Two Tribes – The “Case Fatality Rate’ites” & the “IFR’ites”
I calculated the actual daily average Case Fatality Rate, globally.
It’s 21% (see https://lnkd.in/dJi7QA7) between 1 Apr & 11 May.
21% surprized me.
Some of us anchored into believing the “Infected Fatality Rate” (IFR) is “only” around 1% really resist this 21% figure & what it means.
The Infected Fatality Rates of around 1% that we often see quoted, sometimes by Covid sceptics, are estimates usually made in good faith.
IFR are based on inferred data.
The CFR is actual confirmed deaths divided by actual confirmed cases, as notified to the WHO by nation states.
Some have even ridiculed the CFR calculation!
That’s why I’ve posted the image of the data I used!
European Union’s Centre for Disease Control (https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html)
Some say that the CFR is not the “real” rate.
If “real” is the measure, then neither is the inferred IFR!
IFR & CFR both tell complicated stories.
In Hong Kong, where there seems to be a strong testing system, open data & a grip on the spread, the CFR & the IFR converge.
Not elsewhere: yesterday’s UK CFR was 29%.
“The “case fatality rate” in the U.K. is:
33,186 dead (official figures) 13 May
113,843 lab confirmed infections (official figures) 24th April
33,186 divided by 113,843 (average time between infection and death for those who die is 18 days)
=
a “case fatality rate” on 12th May 2020 of (drum roll):
29.15%
Remember these are official actually counted cases and deaths, not statistically arrived at presumptions”
Let’s not resist too strongly what the data tell us, even when it surprizes.
Which tribe are you in?
And why?
My previous Covid posts:
