no conditional trades that happen at a later date.
- Other draft picks can be included in trades that involve these 8 picks.
This will create another interesting wrinkle for the fan and should help teams better allocate their resources. Overall, baseball will be a more enjoyable product to watch on an annual basis.
