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Bitcoin has jumped 7% over the past week, finishing July with a bullish flourish that could signal the end of a multi-month decline.

Across the market, cryptoassets are flashing double-digit weekly returns. Ethereum has doubled Bitcoin’s gains by adding 14% ahead of the EIP-1559 upgrade en route to Ethereum 2.0, XRP has risen 15% on freshly signed partnerships, and the release of a new roadmap has helped so-called “Ethereum killer” NEO soar 36%.

In an explosive market recovery, Bitcoin has blasted past $38K to make over 25% weekly gains.

The bearish mood began to shift on Wednesday, when Elon Musk appeared at the “The B Word” conference and made clear that he has not lost his affection for Bitcoin. Then on Friday, news that Amazon is hiring a blockchain expert helped push prices even higher.

Focus: Our sector investment playbook

Under the hood of the US equity strength this year we have seen a lot of movement between sectors. We see the current opportunity in those benefiting most from strong GDP growth — namely industrials, commodities, and financials. They are also cheap and under-owned. But Tech remains the foundation of any portfolio, with still strong growth, high margins, and fortress balance sheets. Defensives, like utilities and consumer staples, are on the radar for later in this economic cycle rather than now.

Markets shaken not stirred

US equities rose 2% last week, recovering from sharp weakness

A summer lull has descended on the digital asset market, as Bitcoin struggles to find clear direction amidst an ample supply of both bullish and bearish headlines.

Visa said on Wednesday that more than $1 billion worth of crypto has been spent using their crypto cards in the first six months of the year, Bank of America revealed the creation of a new team dedicated to crypto, and two new crypto companies — Circle and Bullish — announced plans to go public. …

Focus: Why bother investing outside the US?

The sheer dominance of US equities, at 58% of global markets vs only 8% of listed companies is remarkable, and puts a big focus on diversifying internationally, for a broader opportunity set, returns, lower valuations, and diversification. US equities have never been the best performing major market in any recent year, despite their very strong performance. International investing carries specific risks, from currency to corporate governance, and macro risks. See @GlobalETF or @AsianDragons for the long term.

Growth ‘scare’ intensifies and goes global

Global equities rose 0.9% last week, even as GDP growth…

As Ethereum has pushed almost 10% higher this week, Bitcoin has drifted sideways on mixed headlines.

The Chinese clampdown on mining continues to drive uncertainty in the market, along with the ramp up of regulatory discussion in the U.S. Yet this is matched by equal amounts of positive news, with Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Mining Council finding the cryptoasset to be more sustainable than often thought, and institutional giants Soros Fund Management and Point72 entering the fray.

Focus: Big Tech in the spotlight

The gathering regulatory storm clouds against the ‘big tech’ sector are back in the headlines. The so-called FAANGs, from Facebook (FB) to Alphabet (GOOGL) are 20% of the US market so it matters for all. It will be a long and complex process, and we see much as already discounted in valuations. Counter-intuitively any eventual worst-case remedies could be positive. We prefer cyclicals right now, but see big tech as better-supported-than-feared, with still strong growth, balance sheets and cash-return policies. See @Four-Horsemen.

A strong June ends a strong first half

Global equities rose 0.4%…

Bitcoin is bouncing towards $35K, after a storm of volatility sent the crypto asset down to its lowest point in nearly five months.

While enforcement in China and a Bitcoin heist in South Africa have added to the uncertainty pushing prices lower, the market is being supported tailwinds from the West: El Salvador president Nayib Bukele has revealed plans for a Bitcoin airdrop, and Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego has said his bank is working to be the first in Mexico to accept Bitcoin.

Value makes a strong comeback

  • Global equities rose +1% last week, taking YTD to +11.7%, as June PMI’s showed strong growth, led by Europe, whilst lower-than-expected US PCE inflation (Fed’s favored measure) eased price rise fears.
  • Energy (+7%) and financials (+5%) led the rebound, whilst ‘bond proxy’ utilities and real estate lagged, as yields inched higher. US markets led International. Commodities surged, and the USD stabilized.
  • Markets helped by US$1.2 trillion US infrastructure deal signs (but approval has a long way to go) and US bank ‘stress tests’ greenlighted 8–10% cash returns.
  • We make case for diversification, with the average…

Bitcoin has fallen 15% over the last week as the market weighs the impact of big shifts in the crypto ecosystem and broader macro environment.

On Wednesday, Fed chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged rising inflation, and responded by

bringing forward the timing of the next interest rate hike to 2023. This spooked stocks and crypto, with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin tumbling together for the remainder of the week.

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