Week 2: Without tech problems, sign-ups at HealthCare.gov stabilize

Today, CMS released the number of people who signed up for health coverage during Week 2 of Open Enrollment at HealthCare.gov. During Week 2, 754,967 people signed up — a 6% decrease compared to last year’s Week 2. Cumulatively, 932,049 people have signed up for coverage through HealthCare.gov this year.

Unlike Week 1, Week 2 is the first full week of enrollment this year and our first real indication of enrollment performance for this Open Enrollment. 558,962 people renewed coverage during Week 2 (10% decrease compared to Week 2 last year) and 196,005 signed up who didn’t previously have Marketplace coverage (6% increase compared to Week 2 last year). The decrease in renewal activity is concerning, but the increase in new enrollment is promising. In either case, it’s too soon to draw conclusions.

While cumulative plan selections are down 21% compared to last year, this is to be expected. This year, reporting through the end of Week 2 includes nine days instead of ten. Major technical problems on Day 1 also reduced total sign-ups. But the fact that the number of people signing up for coverage during Week 2 this year is relatively similar to Week 2 last year suggests that early Open Enrollment signups at HealthCare.gov are stable.

Last week our analysis indicated that roughly 100,000 people were not able to enroll due to technical problems on the website. In the Week 2 report, we also see further confirmation of the scale of the Week 1 technical difficulties. During Week 2 this year, a similar percentage of people who came to the site actually selected a plan compared to the last year (29.3% this year vs 29.2% last year) unlike Week 1.

Furthermore, during Week 1 this year CuidadoDeSalud.gov website users had outpaced the previous year despite the shorter week. The Week 2 CuidadoDeSalud.gov website traffic this year is not nearly as high, indicating that the increased traffic during Week 1 was the result of people unable to get through at HealthCare.gov seeking an alternate pathway to enroll.

Even though this is our first full week, it is still too soon to predict how the remainder of Open Enrollment will play out. It’s likely that enrollment during Week 2 was slightly higher than normal as people who could not enroll last Friday returned to HealthCare.gov to try again. The first few weeks of enrollment are renewal-heavy and new enrollees are more likely to signup during the final week.