New Year

Welcome back from your holidays and to a new year … one of many we observe each year! Ugadi, Vishu, 2017, etc. depending on the calendar we use. This year is going to be geographically interesting in many ways. Here are some examples.

USA

A Republican (conservative) of rather extreme and often unsubstantiated views has been elected to be President of the USA. Many Americans are given to calling their president “the leader of the free world.” This is a weird and exaggerated view of their country on the world stage. It would be, for any country.

This is because we now live in a world where there is no one “super power.” Instead we have a mix of powers in different aspects. Countries exert power through military, political, economic, and other means.

Conflicts raging in Syria and the “Middle East” in general are drawing a lot of energy from the USA. Meanwhile, China is building new islands in the South China Sea and has installed military bases on them. The Chinese claim that the USA is encircling them with military bases in the Philippines, Japan, and several Pacific Islands.

On the continental side, USA has military presence in parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It counts India as a defence partner. India, too, is looking to create structures to keep China in check. This is called “containment” in political geographical terms.

The USA has not paid enough attention to Africa so far. This brings us to China’s strategic moves.

China

China’s influence in Africa is increasing — especially in Africa south of the Sahara — called Sub-Saharan Africa. China is investing heavily in building railroads, roadways, and other infrastructure. These investments are giving it a physical presence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with the financial investments, China gets a lot of political influence. If and when the USA wakes up to the importance of Sub-Saharan Africa, they will have to contend with China’s already established power there.

In South Asia, China is trying to create a powerful presence by investing in infrastructure in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangla Desh. With Paksitan, China is also openly cooperating to build nuclear capabilities (they say it is for non-military purposes, but since when do we believe that?).

Apart from all this, China is also constantly ‘needling’ India in several ways: blocking India’s attempt to become a member of the United Nations Security Council, refusing to allow the UN to declare known terrorist as a terrorist, frequently entering Indian territory in Karakoram and Arunachal Pradesh, issuing “illegal” visas for Kashmiri separatists on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control in Jammu & Kashmir, and so on.

UK

The UK is going through its own problems that have international dimensions. In a referendum on 24 June 2016, Britons voted to exit the European Union (EU). The EU is a supranational organization with many continental European countries as members. Britain’s exit from the EU — popularly called Brexit — has been extremely controversial. The vote has been cast, but the process of actually resigning from the EU membership is proving to be much more complicated than supporters had thought.

For example: how will EU citizens who are not British citizens travel to the UK, live there, work there, etc.? What will be the status of British citizens who are not citizens of any of the other EU member countries? How will they travel to other EU countries, live there, work there, etc.?

How will multinational corporations (MNCs) operate in the EU and Britain? Some companies have already said they will move out of the UK.

How will an actual exit from the EU affect the UK’s economy?

Meanwhile, there are all those thousands of refugees washing up on the shores of southern Europe. Which country will take them? Under what conditions? How will they be accommodated in the UK’s economy and society? This is very tough when many people are expressing anti-immigrant feelings.

The USA and UK have long enjoyed a ‘special relationship’ — totally UK-USA bhai-bhai buddy-buddy lovey-dovey stuff. The incoming US president, Donald Trump is not clear about what will happen to this relationship.

Many Chinese oligarchs (wealthy people) are buying land and property in the UK, and China is likely to build a nuclear reactor for the UK on UK soil. The Chinese influence is increasing in the UK also.

A lot of unknowns, and a lot of anxiety.

India

Meanwhile, what is going on with India?

Well, India is trying to counter China’s moves in various ways. In Afghanistan, India is investing money in infrastructure (roads and such) development and military assistance. This support is aimed at keeping Pakistan from becoming more powerful in the region. China is supporting Pakistan so that Pakistan does not become weaker and India’s efforts are weakened.

India works hard to maintain its influence with its neighbors by investing in (and giving credit to) Bangla Desh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Maldives. India also cooperates with these countries militarily.

We now live in a world where, if India cancels a defence order with another country, hundreds of jobs could be lost in that country!

Meanwhile, a large number of highly skilled technical jobs in USA and UK are going to non-native persons — they are immigrants. A lot of people living in those countries resent this greatly. However, the primary education systems in those countries are not in great shape. The universities are. But a large number of the students at these universities are foreigners — including Chinese and Indian.

One of the high-value exports of India is hugely talented labour.

However, as anti-immigrant sentiments and policies increase in both the USA and UK, there may be fewer opportunities for Indians and Chinese graduates and other high-skilled workers.

Will they be able to find acceptable jobs in their own countries? In India, the economic growth will have to be able to offer them opportunities for a wide variety of people — in every sector of the economy (remember them in your textbook? Primary, secondary, tertiary …).

This is going to be a very tough year for a lot of us!

Featured image, courtesy: NASA

A version of this article appears in the Deccan Herald Student Edition on 05 January 2017

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