Groundhog Day 2024: Punxsutawney Phil’s Winter Forecast Is In

Pennsylvania’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, emerged from his burrow on Friday predicting an early spring, breaking a three-year streak of declaring six more weeks of winter.

Punxsutawney’s Groundhog Club woke Phil up at 7:25 a.m. ET for the town’s long-running annual Groundhog Day ceremony.

Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania is home to the country’s oldest Groundhog Day ceremony — a tradition that started in 1887.

Phil predicted six more weeks of winter in 2023, 2022 and 2021. In 2020 and 2019, Phil predicted early springs.

According to the NOAA, Phil’s weather predictions have been correct 30 percent of the time over the last 10 years.

How accurate was Phil in 2023? The NOAA found that in 2023 the U.S. saw “above average temperatures in February” and “slightly below average temperatures in March.”

“The average contiguous U.S. temperature during February 2023 was 36.5°F. It was 2.6°F above the 20th century average. […] March 2023 was cooler than average in the contiguous U.S. The average temperature was 40.6°F, 0.9°F below the 20th-century average.”

Phil may be right this year: according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, large parts of the United States are expected to see “above-average temperatures” this February.

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