Merely weeks after our big 4.1 update, we’re back at it again with Delta 4.2. The highlight of this release is our Conversion Tool, but there are some neat other additions as well. Read on!
The ‘everything’ rally continues
- The global equity rally resumed last week (+1.2%), boosted by strong growth data and earnings. This extended the ‘everything’ rally, with equities +10% YTD, commodities +20%, bitcoin +99%, and only global bonds -4%, and USD +0.3% lagging behind.
- Cyclical sectors and value themes, such as energy and financials, have led equity performance. We see this continuing given their cheaper valuations and stronger earnings leverage to the GDP recovery.
- The Q1 earnings season is winding down and has dramatically beaten expectations, with EPS in US +50% yoy, and Europe +80%. …
Ethereum and Litecoin have led the market higher this week, with prices roaring past $4K and $400 respectively.
As in previous weeks, altcoins have captured the most aggressive gains: Dogecoin finished the week up 20% after Elon Musk appeared on Saturday Night Live. Ethereum Classic tripled in value amidst a market-wide surge in smart contract platforms, while Uniswap was the exception, falling 4% on the lacklustre launch of Uniswap v3.
As the crypto market races back towards all-time highs, Ethereum is shooting ahead. The second-largest crypto has gained over 20% to top $3K for the first time.
Close behind, the altcoin market has been supercharged by Ethereum’s strength. Chainlink, XRP, and BNB are surging with double-digit weekly gains, and Uniswap has jumped 17% ahead of the Uniswap v3 launch on May 5th.
A strong April, but weaker seasonality ahead
- Global equities saw another healthy consolidation week. This closed a strong April, rising 3% led by the US (+4%), and the tech sector (+7%). Commodities also surged (+8%). The monthly laggards included US bonds (+0.6%), the USD (-2%), and Bitcoin (-4%).
- Equity seasonality is more difficult ahead, as we enter the lower volume summer months. The long term average S&P 500 November-April monthly return is 1.6%, more than double May-October 0.6%.
- We see lower but positive returns ahead, helped by a still under-estimated GDP and earnings recovery.
The crypto rollercoaster has taken another sharp turn, with Ethereum hitting all-time highs last Thursday just before Biden’s plans to hike capital gains tax triggered a sell-off across global markets.
Bitcoin plunged below $50K on the news, falling for five consecutive days before bouncing to $52K. Ethereum, on the other hand, managed to weather the storm and emerge with 13% weekly gains. It was joined by a few other resilient altcoins including Uniswap which rose 12%.
Taking a healthy performance breather
- Global equities took a healthy performance breather last week, easing 0.2%, and leaving up +8.9% YTD.
- Defensive sectors real estate and healthcare rose, whilst cyclicals energy and discretionary fell most.
- We think high valuations remain well supported by a still under-estimated GDP and earnings recovery.
- Our top-down investor sentiment index is very high, and normally a negative, showing a lack of potential new buyers. But bottom-up indicators show a much healthier situation, with the recent calming of prior high-flying segments, such as IPOs, EVs, and solar.
Good news as enter peak earnings week
- Q1 earnings…
Bitcoin and Ethereum surged to hit simultaneous all-time highs early last week, tapping $65K and $2.5K respectively as Litecoin rose above $300 for the first time in three years.
Yet the buying party came to an abrupt end when the highly-anticipated Coinbase listing failed to push prices even higher. Euphoria turned to fear as traders sold the news, prompting Bitcoin to plunge 15% before bouncing.
Wall Street hits double-digit return
- The S&P 500 is now up 11% so-far this year, and global equities are not far behind, up over 9%.
- Sectors in the weekly driving-seat were utilities (as bond yields fell) and materials (commodities rose).
- If sustained this would be a rare third straight year of double-digit S&P 500 returns. We have only seen this twice before since the 1970’s: the 5-year bull run into the 2000 tech bubble, and between 2012–14.
- With P/E valuations already high at 22x, versus a 10-year average 16x, the earnings outlook needs to keep improving to support this performance.
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While Bitcoin and Ethereum are resting at the key milestones of $60K and $2k respectively, smaller altcoins are darting ahead, pushing the total crypto market cap beyond $2 trillion for the first time.
BNB is the biggest winner of the week with 50% gains, making the market cap of the coin more than $60 billion, bigger than traditional banks including Santander. Close behind, other altcoins have also made big gains, with Zcash, Litecoin, and IOTA all boasting a 16% increase.
