What’s at Stake in the Supreme Court on October 31?

On October 31, the US Supreme Court will hear two cases that will determine the future of race-conscious affirmative action. The most likely outcome is that the court will decide to outlaw the consideration of race in college admissions.

There has long been disagreement about affirmative action’s merits and pitfalls from all across the political spectrum. What is indisputable, however, is that without race-conscious affirmative action in college admissions, it will be harder, if not impossible, for the nation’s selective colleges and universities to serve a student population that reflects the diversity of American society.

In a previous study, CEW tested the proposition that selective colleges can maintain current levels of racial diversity — which still leave Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino students significantly underrepresented — without considering race in admissions. Our models showed that it was theoretically possible to reach and even exceed the then-current levels of Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino representation by using geographic approaches like Texas’s ten percent plan in combination with class-based affirmative action. But such a result is not probable — accomplishing it would require selective colleges to recruit and enroll qualified students from underrepresented groups far more effectively than they do today.

Our models also showed that even with such unlikely improvements in recruitment and enrollment, Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino students would continue to be underrepresented in selective colleges relative to their representation among high school graduating classes. Trends in several states with affirmative action bans confirm what our research showed theoretically: racial diversity suffers without the ability to account for how racism affects people’s experiences.

In the coming months, we will publish new research on the path forward in the event of a national ban on race-conscious college admissions. For now, though, I want to reiterate a point that we have made time and again:

Race matters in America. Racism in this country is a shapeshifting scavenger, taking whatever form it can to justify its continued existence with the support of individuals and institutions in power. Despite at least a half-century of terribly incomplete progress, we are still a far cry from the day when race makes no difference in a young person’s formative experiences, including those that determine college opportunity.

Class matters too, but race and class are not the same thing. Racial disadvantage and class disadvantage often overlap, and they have the strongest impact in combination. Certainly, selective colleges should strive for class diversity along with racial diversity. But class disadvantage and racial disadvantage are distinct problems — with different roots and different impacts — and they require distinctive solutions.

Affirmative action was originally intended to compensate for the harms affecting the people most disadvantaged by our country’s long and still unresolved history of racism. We believe that the playing field for entry to selective colleges will be leveled when their student bodies mirror the demographics of the population. Race-conscious affirmative action in college admissions is just one tool to achieve progress toward this social goal, but it’s a tool for which we haven’t yet found a workable substitute.

The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce is a research and policy institute within Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy that studies the links among education, career qualifications, and workforce demands.

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