The Great Pilot Shortage of the 21st Century
Since the early days of the 21st century, rumours of a global pilot shortage have abounded, but a combination of terrorism concerns, retirement age extensions and the economic crisis seem to have prevented any shortage that might have been looming from actually developing, at least in the Western hemisphere. A quick canvass across the commercial aviation profession offers up plenty of jaded aircrew willing to bet their pension that the promised shortage will never arrive.
To try to untangle exactly what’s going on, we need to tackle the topic one vested interest at a time.
Are we short of pilots?
The airline industry contracted sharply in the wake of the World Trade Centre attack in 2001. Demand for air travel reduced in the aftermath, while at the same time regulation became ever tighter and fuel prices rose continually. Many airlines went out of business, and those that remained only survived by either taking huge losses or shedding every ounce of spare fat that they could.
Following this low point, the credit crisis erupted and the retirement age of airline pilots was extended from 60 to 65, which delayed any requirement for a surge of captains. Throughout this period, the East Asian economies continued to grow, and with air travel in demand, the market there remained good. Demand in this region accounts for much of the evidence supporting a forthcoming shortage of pilots.
Demand for pilots from the Asian region will not be exclusively met internally, so it is likely that any job opportunities as a result of the shortage will be in that part of the world. Moreover, the pinch will be felt first in the left hand seat, as captains reach retirement. It makes sense that senior first officers will move across the cockpit, but it is more likely that junior FO places will be predominantly filled by the scores of type-rated pilots currently not occupying cockpits, leaving little opportunity for those fresh out of the box with a frozen ATPL.
But what about all the recruiting?
Any internet search on this topic is bound to throw up at least one article about how companies like CTC are preparing for the forthcoming shortage. This Telegraph Article/CTC Press Release (the two terms really are interchangeable in this context) warns that 235,000 more pilots are required in the next seven years, and CTC are embarking on their biggest ever recruiting drive as a result.
Most of you will know that CTC are not an airline; while they do have good links with many airlines, they are a flight training organisation. A search of their job vacancies on 7 Jan 2014 revealed that they are currently recruiting…for simulator engineers.
What companies like CTC are doing is marketing. Selling, touting, call it what you may, they certainly are not recruiting pilots in any great numbers; they are trying to sell prospective pilots a training course costing in excess of £100,000. For most prospective pilots, this means securing a loan against a parent’s house, and although you will be reimbursed around £70k if you fail the course, there is no compensation if you fail to find employment in the volatile aviation sector once you finish.
The Airline Angle
To offset the £100,000+ price tag (for training hours that are achievable elsewhere for half that) there is a benefit; CTC are the preferred training provider for several highly regarded airlines. They maintain that the vast majority of their graduates find work with airlines, and in a marketplace that is awash with pilots, this is a big bonus. They don’t mention how long it takes for their graduates to be placed, though. Or what jobs they do while they repay their gargantuan debt, but the statistics are hard to argue with; a great deal of airline jobs in reputable companies with good pay and benefits go to graduates of companies like CTC. This is one aspect of the deal that certainly sweetens the pill.
The airlines are content, too. They get a consistent, known-quantity input standard for their right hand seats, at an age young enough for them to imprint their own corporate ideology (integrated training is by far the quickest way to become a commercial pilot), but this is where the sweet pill starts to sour.
The airlines are awash with frozen ATPL students from companies like CTC, who have gone to great lengths to ensure that they are producing graduates to the same standard. For those not being ‘sponsored’ by a partner airline scheme such as the BA Future Pilot Program (we’ll get to them later) this means that they graduate knowing full well that there is little to distinguish them from their erstwhile class-mates, leaving them somewhat vulnerable to the suggestion that in order to stand out, they might like to get (pay for) a type-rating, or perhaps pay for some of their line training…
The bottom line
It’s easy to see how maintaining the status quo works well for both parties involved. Flying is still viewed as at least a little glamorous, and the job of a pilot still conjures up mental images of a bygone era of dashing pioneers earning rock-star wages travelling to glitzy locations and enjoying the social status of having a profession that not only demands precision and skill, but is also slightly dangerous too. Nowadays (mostly for the better) these are misconceptions, but there are still plenty of young, aspirational people who dream of flying for a living and whose parents own a big enough house to guarantee the cost of training. Their only concern is that they will be employed as pilots once they have trained, and the mere suggestion of a forthcoming global shortage of pilots has been enough to convince thousands to literally re-mortgage their (parents’) homes to fund their life’s ambition.
It takes only a very basic understanding of the principles of supply and demand to realise that for the airlines, struggling against rising overheads and stiff competition, the more pilots there are on the market the better. Once they’ve dropped £100k+ on training, loss aversion kicks in and the thought of a further £28k for type ratings and line training seems like a drop in the ocean. Even better, the airlines know that even with all that debt, the views, the opportunities to travel, the responsibility of living the dream and the sheer elation of having ‘made it’ will guarantee that those airline pilots will recommend the job in an instant, paving the way for the next generation.
A knock-on effect of this phenomenon is that large, highly reputable flag-carrying airlines no longer need to finance their trainee pilots. Schemes like British Airways’ Future Pilot Program can enforce rigorous selection criteria based purely on guaranteeing the loan required, and the not-quite promise of a job at the end (if a job isn’t available, BA generously promise to keep you fully up to date with the situation).
So what?
For its part, the airline pilots’ union BALPA has started to tackle some of the symptoms, such as pilots on zero-hour contracts and low pay, but as a union they are limited by bureaucracy and I think to a certain extent fail to see the root causes of the malaise. But many will read this and think ‘so what’?
Companies like CTC are growing and the airlines are still able to take club 18–30 to Ibiza for under twenty quid, all of which is good for the economy. In a free market should we not be prepared for the value of skills to fluctuate in a similar way to commodities? Doesn’t the competitive nature of the situation dictate that the airlines, and ultimately their passengers, are getting the best value for money? After all, the passengers cast their votes with their feet and most seem happy to travel on the cheapest carriers, comfortable in the knowledge that their safety is assured. But I wonder how many would feel so assured, upon arriving for a — heaven forbid life-saving — operation, to be told “don’t worry, we only employ surgeons who could afford to pay for their own training.”
