Can Riot make TFT a Billion Dollar Game?

It is always great to have a super popular game that millions of players play regularly. It is even better when Player Trust in the Game Developer behind the popular game is very high. Riot has succeeded in building a brand that players trust to be fun without a lot of Free to Play (F2P) gimmicks or Pay to Win (P2W) systems. Yet their dedication to a cosmetics-only approach to monetization is a serious limiting factor on their long-term ability to monetize. TFT is an example of this limitation.

TFT currently shows $.43 Revenue per Download. This is a much smaller amount compared to many other RPGs and Strategy games out there.

Needless to say, TFT doesn’t look so hot on the Revenue front. But given Riot’s reputation for fair play and rejecting anything looking like P2W, what are some things that can be added to TFT to help the game monetize more without compromising Riot’s standards?

The challenge here is to design features that won’t alienate the hardline no-P2W Riot Players. These Players love Riot because of Riot’s Anti-P2W philosophy — the belief that Players should feel good when spending and when deciding not to spend. Before I suggest a few designs, let’s establish a few principles that we want to maintain that will prevent the new monetization leading to P2W:

1. Engagement > Stats: Benefits of Monetization should be tied to Engagement and Skill more so than just the addition of new Stats.
2. Focus on Skill: Embrace the Skill-Based nature of the Game.
3. Don’t Sacrifice Game Play: Monetization won’t matter if the Player just isn’t good at the Game

With these guidelines, let’s explore possible system additions to TFT that could help with their monetization.

Origins and Classes are Built for Metasystems

TFT has a wide array of Classes and Origins, with all Champions in the game having a combination of the two.

This type of classification of Champions is very typical of many RPGs you find on mobile. Just check out the five classifications of Star Wars: Galaxy of Heroes:

In RPGs, Classifications are a good way to organize content for the purposes of sales, bonuses, event restrictions, and other things you can monetize off of. Indeed, TFT already utilizes their Champion Classification with their set bonuses.

Here is an example of set bonuses by the Blademaster Class in TFT:

And here is an example of the set bonuses by the Chrono Origin in TFT:

The Core Strategy of TFT is how to balance Class and Origin set bonuses while managing EXP Levels, Individual Champion Star Levels and Item Equips. This balance opens the game up to several strategies as to how to play the game. Some include:

It is this balance of Set Bonuses, EXP Levels, Champion Star Levels and Item Equips that will allow TFT to add a stat system that it can monetize off of without making the game P2W or undermining Player Skill.

Randomness and Skill undermine Stats

It is a universal truth in F2P Games that Randomness and Skill generally undermine the value of Stats in RPG and Strategy games. The less valuable stats are, the harder it is to monetize off of stats. And TFT sets up a lot of things to ensure that individual Champion Stats don’t dictate who wins:

1. Set Bonuses: The Set Bonuses for Origins and Classes in TFT are staggering. If you look at the set bonuses posted above for the Blademaster Class and Chrono Origin, the top set bonuses dwarf the lower set bonuses, and can completely change how a group of Champions can perform in battle. Compare that to the relatively mild equipment set bonuses in World of Warcraft:

Don’t get me wrong, these set bonuses were significant at the time in Classic World of Warcraft. But that was because WoW’s Stat Economy overwhelmingly relied on Stats for performance. The more a game relies on stats, the more valuable each stat is. And thus, smaller set bonuses like this were more impactful. The massive set bonuses in TFT are bound to undermine the individual stats of Champions.

2. Random Store Offerings: Even if a Player goes into a match with a solid game plan, their strategy may be disrupted by unlucky store rolls.

The fact that Players cannot rely on getting the Champions they want in the Store undermines a statistical advantage a player may have. Add to that the balance between paying to Refresh the Store and the need to buy XP, and it would be near-impossible for a Player to rely on stats alone to muscle their way through to a top rank in a match.

3. Other Systems also Undermine Stats: Champion Counters, Item equips, Champion Placement on the Map, EXP Investment and more are all factors that undermine stats. TFT has so many factors that can affect a Player’s performance in a match. The strategic spending of coins and the Player’s skill in choosing a good combination of champions, increasing their army size through EXP, equipping the right items on the right champions, and more are what will determine who places high in a match and who comes in last.

All these factors should allow for moderate stat-based systems to be in the game without making the game P2W. Here is an example of a system that could create additional monetization opportunities for TFT while keeping the game skill-based:

Champion Mastery: Making Champions stronger the more they are used

The idea of Champion Mastery is pretty simple: the more a Champion is used, the stronger it gets. Champions would have mastery levels that exist outside of matches. A Mastery Level determines the Champion’s base stats when in a match. Look at Blitzcrank, for example.

As Blitzcrank’s Mastery Level increased, some of it’s base stats would grow:

A few things to note:

1. Not all stats need to be increased. Stats that have less inflationary potential like attack speed, crit rate and range would stay static. But other stats that are more open to be inflated would increase.
2. The stat increases need not be huge. One of the paradoxes of Strategy games is that as little as stats might matter, the more competitive players will go to great lengths to achieve those small stat gains. We can have Champion give a modest stat boost to only some stats, and have that be effective.
3. A Champion is considered Used if it was placed on the Battlefield for 3+ Rounds.

Players can increase a Champion’s Mastery Level by using it in Matches. At the end of the match, Players would earn Mastery Points for the Champions they used. The amount of points each used Champion earns is dependent on where the Player places in the Match. For example:

In this example, a Player who places 3rd would have each of their Champions used earn 12 Mastery Points.

Match Points required to increase a Champion’s Mastery Level increases with each Mastery Level.

The goal of a system like this is pretty simple:

1. The more a player plays, the stronger their Champions will get over time.
2. The more skillful a player is, the stronger their Champions will get over time.
3. Skill and Engagement both will lead to Champion Mastery Progress.

Monetize Mastery by selling Mastery Point Boosts

To Monetize off of Champion Mastery, I would sell options for Players to increase the amount of Mastery Points earned through Matches. These would come in the following forms:

Subscription IAPs that accelerate Mastery Points earned.

1. Low cost ($0.99 to $2.99 Subscriptions) would be sold to accelerate the amount of Mastery Points earned by Champions of specific Origins and Classes.
2. For example, there would be a $1.99 Blademaster Subscription, and a $2.99 Chrono subscription, etc.

While the Subscription is active, Mastery Points earned per match would increase.

Note that a lot of the point increases would occur at the lower place finishes. This allows for very skillful players who don’t want to pay to earn nearly the same amount of Mastery Points per Match as a spender, but less skillful players can use the subscriptions to Mastery their Champions faster and try to become more competitive.

The IAP Subscriptions would basically ensure that the Player makes meaningful mastery progress even if they don’t do well in a given match.

Auto-Chess Players tend to favor specific Origins and Classes. Selling Subscriptions based on Origins and Classes allows different levels of spenders to choose how much to spend based on how many Origins and Classes they want to try and optimize.

Daily Mastery Point Minigame

Given the use of Minigames across several genres, it seems like a Minigame would fit pretty well in TFT. Think about the Wheel Minigame in 8-Ball Pool:

When the Player first logs in during the day, they will see a circle randomly filled with Champions (similar to the beginning of the match).

1. Player taps a button and the Champions will being moving around the circle until one stops in from of the Player.
2. The Player will earn 10–100 Mastery Points for the Hero that stops.
3. The first “Spin” of the Wheel would be free, but subsequent spins would cost a $0.99 — $2.99 IAP.
4. While this is technically paying for immediate progress, the random aspect of it would deter spenders from heavily relying on this as a method of increasing their Champion Mastery levels versus playing actual matches.

• Ad-Based Temporary Boosts in all Mastery Points earned.

1. Players who watch Ads will get a 20% Mastery Point Boost for all Classes and Origin Champions for 4 hours. Players can watch multiple Ads to increase that Boost to 48 Hours max.
2. These Ads are 100% voluntary. Players would never be forced to watch an Ad if they don’t want to.
3. Purchasing an IAP Subscription will make that boost permanent for the Origin or Class aligned with that Subscription while the Subscription is active.
4. While Ad-Based Monetization has become big with more casual Idle Games, it has largely been underutilized in RPGs and Strategy Games. This is partly due to the fact that Ads have a negative reputation as things that can cheapen a brand.
5. Given TFT’s likely large user base, having a strong Ad-Based Monetization would likely derive a fair amount of revenue.
6. It also lets players who don’t want to spend still contribute to Revenue and get some benefits.

While I am a big advocate for using 100% Voluntary Ads in High-DAU games, the negative reputation they have as part of AAA games makes it unlikely that Riot or other Game Developers with Strong Brands will be adopting Ads anytime soon.

The value of the subscriptions is to not only allow players to progress faster, but also soften the blow on matches where Players don’t do as well. With a subscription active, Players will feel like they make progress even if they place very low.

Events will create Revenue Spikes

With Champion Mastery giving something for Players to work towards over time, the other area where TFT can boost it’s monetization comes from Events. Riot has already dabbled in Event Gameplay with League of Legends’ Clash Tournament Events. TFT has the opportunity to take what has already been done in LoL and push it further with more monetization opportunities that don’t undermine the skill-based nature of TFT Gameplay.

TFT already has a Solid Ranked system that keeps competitive players in the game and potentially boosts long-term retention. But the Rank System does little for monetization. Since the Ranked Season lasts months, there is no immediate need for Players to spend to advance in the Rank System (even if there were things to spend on).

Effective Events in TFT need the following qualities in order to successfully monetize:

1. Time-Limited Urgency: Players must have a limited amount of time to be successful
2. An Artificial Limiting Factor: Players must not be able to attempt the Event without any limitations
3. A Monetization Tool or Currency that relates to the Limiting Factor: TFT must be able to sell Players something that gets around the Limiting Factor.

Here are a couple Event designs that could do well with TFT:

Tournaments

Tournaments challenge Players to Place very high in a small number of Matches in order to advance. The emphasis is on high Match Placement, which in turn mainly emphasizes Player skill, though stats could matter too.

There are 4 Rounds:

1. Qualifying Rounds
2. Quarterfinal Rounds
3. Semifinal Rounds
4. Finals

These Rounds would play out over a two-week period:

Tournaments would occur on a two-week cadence

Players advance through the Rounds based on their aggregate Match Scores:

1. Qualifying Rounds: We group Players into Leaderboards of 20 Players. The Players play 3 matches to try and get the highest place in each match. Placement in the Matches will give Tournament Points.

Tournament Points from the 3 Matches determines where Players rank in the Qualifying Round Leaderboard. So the highest score in the Qualifying Rounds would be 24 (three 1st Place finishes). A player who gets 2nd Place, 3rd Place, and 5th Place would have a Leaderboard Score of 17.

At the end of the Qualifying Round, the top 10 Players on the leaderboard advance to the Semifinal Rounds. The remaining Players who don’t advance can try again in the next day’s qualifying Rounds. There are four Qualifying Rounds, so if a Player fails to advance in the first Qualifying Round, they can try again in the next Qualifying Round.

2. Quarterfinal Rounds: Quarterfinal Rounds behave the same as Qualifying Rounds, except Players play 4 Matches and the top score is 32.

3. Semifinal Rounds: Semifinal Rounds behave the same as Qualifying Rounds except Players play 5 Matches and the top score is 40

4. The Finals: The Finals behave differently from the other Rounds. In the Finals, all Players from the Semifinals compete in one leaderboard. Prizes are awarded based on ranking on the Leaderboard. If Players tie, the tie-breaker is the number of matches played overall, with fewer matches beating more matches. Two Players with the same score and same number of matches will each receive the prize for that Rank. The Finals require the Player to play 6 Matches, and have 48 as the top score.

Tournaments monetize by selling additional Match chances to Players.

Players rank on the Tournament Leader based on their Top 3, 4, 5, or 6 Match Scores. While Players can only count their top 3–6 Scores for the purposes of ranking on the Leaderboard, they are allowed to play more matches if they have Tournament Tokens.

At the beginning of the Round, the Player receives 3, 4, 5, or 6 free Matches so that they can place on the Leaderboard. After that, the Players pay a Tournament Token to play another match. If the Match Placement Score is greater than the lowest Match Score they received to place on that Tournament, that new score will replace the lowest score and the player has a higher new score. So if a Player has a 2nd Place, 3rd Place and 5th Place score in the Qualifying Round Leaderboard (7 + 6 + 4 = 17), and pays a Tournament Token to play another match and places 3rd again, that 3rd Place score (6) will replace the 5th Place score (4) to give the Player a new total leaderboard score (7 + 6 + 6 = 19).

Players can earn Tournament Tokens through the following:

1. Galaxy Pass Rewards
2. In the Store for an IAP

The desire to rank high enough on the Leaderboard to advance to the next Round should cause Players to purchase Tournament Tokens. Having an entry cost as an IAP has proved effective in some other games. In Hearthstone, Players can pay $1.99 or 150 Hard Currency to attempt the Arena.

IAP Costs for Event Entry aren’t new in this space.

Purchasing additional Match attempts with Tournament Tokens is not P2W. More skillful Players who regularly get in the top 3 or 4 of a match will likely be able to advance once or twice without paying a Tournament Token. If they purchase the Galaxy Pass, the most skillful players can bank their Tournament Tokens earned from the Galaxy Pass to use to get far into a Tournament. But Players who are unlucky in a Free Match and want to try and replace the bad score can pay a Tournament Token.

With Tournaments running every two weeks, Players can feel free to skip some tournaments and attempt others. Riot should also feel free to differentiate Tournaments along Origins and Classes, or through different Arenas. As with other types of events, it’s important to make Events feel new or different even if it’s one you ran before. As long as enough Players can engage in the Tournaments, there should be sizable monetization from Tournament Tokens.

Tactics Events

Given how critical Origins and Classes are to tactics used in Matches, it makes sense to have Events that stress those tactics. Tactics Events are one-day events that operate as normal events, but limit the potential Origins and Classes that can be picked to 4 Origins and 6 Classes. For example:

A new combination of Origins and Classes for the Tactics Event each Day will keep Players coming back every day.

The benefits of this format are:

1. Players who already excel with the use of Origins/Classes in this event can do even better.
2. Players who aren’t as familiar with the combos will have an easier time learning tactics with fewer possible options to pick from.
3. Should the Mastery System be adopted, Players who want to increase the mastery level of specific Origins and Classes will have more success doing it during this Event than in general gameplay.

Tactics Events require a Tactics Token. Tactics Tokens are given out in the same way as Tournament Tokens — through Galactic Pass Rewards and Store IAPs.

There are more events that can fit with TFT. It all depends on how much Riot feels comfortable pushing Players to engage with gameplay that is gated by inputs that are sold for money.

What is the Monetization Impact of these Events?

I’ve outlined three Systems in this Article. Based on the proposed designs, I would expect the following Monetization improvements:

1. Champion Mastery

Champion Master and the IAP Subscriptions, Minigame, and Ad Boosts are all aimed to increase core Monetization each day. As players join TFT on different days and decide to purchase subscriptions on different days, we should see some monetization from the Subscriptions each day. Similarly, Players who enjoy the Minigame and are apt to spend a few dollars will contribute to daily Monetization. Finally, nonspenders will engage with Ad Boosts to increase the Mastery Points earned. Those Ads watched will provide a non-insignificant source of revenue given TFT’s expected audience size.

2. Tournaments

Tournaments are designed to create revenue spikes on certain days during the Event. When Tournaments first start, we probably wouldn’t see a lot of spend on Tournament Tokens during the Qualifying Rounds, as Players have multiple attempts to get through the Qualifying Rounds. Beginning with the Quarterfinal Rounds, we should begin to see more spend on Tournament Tokens. Revenue will begin spiking during the Semifinal Rounds, and will reach it’s peak during the Finals. This revenue spike behavior should repeat as Tournaments repeat.

3. Tactics Events

Like Champion Mastery, Tactics Events should raise core monetization each day, with small spikes on days when the Origin/Class combination is very compelling to the bulk of Players. Tactics Events also give Riot an opportunity to use Player data when it comes to Origin/Class combos to ensure that the Origin/Class offerings in each day’s Tactics Events will be compelling to at least a good chunk of the Player base.

F2P Mechanics have proven to be capable of earning a game billions of dollars over the years. Yet not all F2P Mechanics are equal. Some designs absolutely do make a game P2W. But others can not only avoid making a game P2W, but can add long-term direction and goals that will make the player experience more satisfying. We will see what Riot chooses to do with TFT.