2007: How Microsoft launches the Linux Revolution

As I’m sure most have seen, Vista has launched with a less-than-$500-million result. In my home Chicago, I’ve been hearing about all sorts of midnight store openings with very poor turnout. There just seems to not be much enthusiasm about it. But there’s something else that occurred to me this week: Microsoft has just done more for Linux than the community ever could have. Here’s my reasoning:

Windows XP, for all practical purposes, is the most preferred OS in existence. Note that I’m not saying superior, it’s just that if you consider third party software, device support, existing hardware, general level of understanding by the population, and existing install base, XP is the ideal operating system, because it created the environment around itself. It’s been like this forever with software, or even business, for that matter. Get a product into widespread adoption, and you can basically define the environment around it. In this sense, XP had it made. They could easily have kept rolling out service packs, and let people get on with their lives.

Then they threw it away. Sure, some will move to Vista, simply on the reputation of XP. But here are a few observations that I think will prove to make the switch much more difficult:

• Read the blogs from this week on Vista. Device support is horrendous. Even new computers sporting the ‘ready for vista’ stickers are having issues getting drivers. That’s a deal-breaker. You can’t invalidate someone’s investment in their machine’s components.
• The hardware requirements are ridiculous. Think about it: besides the typical computer-saavy person (think: your parents), what is the average machine out there? 1Ghz, on 512MB of RAM, if you’re lucky? With onboard video on some Best Buy special from 2004, that came with a free printer and a 17" CRT? You think someone’s going to be happy with the performance after spending the cash to upgrade — not to mention that the upgrade EULA is worded in a way that cancels their XP licensing? I doubt anyone in this group is going to make the investments needed for Vista to do what they do, which is go on the internet and use a word processor. Which brings up…
• What does Vista offer these people? Faster load times, yes, but for half the cash you could quadruple the RAM in some of these people’s machines as well.

So here’s what it comes down to. All the balls are back in the air, and in the next year or so people will have to start making a decision what their next OS will be. Check out the problems #1 and 3 listed above, these difficulties sound familiar? It’s Linux, circa 2002. And there’s the rub. Linux has come a long way since then, and it’s breaking into a level of usability that is considered usable by our target group. Indeed, put someone in front of Ubuntu these days, and they’ll be happy.

So, what, throw away XP? In a word, sure. For most people. If you can get someone in the target group to use Linux and see how usable it is, and get their printer working, it shouldn’t be a problem. Gaming development dollars will follow wherever the userbase is, just look at the history of the console industry. Driver development is getting hot as well.

Microsoft has put itself in a position where all of its strengths in XP (in terms of driver support and hardware requirements) are know knocked down to a level where Linux can compete with the new Vista. They already had the championship belt, but chose to tie one arm back on Vista and send it back into the ring…and the competitors are much stronger than last time. Sociologically, this is the worst time to do this, as emphasis gets stronger on a daily basis to do what you feel is best for yourself, and deciding not to tie yourself to any limiting arrangements. We’ve seen this with Firefox.

All in all, things are getting very interesting, and it will be even more interesting to see what happens on the new playing field, which is now as level as it has ever been.